Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Thats one sweet euro run today IMHO. If I lived in WI or MI I'd be thrilled with my prospects the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 BTW the December 7th threat is right where we want it on the GFS right now. Similar to 07 and 08, it originates from energy over the SW US and tracks toward the Ohio Valley. However we have this massive trough over the Northeast that shreds anything coming our way. We get a weak surface reflection to our southeast before it's swept away. My guess is that the trough becomes a little less overbearing over the next few days, and also slides west a little, while the southeast ridge becomes a little stronger. This could end up being a SWF overrunning event for SNE Strongly agree. And that's a hellaceous cld dump on the euro when it goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 BTW the December 7th threat is right where we want it on the GFS right now. Similar to 07 and 08, it originates from energy over the SW US and tracks toward the Ohio Valley. However we have this massive trough over the Northeast that shreds anything coming our way. We get a weak surface reflection to our southeast before it's swept away. My guess is that the trough becomes a little less overbearing over the next few days, and also slides west a little, while the southeast ridge becomes a little stronger. This could end up being a SWF overrunning event for SNE Yeah that is on deck. You can even see how a shuffle here and there on the euro op would produce that too. Anytime you have a trough in the southwest, and a low offshore...seems like a good idea to beware of a more nw track. Of course it is in la la land, but it doesn't appear to be a complete pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 And when does MET winter start? December 1st? And when does it begin to step down temperature wise to more seasonal? Looks to be right after the storm lifts into the great lakes ... According to all the ensemble guidance the pattern is changing to a more colder pattern..EVEN if just seasonal temps- that will be able to get the snow chances involved if we have storms within the time frame to track etc...Winter has not yet begun and yet we see people all over from New England to the Northern Mid Atlantic to the Mid Atlantic already cancelling winter! Makes no sense at all! I was joking, see my previous post two up from that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Just saw the end of the 12z Euro run. Going with it's bias, it's holding back the energy over the SW US. And WOW that's some cold air coming south. There's a nice looking disturbance coming over the top of the ridge, with the ridge staying in tact, and ready to spring back up once the s/w moves downstream. This is a wild weenie guess, but I think if we extrapolated this out, it would be a major winter storm for someone in the eastern half of the nation round about the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 "being done" calls in late November FTL. Go read the thread, genius...and then the title of this thread... perhaps i should have put a "...for now" at the end of my other post... i know we're all on edge here because we want snow...but goodness gracious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is much closer to the Euro than the op GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is much closer to the Euro than the op GFS Of course it is....the op is coked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Declaratory statements about the weather post 7 days is dumb either way. Enjoy the weather we have this week. No shi* the pattern is changing for the "colder" if it changed to the warmer it would be 75 next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If I lived in WI or MI I'd be thrilled with my prospects of getting into a deformation band the next two weeks, but thankfully we don't need to. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If I lived in WI or MI I'd be thrilled with my prospects the next two weeks. You may actually need to move north of the pike to see the goods. I'd hate to have BOS get that inch or more by 12/10 and have you mowing........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 You may actually need to move north of the pike to see the goods. I'd hate to have BOS get that inch or more by 12/10 and have you mowing........ well, snow chasing is possible, and fun...i did it for that pre-halloween storm...20-22inches in Westminster...i rented a cheap motel for the night...tracked the banding on my laptop...went outside at 2am to build a snowman, and the motel owner told me if i didn't go back in my room and go to bed like a normal person, he would kick me out of the motel...apparently he doesn't have the sickness...or we can talk some of our friends in NNE into hosting a "Snow Chase Party"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Snowblitz in WNY Dec 3rd on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 well, snow chasing is possible, and fun...i did it for that pre-halloween storm...20-22inches in Westminster...i rented a cheap motel for the night...tracked the banding on my laptop...went outside at 2am to build a snowman, and the motel owner told me if i didn't go back in my room and go to bed like a normal person, he would kick me out of the motel...apparently he doesn't have the sickness...or we can talk some of friends in NNE into hosting a "Snow Chase Party"! I'll never, ever foregive myself for not having made the drive to Will's for that, but I just didn't expect the event to suck as badly as id did, at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 well, snow chasing is possible, and fun...i did it for that pre-halloween storm...20-22inches in Westminster...i rented a cheap motel for the night...tracked the banding on my laptop...went outside at 2am to build a snowman, and the motel owner told me if i didn't go back in my room and go to bed like a normal person, he would kick me out of the motel...apparently he doesn't have the sickness...or we can talk some of our friends in NNE into hosting a "Snow Chase Party"! I thnk we should arrange a 10 day trip to the tug every