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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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Euro continues the trend and now we have solid guiance in all corners for an EPO shift. First step...the EPO, 2nd step, weenies aglow, 3rd step, we get AO, 4th step, we hohoho, 5th step, PNA, 6th step, cold's here to stay, 6th step we get some snow, naked angels look out below, 7th step we sing with glee......it looks like '93.....step by step....

:lol:

i'm about to pull the trigger here. the last 10 days or so of modeling, depsite their waffling, are showing a clear trend for here.

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

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While the best, the EC has a warmer bias more than the other models in the mid-latitudes. GFS does not have a cold bias in the extended range anymore...it has a slight warm bias...at least for the 20N-80N sector of the globe.

That's interesting I wonder why that is..do you think the magnitude of the bias is proportional to how far out the forecast is it just as valid even 24 or 48 hrs out?

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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That's interesting I wonder why that is..do you think the magnitude of the bias is proportional to how far out the forecast is it just as valid even 24 or 48 hrs out?

at least for the last month or so...the euro bias has grown with how far out the forecast is...the GFS bias remains similar at all time intervals. In order to figure out if there is more bias in one region compared to others, you'd have to do some substantial work...this is just hemispheric bias. The GFS used to have a prominent cold bias but that was corrected in the new physics package.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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Gradient patterns are my favorite because a warm look can deliver 12F and swirling snow or ice. OTOH, it can deliver that 60 miles north with me in 39 and rain. But the EPO wants to play and I love 1993 best of all since 1960-61.

Even with that big west coast ridge being forecasted on most of the models...it still seems as if they are having a tough bleeding significant cold air south into the northern tier of the US...I'd like to see that change.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Defintely looks gradient like. Despite that big ridge, the cold defintely does not appear to want to plow into the US as Nick noted. However, maybe we can get one or two instances with high pressure trying to sneak enough cold in the lower levels. At least torch like weather appears to be over. With the exception of a poster in ne CT who's elevation is just under 1,000ft...it appears to be going AWT. Not a wintry regime, but hopefully a couple of chances. Maybe 2 chances in the first week with the second one near the 6th or 7th? The 3rd of Dec is not looking hot, but we'll see.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Defintely looks gradient like. Despite that big ridge, the cold defintely does not appear to want to plow into the US as Nick noted. However, maybe we can get one or two instances with high pressure trying to sneak enough cold in the lower levels. At least torch like weather appears to be over. With the exception of a poster in ne CT who's elevation is just under 1,000ft...it appears to be going AWT. Not a wintry regime, but hopefully a couple of chances. Maybe 2 chances in the first week with the second one near the 6th or 7th? The 3rd of Dec is not looking hot, but we'll see.

Agree with this.

Gradient pattern... maybe a wintry threat the week of the 5th... but no big cold.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Gradient patterns are my favorite because a warm look can deliver 12F and swirling snow or ice. OTOH, it can deliver that 60 miles north with me in 39 and rain. But the EPO wants to play and I love 1993 best of all since 1960-61.

I can picture a season like that, displaced ~50 miles or so to the N, given ENSO strength...

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weathafella

weathafella

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I would take snowfall in the 75-80 inch range. What did you guys finish with last winter? (BOS, specifically) ~85"?

I think 81 inches. 1993-94.....96 ad change. 2 years later, 107.6. And don't forget 1992-93....83.9. That was a heckuva run sandwiched around the 1994-95 stinker of 14 measly inches.

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