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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

But for the most part the ridging stays up towards the GOA through the whole period right?

After d10 it begins to retrograde further west. At that point it will depend on amplitude. If it is more of a flat kind of ridge, ridging over the se may develop and perhaps a more mild pattern for the east, especially the MA. Of course that is way out there and subject to change. Being in Toronto, your odds may be a little better for more winter wx.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I still love how people get annoyed at the "vibe" if its not 100% pro-snow and cold. Pete, I love snow just as much as anyone but this is a weather board; we don't need to always be cheerleading about winter. Lets talk about what is coming up and what the pattern is in an objective way, not through snow goggles. Honestly the posts that like "who cares what the models say, big snow and winter coming soon" doesn't really add much to the meteorological discussion. I'd rather read about what the weather is actually doing than just blowing off any notion of a mild pattern and cheerleading for the big snow and cold that is always just around the corner. It ends up just sounding like a group therapy session where a bunch of guys are telling each other don't worry, things will be ok.

Good luck - not likely to happen. sorry. This has occurred to me several times over the years, and again recently I've relearned the lesson ... this forum has less to do with weather, and more a circuit for socializing. It's a commiseration nexus for an obsession with snow at that. Therein, the woe is me, and the 'who cares what the models say', et al, it's all for commiserating the fact that for some, an obsession over snow is an addiction that has no current fix and they use their right to post to vent that frustration. Those that share in that mentality sense it, join in, and viola! There's your "vibe" you were talking about. That vibe is not just a vibe, it is at times an immovable abject agenda; the only thing left for an addict with the shakes.

None of which requires actual weather to be blunt. It requires the advent or non-advent of snow. That is why I joked a month or so ago about some upstart creating a new forum out there upon the e-highway that has to do specifically and tediously with snow; whereupon while registering the new member encounters a page that states, "any Meteorological, intellectual discussion/debate will be strictly monitored for purposes of winter propagandizing".

This whole business of site usage falling off by 75% between circa April 15 and Sept 10 each year is really pretty telling. And ... I don't buy it that our only weather up here of interest is primarily snow, so it makes sense that is the focus; that's just not true and is a rationalization to defend what clearly is less weather interest, and more an obsession over snow. In the last year we've had record breaking heat waves, tornadoes, and a tropical storm. Sure some areas of the country have had it worse, others ...less exciting. But what? If the sensible weather is not mass hysteria and/or dystopian in character, that has to incur the same wrath by the village voice around here?! That's even worse than snow predilection - it's morally questionable. I love a good dystopia theme, too, but let's keep it in television and cinema. I am not disconnected from the consequences of 20" of snow prior to Halloween. There's something wrong with you if you wish on deathly scenarios like that - which that storm verified as, mind you.

You know, I remember saying to everyone that I would have been perfectly fine with that 2-3" of glop that fell two days prior. That would have been (and should have been for others) plenty of excitement in getting snow in the air before Halloween. Anything else was wanton of a disaster and I even wrote that I did not want to lose power for any reason, well before that event took place. My Meteorologist friend quipped to me how amusing it was that the snow had vanished 4 day later, leaving behind a pattern of destruction with no apparent cause - it was like a surgical power strike, to implant a specific result that crushed and shattered that wish NOT to lose power. Ha ha.

Yet there's all these clowns on here wringing crap like that on. I digress...

The constant yo-yoing up and down in sentiment is purely a function of whether that snow ID is getting a reach around that day or not. If not, posts attempt to cloak rage and despair (poorly I'd add...). If yes it's all brotherly love. Oh man. The funny thing is, I am not entirely beyond the pale here. sure, I have at times sensed less feeling of elation, too, when that good event disappears in the runs, or the teleconnectors split bringing in a bad "omen" for a pattern change toward brown earth during winter. I just have learned over the years to turn to other hobbies and interests during those times, and do so soon enough that the weather is not allowed to actually guide my mirth. It is probably my own psychology at work, but it really does more than just seem that as soon as I turn the cheek toward ancillary interest areas (life et al..), the darkness of the pattern becomes bright again.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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EPIC

We're in one of those ruts where things look worse as we get closer every day or two.

I agree with what Will said here about temps and what you and Phil said as well.

It's a step away from historic highs but it's still crappy.

Well I don't see it as getting worse and worse as we get closer. If anything, that cool spell next week has looked a little better. I think Will put it well, in that the ensembles have pretty much been correct with everything playing out. I was just joking with Kev, as Saturday never really appeared to be anything other than some light snow. I suppose the s/w could trend sharper as we get closer, but not really expecting much of anything right now.

