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NNE Late Fall & Early Winter

Allenson

By Allenson,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Snowfall has definitely tapered off a bit there for 10-15 minutes but intensity has come back on now. I mean I'm smack in that small area of radar returns to the WNW of the marker on the radar (on RT 108)... is anyone else seeing this type of snowfall?

We are going for our second inch here this evening in this upslope pulse... the snow growth is absolutely ridiculous. At this location I haven't seen this type of orographic response yet this season. This is half-dollar sized, shredded tissue paper, 21F with 9F at 4,000ft, type snow. It lightens up for a few minutes but the flakes stay absolutely huge, and then the next pulse moves in such that you can pretty much see it moving down the street towards you as the vis lowers.

Pic from earlier.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I'm glad you are getting it. Every bit helps up there...if we can get this next storm to stay east enough then the season can really get going.

I'm just very surprised as we're on pace to probably get more snow in this push than we did for the whole synoptic event, haha. With that said, the roads aren't nearly as bad as this morning's snow, as this has like no liquid in it and just packs out or blows away when a car moves over it. This morning's snow was wet and greasy.

I'm trying to think about going to sleep as I'll be up at 4, but I'm curious as to how this plays out for right now. I love when you can see the flakes just floating past the window even with no lights on...they are so big they seem to cast an eerie shadow on the window.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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More snow at my apartment in the village last night than at the base of the mountain... 2.4" of pure fluff at my place in town, but only 1.2-1.3" here at 1,550ft last night. Will call it 1-2" as I'm sure the summit got its usual 1" more than the base so we are up to a storm total of 4-7" from base to summit. However, I think that base number's a bit low as there's between 4-5" on the ground here and we had nothing to start with.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I get worried that something is wrong when I see the neighboring ski areas report less snow (Bolton only showing 4" total, Smuggs 5" total) but there's 4-5" on the ground in the village and up here at the base of the ski area. 5.5" at the Mansfield co-op yesterday at 4-5pm followed by more overnight makes me feel comfortable about saying 7" at the top this morning. Verification comes in about a half hour.

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Allenson

Allenson

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Nice PF. We didn't really get any of that stuff last night outside of just some very light snow overnight to the tune of around 0.1" or so. Sometimes we benefit from a NW flow and other times, not really.

Maybe things are turning around--looking at some light accumulations tomorrow night and perhaps again next week. We just might get on a little roll here. ;)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Nice PF. We didn't really get any of that stuff last night outside of just some very light snow overnight to the tune of around 0.1" or so. Sometimes we benefit from a NW flow and other times, not really.

Maybe things are turning around--looking at some light accumulations tomorrow night and perhaps again next week. We just might get on a little roll here. ;)

BULK OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVERNGT SUNDAY...WITH

LINGERING -SW THRU THE MORNING HRS MONDAY. MDL QPF FOR EVENT IS

HIGH WITH A COUPLE TENTHS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH D-1" FOR

VALLEY LOCALES...AND 1-2" FOR HIR ELEV. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM COULD WARRANT A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN ISOLATED

SPOTS AND COULD COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL HAVE TO

BE MONITORED.

Yep! More snow on the way it seems.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Brutal in the 12/28 thread. I'm holding out hope now...and quite frankly, not even putting much thought into it at the moment. Got to get throught the holiday weekend first.

LOL I'm worried if we get another snowfall up here without anything falling in SNE we will start to get death threats in here... we can't control the weather but seeing as we are getting to colder climo norms, it makes sense that the northern tier can get some snowfall chances.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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Maybe things are turning around--looking at some light accumulations tomorrow night and perhaps again next week. We just might get on a little roll here.

