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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Dude, we're getting thumped big time this year. Thankfully, I have a plethera of posts from the doubters that I'll be able to toss back with the pin pulled.lol

I will enjoy the explanation as to why you were right when it happens. And why you were wrong if it doesn't (although I prefer the former)

Glad to see a return to seasonable by the mid/end of the week at least...1 threat coming. It's all good

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The pattern is not going to be brutal cold...so I'm not sure where people are coming up with the idea of that. But some below avg temps are in store and more seasonable wx and perhaps some threats could come down the pipeline.

Look at Dec 1975 on how to get a below avg month with good snow with a +EPO/+AO/+NAO

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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The pattern is not going to be brutal cold...so I'm not sure where people are coming up with the idea of that. But some below avg temps are in store and more seasonable wx and perhaps some threats could come down the pipeline.

Look at Dec 1975 on how to get a below avg month with good snow with a +EPO/+AO/+NAO

Doesn't seem like anyone is thinking brutal cold. I didn't see any posts about that

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Seasonable is all I ask. Highs in the low 40s/upper 30s...lows in the 20s at night

That seems like it is coming in a few days.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Heh, I think a few folks live and die to closely by whatever the Euro ensembles are painting...

We are arriving to this idea using the GFS ensembles just fine, btw.

Also, I'm not convinced of a "pattern change" in the sense that whatever new paradigm doesn't turn back. The West Pacific Basin and N are trending back toward prior to the deep CAA event that came off NE Asia last week, which means any +PNA would likely have a lease to it. Believe me, I don't want to come off as a hypocrite when I was one of the guys that cheer-leaded this western ridge showing up (opening post), but now ... I'm just looking beyond and not seeing a very cooperative Pac.

Firstly, I caution those that believe there is a -EPO ridge when looking at the Euro and GFS mean, D8-10. That's a neutral-positive EPO, while a positive PNA ridge rolls out underneath. If it were not for the PNA ridge, the EPO would in fact be positive to a more significant SD. Much of the EPO's domain is not in that area of positive anomaly nearing the B.C. Coast of NW Canada. It would be like calling the NAO negative because there is a ridge axis between NS and the southern tip of Greenland - ehhhh, not really. You want that ridge node between Barrow Alaske and the Siberian Pen ...Bering Sea and thereabouts.

The MJO is now moderately strong and heading into Phase 2 ...while strengthening as of last night. Phase 2-5 is anti-correlated to western N/A ridging. With the WPO positive the MJO and the polarward mediam are thus in constructive wave interference; any Phase 2-3 tropical forcing is thus likely to augment the Pac away from the +PNA, which may be why the ESRL channel at CDC rather abruptly began indicating a -PNA returning. Even the CPC is now sagging the D10-15 values.

I just want folks to get realistic with expectations regarding these indices.

How that will all affect the dailies, I am not really sure frankly. I don't believe it has to mean an all out warm surging obliteration to December. For one, as I have tried to elucidate ...there is some kind of cold loading event going on N. The sea-ice is now exceeded last year's numbers to date, and last year was considered among the fastest rates of recovery in memory. The snow cover is also astounding, measuring more so to date then in decades, exceeding the Novembers of the 1970's minor global temperature recession at that. I don't think that abstraction is being given the attention it needs, and believe that ANY reason for transport well enough shy of a full on pattern alteration is going to cause the 40th parallel to cool down more so than expected relative to what any teleconnector connotes at the time.

Still no negative U-vector anomalies detected (though don't know what the modeling currently shows...) in the polar field, so a tanking AO would have to come from other means if so.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Heh, I think a few folks live and die to closely by whatever the Euro ensembles are painting...

We are arriving to this idea using the GFS ensembles just fine, btw.

Also, I'm not convinced of a "pattern change" in the sense that whatever new paradigm doesn't turn back. The West Pacific Basin and N are trending back toward prior to the deep CAA event that came off NE Asia last week, which means any +PNA would likely have a lease to it. Believe me, I don't want to come off as a hypocrite when I was one of the guys that cheer-leaded this western ridge showing up (opening post), but now ... I'm just looking beyond and not seeing a very cooperative Pac.

Firstly, I caution those that believe there is a -EPO ridge when looking at the Euro and GFS mean, D8-10. That's a neutral-positive EPO, while a positive PNA ridge rolls out underneath. If it were not for the PNA ridge, the EPO would in fact be positive to a more significant SD. Much of the EPO's domain is not in that area of positive anomaly nearing the B.C. Coast of NW Canada. It would be like calling the NAO negative because there is a ridge axis between NS and the southern tip of Greenland - ehhhh, not really. You want that ridge node between Barrow Alaske and the Siberian Pen ...Bering Sea and thereabouts.

The MJO is now moderately strong and heading into Phase 2 ...while strengthening as of last night. Phase 2-5 is anti-correlated to western N/A ridging. With the WPO positive the MJO and the polarward mediam are thus in constructive wave interference; any Phase 2-3 tropical forcing is thus likely to augment the Pac away from the +PNA, which may be why the ESRL channel at CDC rather abruptly began indicating a -PNA returning. Even the CPC is now sagging the D10-15 values.

I just want folks to get realistic with expectations regarding these indices.

How that will all affect the dailies, I am not really sure frankly. I don't believe it has to mean an all out warm surging obliteration to December. For one, as I have tried to elucidate ...there is some kind of cold loading event going on N. The sea-ice is now exceeded last year's numbers to date, and last year was considered among the fastest rates of recovery in memory. The snow cover is also astounding, measuring more so to date then in decades, exceeding the Novembers of the 1970's minor global temperature recession at that. I don't think that abstraction is being given the attention it needs, and believe that ANY reason for transport well enough shy of a full on pattern alteration is going to cause the 40th parallel to cool down more so than expected relative to what any teleconnector connotes at the time.

Still no negative U-vector anomalies detected (though don't know what the modeling currently shows...) in the polar field, so a tanking AO would have to come from other means if so.

So that means big snow. Cool.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Final Winter forecast out on my blog.

http://weatherintoro...orecast_26.html

Comments and questions will be nice. :)

Looks fairly similar to what I came up with overall. I'm thinking it'll be a bit of a gradient winter with somewhat above average snowfall in NNE, near average in SNE and northern Mid-Atlantic, somewhat below average south of 40° N. The SE ridge may lead to somewhat milder weather further south as well. This will, of course, change if the NAO/AO average out more deeply negative than what I'm thinking. Forecast is in the blog link in my sig.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Final Winter forecast out on my blog.

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/11/final-winter-2012-forecast_26.html

Comments and questions will be nice. :)

Looks fairly similar to what I came up with overall. I'm thinking it'll be a bit of a gradient winter with somewhat above average snowfall in NNE, near average in SNE and northern Mid-Atlantic, somewhat below average south of 40° N. The SE ridge may lead to somewhat milder weather further south as well. This will, of course, change if the NAO/AO average out more deeply negative than what I'm thinking. Forecast is in the blog link in my sig.

Both well put together excellent presentations and both very likely outcomes although I think blocking comes on stronger than you guys predict. Nice!

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