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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Man glad I do not forecast for a living. What a mess that cutoff is for the south and Appalachia. Think the GFS is too fast?

Already the constipation is evident in the sense that my wife's flight to ORD tonight is on final approach 45 minutes ahead of schedule. No westerlies tonight.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Those all have slim chances and some none at all.......... :lol:

SOUTHERN STREAM DEEP CYCLONE FORMING/DRIFTING ACROSS THE DEEP

SOUTH...

PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT LOOK WELL INITIALIZED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN

WYOMING. ITS HEIGHTS IN THE SHORTWAVES VICINITY AT 500 HPA ARE IN

ERROR ABOUT 20 METERS...BUT THIS COULD BE WHY ITS DEEP CYCLONE

ENDS UP NORTH OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM

LOOKS BETTER INITIALIZED HERE.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Euro ensembles look pretty good. They are actually better looking than the GEFS now, which is an about face. Better to have the more skillful ensembles range look the best imo. They feature a strong ridge in the GOA the whole time.

We'll have to see if they hold on, but this is the best I've felt in a while. It doesn't mean shiat because the devil is in the details with any storm track. but it's getting better. Lets just hope they hold.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

Euro ensembles look pretty good. They are actually better looking than the GEFS now, which is an about face. Better to have the more skillful ensembles range look the best imo. They feature a strong ridge in the GOA the whole time.

We'll have to see if they hold on, but this is the best I've felt in a while. It doesn't mean shiat because the devil is in the details with any storm track. but it's getting better. Lets just hope they hold.

Ensembles contradicting the weeklies?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Ensembles contradicting the weeklies?

They are a little cooler than what week 2 shows. The weeklies are averaged for each week, so you can't see the fluctuations each day like you can on the ensembles, but week 3 and esp week 4 weren't terrible up this way.

The ensembles are still hostile for the MA region, and even up here they aren't perfect, but the 00z run looked much better.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

They get better after that...the core of the cold actually comes towards eastern Canada.

that's good to read. that's a nice + anomaly now in the GOA. maybe we can ride the benefits of that ridging just enough...and then maybe the north atlantic can start to cooperate sometime down the road later in the month.

the good thing is...we will eventually shake this early october weather and things are going to start to feel more like they should as we get into the holiday season. kevin won't have to do his morning run in his cocktail-weenie hammock anymore.

i think this next 7 days will be that period when patience is going to be big. :lol: maybe the cooler air just takes hold and pushes right in, but it never seems to go that way. we could still be looking at the end of the 1st week, into the 2nd week of dec before we are really feeling like winter. either way...better than 63F.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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The only thing we need to watch out for is the PNA and EPO at the end of the run. The PNA may fall again, especially as the ridge retrogrades towards the Aleutians. If that is the case, then we will need that ridge to be amplified, otherwise the se ridge will flex.

that's what some of the gefs runs have done now and then. produced a good looking period, followed by lowering heights in the GOA and flattening the flow across the conus.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Euro ensembles look pretty good. They are actually better looking than the GEFS now, which is an about face. Better to have the more skillful ensembles range look the best imo. They feature a strong ridge in the GOA the whole time.

We'll have to see if they hold on, but this is the best I've felt in a while. It doesn't mean shiat because the devil is in the details with any storm track. but it's getting better. Lets just hope they hold.

It's a privilege to be alotted the opportunity to discuss such details.

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