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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Seems to be fitting nicely with what's been outlined.

Hugely above normal thru end of november followed by a period of more seasonable december temps/weather sometime in the first 5 to 7 days of the month.

Yeah, there's no guarantees it hangs around. I love the look of the 12z Euro today. Cold dump into the conus.

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

Euro continues the trend and now we have solid guiance in all corners for an EPO shift. First step...the EPO, 2nd step, weenies aglow, 3rd step, we get AO, 4th step, we hohoho, 5th step, PNA, 6th step, cold's here to stay, 6th step we get some snow, naked angels look out below, 7th step we sing with glee......it looks like '93.....step by step....

lol thats great

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

12z GFS and Euro ensembles pretty similar in flipping the EPO/PNA for a period of time next Wednesday-Sunday at least. That certainly teleconnects to seasonably chilly weather by next weekend... maybe even 1-2 days of below normal weather if things break right.

Lack of upstream blocking probably keeps and BN weather transient.

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

Euro seems to have a bit of a warm bias lately in the east.

This seems to be the case..I've been doing a little study where I save the 10 day OP 850 map and then compare it to the actual verification 10 days later. Almost every time our 850's have been considerably colder in reality but this only applies to the East, the Plains appear to have the opposite bias.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

hpc final disco

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD148 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2011 VALID 12Z MON NOV 28 2011 - 12Z FRI DEC 02 2011 THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A TROUGHBROADENING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DOWNWIND OF AN EASTERN PACIFICRIDGE. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. DETAIL-WISE...THERE AREMAJOR ISSUES OUT EAST WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A CLOSED CYCLONE ISEXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE SHORTRANGE PERIOD AND HOW DEEP IT WILL GET. NCEP GUIDANCE REMAINSALONE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHERLY AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONSTHROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WHILE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE SETTLESUPON A MORE SOUTHERN/SLOWER SOLUTION. OVERALL...INTERNATIONALGUIDANCE SEEMED MORE BELIEVABLE WITH THEIR MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONSCONSIDERING THE AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED UPSTREAM DURING THE SHORTRANGE PERIOD. OF THESE THE 00Z CANADIAN FIT WAS NOT AS SLOW ASTHE OTEHRS AND SEEMED TO FIT TELECONNECTIONS BEST AS THE APEX OFTHE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC IMPLIES A CLOSED LOWIN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ERN TN. HOWEVER...THIS 00Z CANADIAN DIDLOOK TOO DEEP WITH 500 MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES 5-6 SIGMAS BELOWCLIMATOLOGY...WHICH IS IMPROBABLE GIVEN HIGH SOLUTION UNCERTAINTY. THAT WAS A REASON WHY A COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00ZCANADIAN WAS USED IN OUR PRELIM GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE00Z ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE FORCED EVEN ADDITIONALSLOWING...BUT LOOMING UPSTREAM KICKER ENERGY APPROACH SEEMED TOWORK AGAINST BEING QUITE THAT SLOW. SINCE THEN THE 12 UTC GFS AND RECENT GEFS MEANS HAVE TRENDEDSWD/SLOWER...BUT NOT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET ANDNOW 12Z CANADIAN. ACCORDINGLY AND CONSIDERING LATEST AMPLIFIEDWATER VAPOR LOOP LOOK AND KEEPING AN EYE ON HPCCONTINUITY...ADJUSTED THE FINAL HPC PROGS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OURPRELIMS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALOFT. DEPENDING ON ITS UNCERTAIN DEPTH AND TRACK...COMMA HEAD SNOWSCOULD STILL SPREAD FROM THE MID-SOUTH NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHVALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES AND UP THE APPALACHIANS EARLY-MID NEXT WEEKON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF WARMER SECTOR ERN SEABOARD HEAVYRAINS. OUT WEST...THERE ARE ISSUES WITH WHERE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/APOSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK...WITH THE 00Z GEFSMEAN THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE 00Z ECMWF THE FARTHEST WEST TAKINGIT OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA AS AN OUTSIDE SLIDER. THE 00Z CANADIANSPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN DROPPING THISSYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST...SO USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00ZCANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OUT WEST. THIS ALSO HELPED TEMPERTHE STRENGTH OF ITS SURFACE HIGH AND A SYSTEM MOVING MOVING AROUNDITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THIS BLENDED SOLUTION.ROTH/SCHICHTEL

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I never understood all of the winter cancel crap.....if we grab an event between now and Dec 15, great, but its not crucial.

Yeah for the last 2-3 weeks I've been posting that if we're going to have an awful looking pattern let it be in November and early December. Much better this time of year.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

This seems to be the case..I've been doing a little study where I save the 10 day OP 850 map and then compare it to the actual verification 10 days later. Almost every time our 850's have been considerably colder in reality but this only applies to the East, the Plains appear to have the opposite bias.

While the best, the EC has a warmer bias more than the other models in the mid-latitudes. GFS does not have a cold bias in the extended range anymore...it has a slight warm bias...at least for the 20N-80N sector of the globe.

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