Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The monster AK vortex well make any -NAO pretty useless I think...as Canada gets flooded with mild air. We might be able to be more seasonal in temps if we get a NAO block and a little bit of ridging over the west coast, but the source region being torched makes me fairly confident we won't be seeing a lot of negative departures in early December. Of course, maybe the AK vortex gets shuffled out faster than guidance currently has it...if that is the case, then we would see a very different pattern. PNA rise is the concern there for me... The ao/nao stuff is an after thought. i don't think there's an issue with cold in canada should the wind trajectory back. snow pack abounds and nights are long. it'll happen quick if the PNA rises like CPC has it. of course that is predicated on the assumption that the tightly clustered rise from -1.5 to .+5 is correct at both CPC/CDC ... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 FYI, the UKMET has a open but potent wave with what looks like a Miller B ... either way, pretty significant NJ model low implicated there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 FYI, the UKMET has a open but potent wave with what looks like a Miller B ... either way, pretty significant NJ model low implicated there. For that same Wednesday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 PNA rise is the concern there for me... The ao/nao stuff is an after thought. i don't think there's an issue with cold in canada should the wind trajectory back. snow pack abounds and nights are long. it'll happen quick if the PNA rises like CPC has it. of course that is predicated on the assumption that the tightly clustered rise from -1.5 to .+5 is correct at both CPC/CDC ... we'll see I sure hope it changes earlier, but a +PNA (imo) combined with a vortex in AK is still sort of arguing for a pattern that isn't very wintry. Naturally even temps above normal in Canada is still cold, but the remnant airmass seems mild. What I would want to see (and hr 288 of the euro ens hints at it) is for the AK trough to completely move away or retrograde into ne Asia, and those low height anomalies are now replaced with ridging and higher height anomalies. That will tip the bucket if you will, and pour colder air from 70N or so, right into Canada. That's how we can flush out the garbage. I can't say for certain if it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I hope the pattern changes by Dec 1, but I don't see any reason for it to in any significant manner. If we had the MJO ripping around to phase 6/7 and they were still trying to show an AK vortex, I'd be more skeptical...but it seems there is pretty solid support for low heights to remain over AK through at least the first week of Dec. Doesn't mean we can't get a snow event anyway as the Euro showed us today. The MJO seems weak and possibly a non factor. Canada does not seem that mild for long either. GEFS ENS show it pretty cold pretty quickly. AO NAO PNA state changes seem to be gaining more ENS members. Something to watch this week for sure otherwise we are in the same transient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah the cold air seeping in is almost like a backdoor front. Northeast is the coldest. That would also tend to favor a bit of a CAD setup which means a warmer solution could mean some icing in the interior. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I sure hope it changes earlier, but a +PNA (imo) combined with a vortex in AK is still sort of arguing for a pattern that isn't very wintry. Naturally even temps above normal in Canada is still cold, but the remnant airmass seems mild. What I would want to see (and hr 288 of the euro ens hints at it) is for the AK trough to completely move away or retrograde into ne Asia, and those low height anomalies are now replaced with ridging and higher height anomalies. That will tip the bucket if you will, and pour colder air from 70N or so, right into Canada. That's how we can flush out the garbage. I can't say for certain if it will happen. I love how folks try to manufacture a way to get wintry with that bad larry camped out over AK.........just won't happen, regardless of how many ways in which you try to conceal that big pig's hideous nature with makeup. Best case is to hail mary a sneaker of an event, but the overall regime will not turn wintry until that vortex goes.....the two scenarios are mutally exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Defintely better looking late in the euro ensembles fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I love how folks try to manufacture a way to get wintry with that bad larry camped out over AK.........just won't happen, regardless of how many ways in which you try to conceal that big pig's hideous nature with makeup. Best case is to hail mary a sneaker of an event, but the overall regime will not turn wintry until that vortex goes.....the two scenarios are mutally exclusive. Guess you missed Dec 1970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 At least there is a snowflake depicted on my Davis lol 42.9\35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Guess you missed Dec 1970 Yea, awaiting my dad's testes to generate me was a blinding experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Sort of split flow like on the EC ensembles, but that's the best its looked so far. There are still lower heights over AK, but at least the orientation tries to pump up temporary ridging. I would not say it's a pattern flip, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 At least there is a snowflake depicted on my Davis lol 42.9\35 snowing here now, mixed with mangled but snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Guys, keep the current obs and stuff in the other obs/banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Sort of split flow like on the EC ensembles, but that's the best its looked so far. There are still lower heights over AK, but at least the orientation tries to pump up temporary ridging. I would not say it's a pattern flip, however. Getting there Scott. Every day it's been JUST A WEE BIT better. Today the end result is a noticeable change. 