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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Euro says if you're walking in Memphis, you may be walking with flakes flying onto Beale.

Scott just took a look at the main thread and here's the better way of saying what I was trying to:

"The bad news is that there are signs on the GEFS ensembles that the pna ridge will be replaced by an rpna, the typical nina ridge position. During nina, there often are cold shots as amplification takes place and the ridge shifts eastward into AK and the west but the cold in the east is usually transitory as the tropical forcing associated with la nina tends to shift the ridge back west. "

"Note how the orange shades that were over the west coast have shifted back west. There is little skill in model forecasts so far in advance but such a shift would fit with nina climo. Also, the 384 hour still shows blues molsty blue shades at the higher latitudes. To me that's believable given the very cold stratosphere. We need upwelling events or Ozone to weaken that stratospheric polar vortex. "

That's from USETOBE and I think he's nailing it as always. Personally I think what some see as hope on the long range GEFS to me will be more heartbreak as even if there is an evolution towards more storminess it would lead to a western track for us.

http://www.americanw...80#entry1143660

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Scott just took a look at the main thread and here's the better way of saying what I was trying to:

"The bad news is that there are signs on the GEFS ensembles that the pna ridge will be replaced by an rpna, the typical nina ridge position. During nina, there often are cold shots as amplification takes place and the ridge shifts eastward into AK and the west but the cold in the east is usually transitory as the tropical forcing associated with la nina <b><u>tends to shift the ridge back west.</u></b> "

"Note how the orange shades that were over the west coast have shifted back west. There is little skill in model forecasts so far in advance but such a shift would fit with nina climo. Also, the 384 hour still shows blues molsty blue shades at the higher latitudes. To me that's believable given the very cold stratosphere. We need upwelling events or Ozone to weaken that stratospheric polar vortex. "

That's from USETOBE and I think he's nailing it as always. Personally I think what some see as hope on the long range GEFS to me will be more heartbreak as even if there is an evolution towards more storminess it would lead to a western track for us.

<a href=' class='bbc_url' title=''>http://www.americanw...80#entry1143660</a>

I think Wes's focus here is for his area around dc. Ninas typically yield decent winters 40N. 1993-94 was a cold but low snow winter for that area. Plenty of ice. We were buried.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I think Wes's focus here is for his area around dc. Ninas typically yield decent winters 40N. 1993-94 was a cold but low snow winter for that area. Plenty of ice. We were buried.

True but I don't think this is really working out like a typical Nina at this point. Particularly what he's saying about the strato...need some changes to evolve there soon.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

just wanted to mention that with respect to the cutoff low in the middle of the week

i dont know about 500 heights verification and all that stuff, but in terms of speed and postioning and 'general' evolution of the cutoff

the GEM absolutely destroyed both the GFS and euro with how it handled the system.

strange days.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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True but I don't think this is really working out like a typical Nina at this point. Particularly what he's saying about the strato...need some changes to evolve there soon.

We really need something to change the +AO/+NAO that we've been lodged it since late August. Until that time, I don't think we will see any sustained wintry pattern. Maybe we can sneak something in when the PNA pops positive but without any blocking in place, the track will be critical. It's ugly for a winter pattern right now. Hopefully we can start to see some permanent positive changes as we head into December.

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weathafella

weathafella

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True but I don't think this is really working out like a typical Nina at this point. Particularly what he's saying about the strato...need some changes to evolve there soon.

Yes...Scott has also alluded to that but also mentioned displacement to a more favorable position.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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We really need something to change the +AO/+NAO that we've been lodged it since late August. Until that time, I don't think we will see any sustained wintry pattern. Maybe we can sneak something in when the PNA pops positive but without any blocking in place, the track will be critical. It's ugly for a winter pattern right now. Hopefully we can start to see some permanent positive changes as we head into December.

The next 4 days are ugly..after that it's not ugly..at all. It's at worst normal with several below normal days late next week/end

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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We really need something to change the +AO/+NAO that we've been lodged it since late August. Until that time, I don't think we will see any sustained wintry pattern. Maybe we can sneak something in when the PNA pops positive but without any blocking in place, the track will be critical. It's ugly for a winter pattern right now. Hopefully we can start to see some permanent positive changes as we head into December.

Yep. Meanwhile I'm enjoying this weather. Insane temps for this time of year with no wind. One of the nicest weather days of the entire year today IMO.

Yes...Scott has also alluded to that but also mentioned displacement to a more favorable position.

