HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well, its about that time Finally...now what happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 maybe this will be the kind of year where it just snows whenever possible. With the pattern of high and regular precip events maybe we will keep gettin lucky. 1993 and 2003, both were like that early on, 1993 had the interior Halloween event, the 12/11 event, and the 12/27 one...in 2003 both the 12/5 and 12/14 events occurred in so-so and hostile patterns respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Vey is mir.....oy! nisht gedeyget! kalt vinter glayhk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Getting there Scott. Every day it's been JUST A WEE BIT better. Today the end result is a noticeable change. 12/10 and beyond could be very nice. Its akin to having a 110* day and stating that every day since has gotten just a wee bit cooler....lol I hear ya, though....good winter en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Alrighty, well weeklies are in. Mid December change per weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Alrighty, well weeklies are in. Mid December change per weeklies. Right on cue..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Alrighty, well weeklies are in. Mid December change per weeklies. Amout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Right on cue..... Honestly, that's when I would set your clocks to. If it's earlier or we get a couple of snow events prior...consider it a bonus. Week 3 and 4 aren't the most stable, but it's good to see that wretched vortex gone on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Amout? Sensible impacts should be markedly discenrible by xmas, thank Christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Scott--what's the low down on the black hole vortex over AK on the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Honestly, that's when I would set your clocks to. If it's earlier or we get a couple of snow events prior...consider it a bonus. Week 3 and 4 aren't the most stable, but it's good to see that wretched vortex gone on the weeklies. Like I said the other day about being weary of long range guidance, except when they fit into the general scheme of things.....that has been a period targeted by many for some time and likely coincides with progression of the MJO. I buy it. Just like I bought the extended doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Scott--what's the low down on the black hole vortex over AK on the weeklies? By week 3 and especially week 4, it's replaced with some ridging. By week 4, we have cold anomalies across western Canada, eastward through Hudson Bay. We also have a squashed east-west ridge it appears across the southern tier of the CONUS. Also weak ridging into Iceland. It's a decent looking -EPO into Aleutian. It's not like last year, but I would think it would be enough to deliver the goods...IF it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 18z GFS came in suppressed just S of N. Eng. Not a bad look at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Amout? AMOSEFKT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Mid December. Squirrels have another 3 weeks to burst their bellies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yea, awaiting my dad's testes to generate me was a blinding experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Just got a look at weeklies, looks like we really torch first week of December, and return to near climo by week 4, but as people dismissed them beyond week 2 when it did not show what they wanted, I am positive those same people will take todays maps with the same grain of salt. Having said that, looks like a pattern change in the making towards mid month into the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Week 4 on the weeklies has a hell of a gradient. Canada is really cold (which is finally good) But the southern 3/4th of the country still looks quite mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Week 4 on the weeklies has a hell of a gradient. Canada is really cold (which is finally good) But the southern 3/4th of the country still looks quite mild. Fook em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 18z GFS came in suppressed just S of N. Eng. Not a bad look at this time frame. Looks like there is a chance for a polar stream and intermediate stream phase in there, but the 12z Euro also lost that stream interaction. 00z had more though... This 18z GFS runs shows the two S/W shearing passed oneanother. Much of that will come down to the amount of western N/A ridging... If heights pop a bit more that polarward S/W will dig more and subsume the intermediate tream along the MA - you'd have an interesting result, albeit progressive. Predicated on the assumption that the CPC/CDC PNA rise is valid for D7, therein would be a possibility that the western heights are not responding just yet - it "could" be a red flag that hte 00z Euro showed more stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 This pattern sucks so bad that the 18z GFS doesn't even show a coastal low in any of its panels.... The 18z run tonight is probably the most atrocious run I have ever seen from the GFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Week 4 on the weeklies has a hell of a gradient. Canada is really cold (which is finally good) But the southern 3/4th of the country still looks quite mild. Will, I think the winter pattern might be showing its head here, obviously a nina moderate most likely, fairly robust se ridge, NS dominated. Gradient cold, that combo could really deliver the goods across new england especially away from the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 For those of you down about the mild weather and the mild outlook, I quote to you from Sidney perley's Historic Storms of New England, "The winter of 1801-02 was very mild, the month of January being so warm that on the twenty-fourth, the ice on the Merrimack river began to move down the stream, and on the twenty-eight, at Salem, Massachusetts, the thermometer indicated sixty degrees above zero. It was the warmest January that the people remembered. There had been but little snow, and they congratulated themselves upon the pleasant winter and the prospect of an early spring. On Sunday, the twenty-first of February, the aspect of the weather changed. The first part of the day was remarkably pleasant, but the wind soon changed to the northeast and a fierce storm came on. The storm continued for nearly a week, covering the earth with snow and sleet to the depth of several feet. Intense cold prevailed, which produced much suffering among all classes, and caused the sleet to freeze upon the snow. forming a crust so hard and thick that the people, not distinguishing the location of the roads, drove in their sleighs across lots over fences and walls." (page 134) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Week 4 on the weeklies has a hell of a gradient. Canada is really cold (which is finally good) But the southern 3/4th of the country still looks quite mild. They now release the weeklies twice a week?..seems like today's look much better than Monday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 They now release the weeklies twice a week?..seems like today's look much better than Monday's But you would pay them no attention correct? Afterall, that is what you were saying:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 They now release the weeklies twice a week?..seems like today's look much better than Monday's Yes, but the Thursday edition rolls it out another week. Monday's version only went out to Dec 12....today's has week 4 from Dec 13-19, which is where we see the first signs of a better pattern. The Dec 5-12th week is still ugly like Monday was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 We are 0.5C to 1C above normal at 850 on week 4. That's ok, as 850 climo starts getting chilly. We can afford to have those temps if we get systems coming from the OV. It seems like SWFE city possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 We are 0.5C to 1C above normal at 850 on week 4. That's ok, as 850 climo starts getting chilly. We can afford to have those temps if we get systems coming from the OV. It seems like SWFE city possible. Yeah climo has us about -3C to -4C at 850mb by mid December. As long as we don't torch, we can get some decent events in that type of gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Fook em. Easy there big guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Easy there big guy... Jeez everybody is a mod now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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