12/10 and beyond could be very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Getting there Scott. Every day it's been JUST A WEE BIT better. Today the end result is a noticeable change. 12/10 and beyond could be very nice. CPC -14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 25 - DEC 01, 2011 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN AS THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST RETROGRADES AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There ya go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 CPC -14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 25 - DEC 01, 2011 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN AS THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST RETROGRADES AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES yeah, now we're getting somewhere I can see the arguments over whether it is or isn't a pattern change in the pipeline already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Man much much better vibe in here today. pattern change looks like it is coming earlier than many thought..hope it's not a false start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Defintely better looking late in the euro ensembles fwiw. Good, Hopefully its the start of a positive trend that will continue going forward.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There ya go lots of Low pressure in Canada and High Pressure in the southern tier of the US on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Good, Hopefully its the start of a positive trend that will continue going forward.... That death star tries to nudge east into AK again at the end of the run, but it does pump up ridging over western Canada. I just want that trough out of there...I don't want to see it there. Until that is gone..what I see is transient cold or wintry shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I love how folks try to manufacture a way to get wintry with that bad larry camped out over AK.........just won't happen, regardless of how many ways in which you try to conceal that big pig's hideous nature with makeup. Best case is to hail mary a sneaker of an event, but the overall regime will not turn wintry until that vortex goes.....the two scenarios are mutally exclusive. Hope your not referring to me champ... I know exactly what I am seeing and it is Meteorologically clad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 lots of Low pressure in Canada and High Pressure in the southern tier of the US on that map Just give me that intermountain High situated over Idaho and I will take my chances ny day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Weeklies today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 That death star tries to nudge east into AK again at the end of the run, but it does pump up ridging over western Canada. I just want that trough out of there...I don't want to see it there. Until that is gone..what I see is transient cold or wintry shots. Until its gone we are stuck with pacific air and not air from the pole, We need to replace it with some higher heights over the Aleutians to change the flow into Canada and the into the US and New England, Did the ensembles retrograde that low and trough west for a time before it trys to return east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Hope your not referring to me champ... I know exactly what I am seeing and it is Meteorologically clad Yea his post smacked of an offhand slap at differing opinions. It wil be slow and brutal in here until the end is clearly in sight but I am seeing the same things you are. Again we have scored mightly in the past with a +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Until its gone we are stuck with pacific air and not air from the pole, We need to replace it with some higher heights over the Aleutians to change the flow into Canada and the into the US and New England, Did the ensembles retrograde that low and trough west for a time before it trys to return east? Yeah the low sort of fills in and replaced by some ridging while it redevelops over the western Bering Sea. It then moves east towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Guess you missed Dec 1970 Dec 1970 didn''t have a death vortex over AK...it actually had a decent Aleutian Ridge....it was a -PNA, but that doesn't have to mean warmth for us if there is cold air in Canada On the flip side, here is December 2001...-NAO and all...didn't do anything for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah the low sort of fills in and replaced by some ridging while it redevelops over the western Bering Sea. It then moves east towards the end of the run. i think if it fills...actually fills...then having it deepen again in the face of a rising PNA, falling NAO/AO won't be so easy. The squirrles are as rotund as I've seen them and mother nature typically is a better indicator than any index as much as we scientists would like to dispute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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