We'll have to work with what we get. Euro to me is kind of a bummer through d6

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Scott just took a look at the main thread and here's the better way of saying what I was trying to:

"The bad news is that there are signs on the GEFS ensembles that the pna ridge will be replaced by an rpna, the typical nina ridge position. During nina, there often are cold shots as amplification takes place and the ridge shifts eastward into AK and the west but the cold in the east is usually transitory as the tropical forcing associated with la nina tends to shift the ridge back west. "

"Note how the orange shades that were over the west coast have shifted back west. There is little skill in model forecasts so far in advance but such a shift would fit with nina climo. Also, the 384 hour still shows blues molsty blue shades at the higher latitudes. To me that's believable given the very cold stratosphere. We need upwelling events or Ozone to weaken that stratospheric polar vortex. "

That's from USETOBE and I think he's nailing it as always. Personally I think what some see as hope on the long range GEFS to me will be more heartbreak as even if there is an evolution towards more storminess it would lead to a western track for us.

http://www.americanw...80#entry1143660

I think Wes is a little more concerned for the MA. Again like in January of last year, Dec 2007 and 2008 we don't need a -NAO to do well. Does it help, sure, but when you have a 500mb ridge poking into AK or NW Canada, it will help dump the cold into eastern Canada and the US. There are also signs that the vortex causing the +NAO will be pushed slightly south. As Will and Sam mentioned, this can help form some confluence across se Canada and that brings those lovely 1040 highs north of Maine. A case where a southwesterly +NAO can help us out.

However, the MA is still cooked unless we have a mega amplitude ridge in AK.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Posted

Yep. Meanwhile I'm enjoying this weather. Insane temps for this time of year with no wind. One of the nicest weather days of the entire year today IMO.

We'll have to work with what we get. Euro to me is kind of a bummer through d6

Euro has it snowing In both of our yards next Saturday morning.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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Posted

I think Wes is a little more concerned for the MA. Again like in January of last year, Dec 2007 and 2008 we don't need a -NAO to do well. Does it help, sure, but when you have a 500mb ridge poking into AK or NW Canada, it will help dump the cold into eastern Canada and the US. There are also signs that the vortex causing the +NAO will be pushed slightly south. As Will and Sam mentioned, this can help form some confluence across se Canada and that brings those lovely 1040 highs north of Maine. A case where a southwesterly +NAO can help us out.

However, the MA is still cooked unless we have a mega amplitude ridge in AK.

a snowless winter in the MA would not be a surprise. they are due.

hope for their sakes they get some though.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

I think Wes is a little more concerned for the MA. Again like in January of last year, Dec 2007 and 2008 we don't need a -NAO to do well. Does it help, sure, but when you have a 500mb ridge poking into AK or NW Canada, it will help dump the cold into eastern Canada and the US. There are also signs that the vortex causing the +NAO will be pushed slightly south. As Will and Sam mentioned, this can help form some confluence across se Canada and that brings those lovely 1040 highs north of Maine. A case where a southwesterly +NAO can help us out.

However, the MA is still cooked unless we have a mega amplitude ridge in AK.

Yeah, Wes definitely tends to focus his responses to that region but they do hold some weight for us in the southern portion of SNE. I agree with the general thoughts on the NAO too. Obviously you can't just say +NAO and we're screwed. I think this last storm was case in point. We had a nice H in SE Canada with a rising NAO and it gave a nice snowstorm for many. Given that it's ear;y on the season, climate will favor the interior for these types of systems but as we hit late December into February, if the pattern is the same, areas along the CP can cash in too.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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By no means is it a classic winter pattern, but it shows signs of slowly improving after 7 days and it offers chances.

12/3 to 12/6-8 have been on the table now for a week in terms of colder stormy solutions. I'm not sold after that period that we see much sustained beyond 12/12ish.

But we shall see.

Therm just hit 67 here on two different thermometers, much more and we will develop a sea breeze..

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yep. Meanwhile I'm enjoying this weather. Insane temps for this time of year with no wind. One of the nicest weather days of the entire year today IMO.

We'll have to work with what we get. Euro to me is kind of a bummer through d6

Lol - when is anything NOT a bummer, downer, or least excuse imaginable reason to be less than optimistically in favor of the majority desire with you.

You know, I was think this morning that we seem to have changed the climate of events over the last 10 years. I am not sure if this is because of GW or whatever the cause, but normalcy is defined by extremes of positive and negative departures, more than normalcy its self. We don't have strings of "normal" weather anymore - or fewer of them then I remember as a child. If it is not 10F with blizzard watch, it's 67F - extremes are the norm! Last year, in order to get any winter at all we had to break a kins of 45-day snowfall records.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

That's quite the cold dump coming into the midsection today in the long range.

It's got a full latitude trough with a clipper coming into nw MN at d10. Yes it is a d10 op prog, but I think all models agree that this is the first wave of colder air. It might be something where it relaxes after 2 or 3 days, low pressure moves in, followed by another cold wave.

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