What we may see are just alternating periods of wx, depending on how that ridge behaves in the GOA. When the ridge is sharp in the GOA, we probably get cool. As it pulls west again, it's possible we may get a bit warmer, but again...that is far out there.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Not sure if you are joking around there or not ...but that product is telling you that only a single member of the entire GFS suite was computed over night - i.e., N/S using that source.

The point is it has verified way above the upper envelope of the LR forecasts over the last 2 weeks.
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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Good luck - not likely to happen. sorry. This has occurred to me several times over the years, and again recently I've relearned the lesson ... this forum has less to do with weather, and more a circuit for socializing. It's a commiseration nexus for an obsession with snow at that. Therein, the woe is me, and the 'who cares what the models say', et al, it's all for commiserating the fact that for some, an obsession over snow is an addiction that has no current fix and they use their right to post to vent that frustration. Those that share in that mentality sense it, join in, and viola! There's your "vibe" you were talking about. That vibe is not just a vibe, it is at times an immovable abject agenda; the only thing left for an addict with the shakes.

None of which requires actual weather to be blunt. It requires the advent or non-advent of snow. That is why I joked a month or so ago about some upstart creating a new forum out there upon the e-highway that has to do specifically and tediously with snow; whereupon while registering the new member encounters a page that states, "any Meteorological, intellectual discussion/debate will be strictly monitored for purposes of winter propagandizing".

This whole business of site usage falling off by 75% between circa April 15 and Sept 10 each year is really pretty telling. And ... I don't buy it that our only weather up here of interest is primarily snow, so it makes sense that is the focus; that's just not true and is a rationalization to defend what clearly is less weather interest, and more an obsession over snow. In the last year we've had record breaking heat waves, tornadoes, and a tropical storm. Sure some areas of the country have had it worse, others ...less exciting. But what? If the sensible weather is not mass hysteria and/or dystopian in character, that has to incur the same wrath by the village voice around here?! That's even worse than snow predilection - it's morally questionable. I love a good dystopia theme, too, but let's keep it in television and cinema. I am not disconnected from the consequences of 20" of snow prior to Halloween. There's something wrong with you if you wish on deathly scenarios like that - which that storm verified as, mind you.

You know, I remember saying to everyone that I would have been perfectly fine with that 2-3" of glop that fell two days prior. That would have been (and should have been for others) plenty of excitement in getting snow in the air before Halloween. Anything else was wanton of a disaster and I even wrote that I did not want to lose power for any reason, well before that event took place. My Meteorologist friend quipped to me how amusing it was that the snow had vanished 4 day later, leaving behind a pattern of destruction with no apparent cause - it was like a surgical power strike, to implant a specific result that crushed and shattered that wish NOT to lose power. Ha ha.

Yet there's all these clowns on here wringing crap like that on. I digress...

The constant yo-yoing up and down in sentiment is purely a function of whether that snow ID is getting a reach around that day or not. If not, posts attempt to cloak rage and despair (poorly I'd add...). If yes it's all brotherly love. Oh man. The funny thing is, I am not entirely beyond the pale here. sure, I have at times sensed less feeling of elation, too, when that good event disappears in the runs, or the teleconnectors split bringing in a bad "omen" for a pattern change toward brown earth during winter. I just have learned over the years to turn to other hobbies and interests during those times, and do so soon enough that the weather is not allowed to actually guide my mirth. It is probably my own psychology at work, but it really does more than just seem that as soon as I turn the cheek toward ancillary interest areas (life et al..), the darkness of the pattern becomes bright again.

Lol

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Well I don't see it as getting worse and worse as we get closer. If anything, that cool spell next week has looked a little better. I think Will put it well, in that the ensembles have pretty much been correct with everything playing out. I was just joking with Kev, as Saturday never really appeared to be anything other than some light snow. I suppose the s/w could trend sharper as we get closer, but not really expecting much of anything right now.

What we may see are just alternating periods of wx, depending on how that ridge behaves in the GOA. When the ridge is sharp in the GOA, we probably get cool. As it pulls west again, it's possible we may get a bit warmer, but again...that is far out there.

I know. I think the epic warmth is gone in a day or three. After that it'll just be middlin' warmth alternating with equal periods of cold. We'll have a shot and if everything is timed right it'll snow somewhere.

On another note I think some of us are actually spies working for the Northeast Snow Sports Advocacy Association.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The point is it has verified way above the upper envelope of the LR forecasts over the last 2 weeks.