year. They worship snow there Ad we'd be right at home....until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Sorry to go a bit OT for this thread but BOS will come in far less torch today with a max of 50-51 unless it comes up at night. Normal is 48 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Here is what I mean by "No threats shown, but the hints are there..." Notice the troughs in the Great Lakes and the ridge sticking up from the big se US high pressure in this image. That sharp ridge sticking up into New England is probably a good indication of a surface high to our north at hr 372. The trough is probably a signal of some sort of low pressure moving east...looks to me like this could be an overrunning event. I'm just showing you this as an example....I'm not saying this prog will happen as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 You may actually need to move north of the pike to see the goods. I'd hate to have BOS get that inch or more by 12/10 and have you mowing........ $25 Boston doesn't see an inch or more by 12/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 "being done" calls in late November FTL. I'm not singling you out here. Claiming victory is equally useless. Let the pattern play out and debate the post not the person. No personal attacks will be permitted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 $25 Boston doesn't see an inch or more by 12/10 No dice. Let's stick to 12/25. I may be stupid but I'm not dumb...lol.... Climo says it's tough in any one event till past 12/10 but it sure can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I'm not singling you out here. Claiming victory is equally useless. Let the pattern play out and debate the post not the person. No personal attacks will be permitted. I wasn't trying to attack, sorry. I just don't understand why people are calling it dead now, before winter's even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 No dice. Let's stick to 12/25. I may be stupid but I'm not dumb...lol.... Climo says it's tough in any one event till past 12/10 but it sure can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I wasn't trying to attack, sorry. I just don't understand why people are calling it dead now, before winter's even started. It's only because winter in the form of a lot of snow started in late October. So the "wait" to normal winter is killing a lot of folks. That and the heat stroke a lot of people are suffering from in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I'll never, ever foregive myself for not having made the drive to Will's for that, but I just didn't expect the event to suck as badly as id did, at my place. I thnk we should arrange a 10 day trip to the tug every year. They worship snow there Ad we'd be right at home....until spring. i'm in for a Tug Hill chase...my car gets 35mpg... unfortunately, the current pattern we are in isn't conducive for big LES events either...however, this pattern is keeping the lakes warm, so if we do get an LES event in the future, those bands are going to annihilate some folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Snowblitz in WNY Dec 3rd on the Euro SW winds and Buffalo will get annihilated since the lakes are primed and ready to go...hope you plan to get out there before the even starts crankin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I wasn't trying to attack, sorry. I just don't understand why people are calling it dead now, before winter's even started. Back to my first line. I was not singling you out. Winter is clearly dead you the next 7 days or so but than again, it's technically not even winter. If this was the middle of January, I'd start to be concerned. Looking at the latest 12z runs, I agree with what is being said. Gradient pattern setting up to begin the month of December. The problem is we just don't know where the boundary will set up. It will likely be in the area and those of us closer to the coast will have issues, undoubtedly. Climo will favor the interior and areas to the N with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Back to my first line. I was not singling you out. Winter is clearly dead you the next 7 days or so but than again, it's technically not even winter. If this was the middle of January, I'd start to be concerned. Looking at the latest 12z runs, I agree with what is being said. Gradient pattern setting up to begin the month of December. The problem is we just don't know where the boundary will set up. It will likely be in the area and those of us closer to the coast will have issues, undoubtedly. Climo will favor the interior and areas to the N with this. I have a feeling NNE will probably make out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I have a feeling NNE will probably make out well. Honestly, I've been pretty confident about that area given the strength of the La Nina and lack of blocking. I think if we look back at this timeframe 30 days from we will have seen NNE receive as much snow as they have already seen thus far since that Oct storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Back to my first line. I was not singling you out. Winter is clearly dead you the next 7 days or so but than again, it's technically not even winter. If this was the middle of January, I'd start to be concerned. Looking at the latest 12z runs, I agree with what is being said. Gradient pattern setting up to begin the month of December. The problem is we just don't know where the boundary will set up. It will likely be in the area and those of us closer to the coast will have issues, undoubtedly. Climo will favor the interior and areas to the N with this. those with Latitude or Elevation, or both...will be the winners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Sorry to go a bit OT for this thread but BOS will come in far less torch today with a max of 50-51 unless it comes up at night. Normal is 48 today. Been away but just noticed bos +4.3 and orh +4.8 for the month and going up up up the next 3 days, would be something to pull a decent winter out after a historically warm met autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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