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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Good news abounds this morning. The snow/cold is on our doorstep now. if you look off to the N you can see a wall of white gathering steam and heading south.

2 snow events this coming week? Anafront rain to snow Thursday and then another event Saturday?

Thursday is gone. The one near the third is the one that may be an offshore low with an inv trough or something, but it's 180hrs out. I liked the 3rd for a while now, but earlier it seemed like it could be a SWFE. Now it may be nothing much at all..but hopefully we can get something out of it. Next chance after that may be on the 6th give or take a day I suppose.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Thursday is gone. The one near the third is the one that may be an offshore low with an inv trough or something, but it's 180hrs out. I liked the 3rd for a while now, but earlier it seemed like it could be a SWFE. Now it may be nothing much at all..but hopefully we can get something out of it. Next chance after that may be on the 6th give or take a day I suppose.

We'll see models bring back the anafront deal on Thursday. Always happens..I'd expect the Euro to bring it back today or tomorrow

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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We'll see models bring back the anafront deal on Thursday. Always happens..I'd expect the Euro to bring it back today or tomorrow

Not with that cutoff. It's not even close to anafrontal now. The only thing it will do is allow the boundary to fester well offshore and perhaps allow that piece of energy coming around on Saturday to ignite a low way offshore.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Pattern change imminent

VALID 12Z WED NOV 30 2011 - 12Z SAT DEC 03 2011

...WINTRY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...

AS WE HEAD INTO DECEMBER...TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TEAMS

UP WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFFSHORE

THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA SHOULD LEAD TO A POSITIVELY TILTED

TROUGH SPANNING THE CONTINENT FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN

UNITED STATES WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING ACROSS THE EAST. THE

GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE TO ABOUND OUT

EAST...WHERE A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET MADE THE MOST

SENSE PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION /PMDHMD/. THIS

PREFERENCE WAS KEPT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...THE END OF THE UKMET

RUN. THEREAFTER...THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE

AGREEMENT SO USED A COMPROMISE OF THOSE PIECES OF GUIDANCE LATE

THIS WEEK. THIS SET OF MODEL PREFERENCES MAINTAINED REASONABLE

CONTINUITY.

SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO

VALLEY EARLY ON WITHIN THE EASTERN CYCLONE COMMA HEAD UNTIL THE

SYSTEM EXITS INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ITS

WAKE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY

THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS MONTANA

AND WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OFF

TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE

INTERIOR WEST SHOULD LEAD TO OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE WEST COAST

BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

HOWEVER...NEAR THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE

WEST... MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT

BASIN/SOUTHWEST/POSSIBLY THE SIERRA NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEK.

DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR EAST THE DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE WEST

TRACKS...SNOW IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FROM THE BIG COUNTRY OF TEXAS

NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT

LAKES/NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO DROP SOME SNOW FROM THURSDAY INTO

SATURDAY.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Pattern change imminent

VALID 12Z WED NOV 30 2011 - 12Z SAT DEC 03 2011

...WINTRY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...

AS WE HEAD INTO DECEMBER...TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TEAMS

UP WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFFSHORE

THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA SHOULD LEAD TO A POSITIVELY TILTED

TROUGH SPANNING THE CONTINENT FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN

UNITED STATES WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING ACROSS THE EAST. THE

GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE TO ABOUND OUT

EAST...

Meh transient :scooter::snowman::snowman:

seriously the GEFS from the 19th on advertised this change very well. Hopefully after a brief relaxation, a transient type warmup, we see balls to the wall cold. and hey whats up with the AO, precipitous drop or computer error?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I still want to see the nest several runs hold onto this. We may see models waver which is normal, but if the next 2-3 days keep this idea...usually that's a good sign. It's still possible we may see a cutter or brief mix to rain type deal during the 1st 10 days or so of December as we eventually try to cool down.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I'm cautiously optimistic. It's not exactly the most stable pattern in the world we're heading into, so we're going to have a relatively short window to cash in for any snow, before the pattern reloads by the middle of the month

That's what I'm a little concerned about as that ridge retrogrades. At least by then, the cold in Canada is usually pretty much stable and may have more of a tendency to seep south with ridging that is less amplified. I just need to see some more runs to actually feel more confident.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

That's what I'm a little concerned about as that ridge retrogrades. At least by then, the cold in Canada is usually pretty much stable and may have more of a tendency to seep south with ridging that is less amplified. I just need to see some more runs to actually feel more confident.

what type of anomalies are we looking at in eastern canada and northeast for Days 10-15.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Meh transient :scooter::snowman::snowman:

seriously the GEFS from the 19th on advertised this change very well. Hopefully after a brief relaxation, a transient type warmup, we see balls to the wall cold. and hey whats up with the AO, precipitous drop or computer error?

Why don't you wait to see how much snow you get between now and Dec 15....I'll bet you a month of no posting that it's 5" or less.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Why don't you wait to see how much snow you get between now and Dec 15....I'll bet you a month of no posting that it's 5" or less.

What is it with you and your betting fetish? I am staying on topic per rules, please bring this to the banter thread.

I just wanted the death vortex to die and it did, progress when there was none. Moving on, looks like we have a shot at some accumulating next week.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

That's what I'm a little concerned about as that ridge retrogrades. At least by then, the cold in Canada is usually pretty much stable and may have more of a tendency to seep south with ridging that is less amplified. I just need to see some more runs to actually feel more confident.

What I see as a possibility is the ridge retrograding, then amplifying into the Aleutians and western Alaska, which would help send some real cold air from northern Canada south toward the northern Rockies and western Plains. The problem with even the progged upcoming pattern change is that the cold air is still locked up north. We need more amplified ridging extending northward to break up the polar vortex.

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