Yeah it's been that way across the board really. The PNA has been too positive ...not to the same degree in error, but too positive nonetheless. Cold signals are over-played recently.

That AO is weird from CPC - I have no idea what they are doing with that index but they have their main page product, and that same internal graphical presentation 180 deg out of phase with one another, which should be mathematically impossible! Pattern recognition argues for its predominating positive signal, however.

I mentioned this yesterday that the MJO and western half of the Pacific Basin are positively re-enforcing one another, and together are opposing a longer duration +PNA. That is quite plausibly an early sign for western N/A ridge retrograde into the Pac and a new era of negative west, positive east departures. 'When' is the big question... The current rise of the PNA and 6 or perhaps even 10 days of it - imo - is lag realization off the Phase late 7 through 1 MJO. The reason I think this way is because with the AO, EPO and NAO all being positive, that leaves the middle latitudes exposed to the wrath of the Pacific-origin of forcing. However, now the MJO has bullied right along and is quite strong in Phase 2.

I think it was Scott who was saying a couple weeks back that the Euro ensemble MJO tools were flagging a strongish Phase 2 through 5... I think without the EPO-AO-NAO assist you can take any given moderate MJO strength and lag it 6 to 10 days and that's your temperature curve for the time being. Just fill in the synoptic guess work accordingly.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Good luck - not likely to happen. sorry. This has occurred to me several times over the years, and again recently I've relearned the lesson ... this forum has less to do with weather, and more a circuit for socializing. It's a commiseration nexus for an obsession with snow at that. Therein, the woe is me, and the 'who cares what the models say', et al, it's all for commiserating the fact that for some, an obsession over snow is an addiction that has no current fix and they use their right to post to vent that frustration. Those that share in that mentality sense it, join in, and viola! There's your "vibe" you were talking about. That vibe is not just a vibe, it is at times an immovable abject agenda; the only thing left for an addict with the shakes.

None of which requires actual weather to be blunt. It requires the advent or non-advent of snow. That is why I joked a month or so ago about some upstart creating a new forum out there upon the e-highway that has to do specifically and tediously with snow; whereupon while registering the new member encounters a page that states, "any Meteorological, intellectual discussion/debate will be strictly monitored for purposes of winter propagandizing".

This whole business of site usage falling off by 75% between circa April 15 and Sept 10 each year is really pretty telling. And ... I don't buy it that our only weather up here of interest is primarily snow, so it makes sense that is the focus; that's just not true and is a rationalization to defend what clearly is less weather interest, and more an obsession over snow. In the last year we've had record breaking heat waves, tornadoes, and a tropical storm. Sure some areas of the country have had it worse, others ...less exciting. But what? If the sensible weather is not mass hysteria and/or dystopian in character, that has to incur the same wrath by the village voice around here?! That's even worse than snow predilection - it's morally questionable. I love a good dystopia theme, too, but let's keep it in television and cinema. I am not disconnected from the consequences of 20" of snow prior to Halloween. There's something wrong with you if you wish on deathly scenarios like that - which that storm verified as, mind you.

You know, I remember saying to everyone that I would have been perfectly fine with that 2-3" of glop that fell two days prior. That would have been (and should have been for others) plenty of excitement in getting snow in the air before Halloween. Anything else was wanton of a disaster and I even wrote that I did not want to lose power for any reason, well before that event took place. My Meteorologist friend quipped to me how amusing it was that the snow had vanished 4 day later, leaving behind a pattern of destruction with no apparent cause - it was like a surgical power strike, to implant a specific result that crushed and shattered that wish NOT to lose power. Ha ha.

Yet there's all these clowns on here wringing crap like that on. I digress...

The constant yo-yoing up and down in sentiment is purely a function of whether that snow ID is getting a reach around that day or not. If not, posts attempt to cloak rage and despair (poorly I'd add...). If yes it's all brotherly love. Oh man. The funny thing is, I am not entirely beyond the pale here. sure, I have at times sensed less feeling of elation, too, when that good event disappears in the runs, or the teleconnectors split bringing in a bad "omen" for a pattern change toward brown earth during winter. I just have learned over the years to turn to other hobbies and interests during those times, and do so soon enough that the weather is not allowed to actually guide my mirth. It is probably my own psychology at work, but it really does more than just seem that as soon as I turn the cheek toward ancillary interest areas (life et al..), the darkness of the pattern becomes bright again.

There's always sci.met.geo.boringazzmettalk.com

WTF is this

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