CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Although maybe a bias, euro wants to eject some energy into the deep south at d10. That might be the Sam storm and Phil's 2004 analog fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 This isn't bad. Whatever comes at us from the SW should be good for a front ender. Also, on the second link, note the heights up just NE of the Caspian. It's the op run but I like how the pattern is evolving. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011112812!!/ http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20hemisphere!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011112812!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Dude, give it a rest.....that crap is just as tiresome as the delusional arctic assertions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Although maybe a bias, euro wants to eject some energy into the deep south at d10. That might be the Sam storm and Phil's 2004 analog fetish. The D10 depiction is OK...would have a chance. But that time frame is clown range anyway. There should at least be some cold in place for any system that wants to travel NEward...so it could make a decent SWFE setup if it didn't want to be a coastal. There's a big ridge near FLA and off the coast which makes me think a SWFE would be more favorable...and the ensemble mean seems to like that idea anyway the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 The D10 depiction is OK...would have a chance. But that time frame is clown range anyway. There should at least be some cold in place for any system that wants to travel NEward...so it could make a decent SWFE setup if it didn't want to be a coastal. There's a big ridge near FLA and off the coast which makes me think a SWFE would be more favorable...and the ensemble mean seems to like that idea anyway the past couple days. I think some of the GEFS were trying to do something around that time frame as well. Clown range like you said, but that 8-11th time frame seems to be hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I think some of the GEFS were trying to do something around that time frame as well. Clown range like you said, but that 8-11th time frame seems to be hinted at. Still Novemeber and we have some "hints" on the map with 2 events under our belt....not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 still interested in that s/w coming through friday night. it's pretty potent on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Dude, give it a rest.....that crap is just as tiresome as the delusional arctic assertions. That's a picture of a hedge which is what he did. You get it now? Everyones at one anothers throats, I thought it'd be humorous but I guess it's only okay to do those things when we're about to have snow. The 10th ish is a period all models highlight for some opportunity and the 3rd is not off the table despite the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Although maybe a bias, euro wants to eject some energy into the deep south at d10. That might be the Sam storm and Phil's 2004 analog fetish. Prolly have a better shot at that being ice up this way given the raging -EPO/ +NAO boner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Still Novemeber and we have some "hints" on the map with 2 events under our belt....not bad. At this time range it could mean everything, but just discussing what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 they've sucked this year just like the rest of us lol. Buffalo has a shot at the Dec. 8th record for latest measurable snowfall. well we've all sucked back this way and up here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I was just hopeful that the pattern was conducive to see some lake effect snow. I've never been out there in the winter..so was hoping even in like ROC or SYR I would see some. Friday nite looks like the nite that happens and its over by Sat i hear ya man, would be a nice bonus to the trip. but you should really consider doing a lake effect snowchase at some point. i try to make a trip a couple times a winter down I-81.....its well worth it. i've never gone in a big group of weenies though...that would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That's a picture of a hedge which is what he did. You get it now? Everyones at one anothers throats, I thought it'd be humorous but I guess it's only okay to do those things when we're about to have snow. The 10th ish is a period all models highlight for some opportunity and the 3rd is not off the table despite the GFS. I haven't been at anyone's throat.....I just don't see the need to throw rocks @ a bee hive, especially in the DISCO thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Prolly have a better shot at that being ice up this way given the raging -EPO/ +NAO boner Unfortunately it's either snow or rain imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Unfortunately it's either snow or rain imby. tru dhat ... i wonder what's the biggest icing scenario ever for Willmington. i think there was a famous ice storm back in the earlier part of last century that was pretty involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Accuweather has me at .5" ice next Tuesday followed by a low of 15 the next night lol. Lock it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Oh my goodness. I wonder what the greatest ever continental temperature gradient was between Manatoba and Florida. The UKMET is must about about 125F of differential there on D6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 tru dhat ... i wonder what's the biggest icing scenario ever for Willmington. i think there was a famous ice storm back in the earlier part of last century that was pretty involved. Largest that I can recall took place in March believe it or not, superior solar irradiance be damned.....1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Oh my goodness. I wonder what the greatest ever continental temperature gradient was between Manatoba and Florida. The UKMET is must about about 125F of differential there on D6! Flow likely too compressed for a biggie...which lends creedence to the notion that its swf or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Largest that I can recall took place in March believe it or not, superior solar irradiance be damned.....1990. I once saw ZR up to 1/4" in Rockport out on the eastern tip of Cape Ann so I know it can happen given the right circumstance. I realize in retrospect it seems reasonable why you haven't seen much of any, but I am also wondering if you're just not stuck in some kind of wack-job multi-decadal bad luck streak just the same. If so ...welcome to my world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I once saw ZR up to 1/4" in Rockport out on the eastern tip of Cape Ann so I know it can happen given the right circumstance. I realize in retrospect it seems reasonable why you haven't seen much of any, but I am also wondering if you're just not stuck in some kind of wack-job multi-decadal bad luck streak just the same. If so ...welcome to my world. There was another pretty decent one in that crap winter of 1994-95, I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Flow likely too compressed for a biggie...which lends creedence to the notion that its swf or go home. yeah, as depicted that sarks - no question... don't usually spin up glory with 588+DM height core over Florida - just a little rule of thumb i happen to subscribe to considering it flucks up storms about 101% of the time. of course, by storm i mean a classice cored out deep stem winder nor'easter replete with cold and warm intersecting conveyor belts. If we want to get into overrunning and shiz, sure ...but that's why that looks more icy the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nice reinforcing and stronger cold shot around 12/10.... Step by step things are lining up. Any 4 star restaurants close to you? It's going to be a tasty .meal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Step by step things are lining up. Any 4 star restaurants close to you? It's going to be a tasty .meal. If I win we're even as I owe messenger a dinner from a bet in February...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 If I win we're even as I owe messenger a dinner from a bet in February...lol. I still owe you one...will you be there on the 10th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 The ensembles defintely don't have as sharp a cold blast as the euro op. Not too surprising I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Euro ensembles? Out to D10 so far. They support the idea of a SWFE type pattern after Dec 8...prob between Dec 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I haven't been at anyone's throat.....I just don't see the need to throw rocks @ a bee hive, especially in the DISCO thread. It wasn't. It was a picture of a hedge which had nothing to do with warm or cold but a statement he made. It was light hearted, indirect, and I thought pretty easy for most to understand but it goes back to the point of why it's negative for the site when stuff is let go like this morning and a ruckus breaks out. everyone ends up on edge and assumes the worst. I was poking fun at Scott in a very good natured way as he was saying the Euro is pretty darn cold next week but that it may moderate....nothing personal or intended to start a ruckus. Now what did the euro ens show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Out to D10 so far. They support the idea of a SWFE type pattern after Dec 8...prob between Dec 8-10. It defintely has that look as that ridge tries to build...hopefully not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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