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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

I agree with you, Jerry. All the models are now honed in on a strong blocking ridge over the American West into Western Canada/AK for early December, the first sign of the pattern change away from the fall +EPO that we've had the past few years. We don't need a monster AO/NAO block with the Pacific being so favorable for cold air moving into the Northeast. We had a monster +NAO for much of 93-94 with a PV parked over Baffin Island/Hudson Bay, and Central Park still saw over 50" snowfall.

Going to be tough to get a favorable pac if the MJO remains strong and goes through phases 3-5 as forecast. All correlate to a highly unfavorable Pac.. after this PNA spike (and marginal/neutral -EPO).. the MJO would indicate a return to -PNA +EPO around Dec 5.

Anyways my point isn't that New England, esp. CNE and NNE, will have little snow. That is much less predictable. My point is we're not going to see sustained cold given the high probability of a continuing +AO/NAO, and what in my opinion will be a transient +PNA and marginally negative/neutral EPO.

The EC ensembles bring the PNA back negative around Dec 1 and the EPO is only slightly negative D4-10. It is probably struggling to go solidly negative given the strong +AO and very low heights over the arctic including northern Alaska.

The GFS ensembles are even less impressive.. the EPO remains positive except for 2 days over the coming two weeks. This is clearly related to the persistent strong +AO chopping off the top of the ridge over AK.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Going to be tough to get a favorable pac if the MJO remains strong and goes through phases 3-5 as forecast. All correlate to a highly unfavorable Pac.. after this PNA spike (and marginal/neutral -EPO).. the MJO would indicate a return to -PNA +EPO around Dec 5.

Anyways my point isn't that New England, esp. CNE and NNE, will have little snow. That is much less predictable. My point is we're not going to see sustained cold given the high probability of a continuing +AO/NAO, and what in my opinion will be a transient +PNA and marginally negative/neutral EPO.

The EC ensembles bring the PNA back negative around Dec 1 and the EPO is only slightly negative D4-10. It is probably struggling to go solidly negative given the strong +AO and very low heights over the arctic including northern Alaska.

The GFS ensembles are even less impressive.. the EPO remains positive except for 2 days over the coming two weeks. This is clearly related to the persistent strong +AO chopping off the top of the ridge over AK.

This is how it can happen. NAO is strong + but EPO is neg with that ridge. Cahir's ridge is pushng the cold to our side and the positive NAO allows Canada nearby to be frigid. Although AO is positive, it works like a neg AO and gets the job done. Is it stable? Few patterns are this early but if NAO goes neg all bets are off.

18dad8de-6573-682b.jpg

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

This is how it can happen. NAO is strong + but EPO is neg with that ridge. Cahir's ridge is pushng the cold to our side and the positive NAO allows Canada nearby to be frigid. Although AO is positive, it works like a neg AO and gets the job done. Is it stable? Few patterns are this early but if NAO goes neg all bets are off.

18dad8de-6573-682b.jpg

Hate to say this but this reminds me off last year when you schooled Tubes.

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
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This is how it can happen. NAO is strong + but EPO is neg with that ridge. Cahir's ridge is pushng the cold to our side and the positive NAO allows Canada nearby to be frigid. Although AO is positive, it works like a neg AO and gets the job done. Is it stable? Few patterns are this early but if NAO goes neg all bets are off.

18dad8de-6573-682b.jpg

like I said.. not saying it won't snow..

that is a pretty marginal -EPO there also.. GFS ENS actually are positive. And given the MJO I would expect the EPO to return to positive after that, around Dec 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the EPO fails to materialize fully and is more like the less impressive GFS ENS version.

You can see how the massive +AO is preventing the ridging from really getting up into northern AK and delivering a real arctic dump.

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weathafella

weathafella

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like I said.. not saying it won't snow..

that is a pretty marginal -EPO there also.. GFS ENS actually are positive. And given the MJO I would expect the EPO to return to positive after that, around Dec 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the EPO fails to materialize fully and is more like the less impressive GFS ENS version.

You can see how the massive +AO is preventing the ridging from really getting up into northern AK and delivering a real arctic dump.

I think you're splitting hairs. I'll take that setup any day of the week.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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like I said.. not saying it won't snow..

that is a pretty marginal -EPO there also.. GFS ENS actually are positive. And given the MJO I would expect the EPO to return to positive after that, around Dec 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the EPO fails to materialize fully and is more like the less impressive GFS ENS version.

You can see how the massive +AO is preventing the ridging from really getting up into northern AK and delivering a real arctic dump.

Good discussion. I agree with all that you've said and likewise wouldn't be surprised to see the expected change to brutal, ball freezing weather 12/10+ not materialize.

I do have a lot of hope for next Saturday though.

60 in Boston at 5pm on 11/26/11

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weathafella

weathafella

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Posted

like I said.. not saying it won't snow..

that is a pretty marginal -EPO there also.. GFS ENS actually are positive. And given the MJO I would expect the EPO to return to positive after that, around Dec 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the EPO fails to materialize fully and is more like the less impressive GFS ENS version.

You can see how the massive +AO is preventing the ridging from really getting up into northern AK and delivering a real arctic dump.

GFS ensembles are different but they go to a similar place and I daresay the AO is neg by the end of the run.

18dad8de-6954-e7b2.jpg

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Good discussion. I agree with all that you've said and likewise wouldn't be surprised to see the expected change to brutal, ball freezing weather 12/10+ not materialize.

I do have a lot of hope for next Saturday though.

60 in Boston at 5pm on 11/26/11

Ball freezing is reserved for 12/25 and beyond. As you pointed out, it's hot today so it's a long drop that's needed and ebb and flow IMHO will take a full month from now.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Ball freezing is reserved for 12/25 and beyond. As you pointed out, it's hot today so it's a long drop that's needed and ebb and flow IMHO will take a full month from now.

You've got until 12/25/11 at 11:59:59 to produce 1" of snow by non-mechanical means at Logan.

I think it's going to happen next weekend - there's a ton of potential there.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

GFS ensembles are different but they go to a similar place and I daresay the AO is neg by the end of the run.

The GFS ENS and 12z Euro OP are also hinting at the Cahir's Connection pushing the cold to our side of the hemisphere, as you mention. Higher heights over Eastern Europe/Russia and a -EPO/+PNA should keep the eastern US reasonably cold even if it's not the true arctic stuff that we'd get with a ridge over the AK North Slope/Beaufort Sea. I also think a weak Nina favors a friendlier Aleutian ridge with less of the GoA/West Coast troughing that we've seen in some of the bigger Ninas like 98-99/99-00.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

It is awhistle, like I like it or AWT. Hey turn off RTE in your settings on your account here, uncheck the RTE button. That will fix your settings. Also on my IPAD I use the WWBB throwback skin, that works best.

Thanks Steve. Heading out with my daughter....bb after most of the 0Z is in.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Man..the vibe in here today has been great with the exception of 1 or 2. Everyone is pumped and seeing the cold and pattern change coming. It's been a dark and depressing tunnell the last month,,but the light is there ..we are almost to the promised land. You can just tell everyone is getting pumped to chuck

Usually a good sign that the writer doesn't really have a FIRM grasp on meterological synoptics is when the entire passage is comprised of nothing but index acronyms.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Good discussion. I agree with all that you've said and likewise wouldn't be surprised to see the expected change to brutal, ball freezing weather 12/10+ not materialize.

I do have a lot of hope for next Saturday though.

60 in Boston at 5pm on 11/26/11

Complete and utter mastery of passive aggression. :lol:

What a clinic.

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