weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Jerry..starting to get worried, really worried..need to see some signs in the next 10 days.say by Dec 10th or I have my doubts about at least the first part of the winter Meh.....it rarely is decent here before mid December. Might as well let this pattern reign now vs 30 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 GEFS warmer this run through the weekend longer term still looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nice reinforcing and stronger cold shot around 12/10.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nice reinforcing and stronger cold shot around 12/10.... Looks "nice" for 2 days, then it moderates again. E PAC high is retrograding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Looks "nice" for 2 days, then it moderates again. E PAC high is retrograding. It's a gradient pattern....thicknesses stay low over us so one can hope we're on the right side of e gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Sunday should be near 40 and cloudy in Buffalo. Perfect for a fottball game. Only thing better would obviosuly be snow falling its not like snow falls all the time in buffalo anyways. you would have had to be lucky to time it just right with a lake effect event...... best chances of snow are always on I-81 between syracuse and ART, that place is a snow factory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 its not like snow falls all the time in buffalo anyways. you would have had to be lucky to time it just right with a lake effect event...... best chances of snow are always on I-81 between syracuse and ART, that place is a snow factory. I was just hopeful that the pattern was conducive to see some lake effect snow. I've never been out there in the winter..so was hoping even in like ROC or SYR I would see some. Friday nite looks like the nite that happens and its over by Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 its not like snow falls all the time in buffalo anyways. you would have had to be lucky to time it just right with a lake effect event...... best chances of snow are always on I-81 between syracuse and ART, that place is a snow factory. they've sucked this year just like the rest of us lol. Buffalo has a shot at the Dec. 8th record for latest measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Sometimes when i think our threads are awful and almost unreadable..I'll go read the NYC threads and realize how much I actually love ours. Their threads are absolutely unreadable..The Trials(josh) has got to be the worst and most annoying poster on the board. I thought he was bad in the Yankees threads till i saw his nonsense in the wx section . HM(no Messenegr not Margusity) think around mid month twds the holidays we'll lock in a sustained pattern. We don't necc need a -NAO for that..but it would be nice if the AO would go negative. Well hopefully that ridge can build up a little more in the NPAC. It's sort of in a position that doesn't guarantee a sustained wintry pattern, but it wouldn't take much for an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Probably not a good place for this guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nice reinforcing and stronger cold shot around 12/10.... naturally, since that is the day that starts the change... I'm done with RevKev...I'm ready for RebJer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 naturally, since that is the day that starts the change... I'm done with RevKev...I'm ready for RebJer Ole man winter reporting for duty! First though he has to go outdoors in the torch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 euro is a bit stronger with that impulse late in the week...would maybe produce some very light snow or rain showers friday night into part of saturday. also makes for a fairly chilly day on saturday. 850s wouldn't suggest it's that cold but first glance looks to be the kind of day without a whole lot of temp recovery thanks to little mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Buffalo has a shot at the Dec. 8th record for latest measurable snowfall. I expect the lakes will start cranking after that big cold front goes through on the 6th or 7th. Haven't looked close enough to see what the wind direction would be, but Buffalo should be able to get in on something I'd think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 euro is a bit stronger with that impulse late in the week...would maybe produce some very light snow or rain showers friday night into part of saturday. also makes for a fairly chilly day on saturday. 850s wouldn't suggest it's that cold but first glance looks to be the kind of day without a whole lot of temp recovery thanks to little mixing. Good we need some cold days. Bugs of all types are out an active again including hornets. This has gotten silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Details could kill it. The +PNA ridge is situating too far west in a lot of these operational runs, and that is causing SE heights to stay elevated at least excuse imaginable. The cold flaps in and out and doesn't commit because of that nuance. If you are a cold weather enthusiast, at least the ensemble means are better situated - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 euro is a bit stronger with that impulse late in the week...would maybe produce some very light snow or rain showers friday night into part of saturday. also makes for a fairly chilly day on saturday. 850s wouldn't suggest it's that cold but first glance looks to be the kind of day without a whole lot of temp recovery thanks to little mixing. I saw that. Maybe mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 euro is a bit stronger with that impulse late in the week...would maybe produce some very light snow or rain showers friday night into part of saturday. also makes for a fairly chilly day on saturday. 850s wouldn't suggest it's that cold but first glance looks to be the kind of day without a whole lot of temp recovery thanks to little mixing. Some decent news . Just nuance snows . Better than a dry fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 euro has some real deal cold coming south into the conus early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 euro has some real deal cold coming south into the conus early next week. How warm does it get us early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 euro has some real deal cold coming south into the conus early next week. The ridge axis out west better be in a better longitude or else - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 It's also trying to develop something along the front at hr 186. Prob rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I expect the lakes will start cranking after that big cold front goes through on the 6th or 7th. Haven't looked close enough to see what the wind direction would be, but Buffalo should be able to get in on something I'd think? yeah...that could be the ticket...it's going to be close though..I mean that's pretty far out there...could happen a day or two later...or a day or two earlier for that matter. The 00z euro at day 10 is very nice...but again, day 10 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 How warm does it get us early next week? it's fairly mild sunday and monday (40s/50s) but there's a good push of low level cold coming in by tuesday. it's also got a little wave the runs along the boundary on tuesday...verbatim it would probably be some flakes for at least some of the area. of course...day 7 / 8 here so fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 it's fairly mild sunday and monday (40s/50s) but there's a good push of low level cold coming in by tuesday. it's also got a little wave the runs along the boundary on tuesday...verbatim it would probably be some flakes for at least some of the area. of course...day 7 / 8 here so fwiw. The overall theme certainly sounds promising. Soundse like a nice solid cold air push later next week at the least and if we get any luck maybe some snow in the same general time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The overall theme certainly sounds promising. Soundse like a nice solid cold air push later next week at the least and if we get any luck maybe some snow in the same general time frame. there would at least by a day or two there with some pretty chilly air in new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 That's a nice cold shot on the euro indeed. Hopefully it verifies like that, although would not be shocked if it modified a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That's a ncie cold shot on the euro indeed. Hopefully it verifies like that. yeah 2m in the 20s and 30s on wednesday. coldest since last season i guess - minus what happened during the halloween snowstorm. the flow is not great behind it so it would be somewhat short-lived for the real cold...though at face value it doesn't look like it would be a massive warm-up on the backside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Damn...the euro has that s/w in the pnhandle as a reinforcing arctic blast comes in. I'm hearing those bells of 1960! But verbatim on the op it's probably a swfe but plenty of antecedent cold....probably starts the day qt 15-20 in many areas of the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That's a nice cold shot on the euro indeed. Hopefully it verifies like that, although would not be shocked if it modified a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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