The ECMWF was not quite as impressive with that system on the overnight 00Z run as it was on yesterday’s 12Z run, but there certainly seems to be potential. BTV NWS is watching it, so I added their pertinent discussion below:

INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT THE EVOLUTION/DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CAPE COD BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY TUESDAY AFTN FROM SW-NE WITH HEAVIEST PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...THOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HRS OF THE EVENT TUESDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW IS GENERALLY QUICK MOVING LIMITING OVERALL DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF AMTS. THAT SAID...A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE HRS ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS BECOMING MORE PHASED - AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF SOLN - A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM WITH GREATER SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

A few thoughts

1) I'm getting pretty sore from flogging myself for flying out of BTV last night and missing powder schuss this am.

2) I'd focus on sunday nights event before we even discuss mid-week system. That shortwave sunday night, with the temps forecasted has the potential to put down a solid 4-6 inches of fluffy snow across the green summits. We've seen over and over again these weak shortwaves just over perform because models never really get the impact of that orographic lift. Cold + minimal moisture +n/nw winds = snow in the greens. We don't need some big synoptic system.

3) Can we really get hopes up and down for a storm thats 4 days away? Something is brewing midweek thats about all that's worth saying right now. Once we get the 12/26 shortwave through we'll have a clearer picture of the next inbound energy.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Added a final 0.2" of fluff overnight for a storm total of 4.6" Goodbye grass, hope we don't see you again until April!

How much did you get from like 5-10pm last night? I don't necessarily have a storm total but there was 4-5" on the ground this morning when I left. Yesterday at like 4pm we only had 2" or so on the ground at my Mtn Rd location and all the snow had fallen off the trees... from 5pm-5am I had an additional 2.4" but most of that fell in like a two hour period between 6-8pm.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

A few thoughts

1) I'm getting pretty sore from flogging myself for flying out of BTV last night and missing powder schuss this am.

2) I'd focus on sunday nights event before we even discuss mid-week system. That shortwave sunday night, with the temps forecasted has the potential to put down a solid 4-6 inches of fluffy snow across the green summits. We've seen over and over again these weak shortwaves just over perform because models never really get the impact of that orographic lift. Cold + minimal moisture +n/nw winds = snow in the greens. We don't need some big synoptic system.

3) Can we really get hopes up and down for a storm thats 4 days away? Something is brewing midweek thats about all that's worth saying right now. Once we get the 12/26 shortwave through we'll have a clearer picture of the next inbound energy.

Great post dude. The skiing is quite good this morning and I "tested" some low angle grassy slopes and it was beautiful powder skiing. 3-4" of dense synoptic snow followed by 2-3" of sparkling fluff makes for a very nice, supportable powder surface.

And yeah, I'm really liking the Sunday night event... even 0.2" of QPF with H85 temps dropping towards -10C can produce a 3-6" snowfall. And as you said, like last night's snow, models will always under-estimate orographics and limited moisture so as long as the snow growth turns out ok, we should be able to add a bit to what we have going now.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Great post dude. The skiing is quite good this morning and I "tested" some low angle grassy slopes and it was beautiful powder skiing. 3-4" of dense synoptic snow followed by 2-3" of sparkling fluff makes for a very nice, supportable powder surface.

And yeah, I'm really liking the Sunday night event... even 0.2" of QPF with H85 temps dropping towards -10C can produce a 3-6" snowfall. And as you said, like last night's snow, models will always under-estimate orographics and limited moisture so as long as the snow growth turns out ok, we should be able to add a bit to what we have going now.

Plus I nice burst of instability which I think is really good news for Sunday night. 2-4 or 3-6 seems reasonable for upslope areas.

I'm relatively confident in a bit of front end snow/sleet in higher elevs Tue evening but I'm not sure if it goes to a cold rain or stays wintry. Good news is that it's a <10 hour thump all at night.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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Plus I nice burst of instability which I think is really good news for Sunday night. 2-4 or 3-6 seems reasonable for upslope areas.

I'm relatively confident in a bit of front end snow/sleet in higher elevs Tue evening but I'm not sure if it goes to a cold rain or stays wintry. Good news is that it's a <10 hour thump all at night.

You are a new person!

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dryslot

dryslot

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I think it's funny the mets who bang the snow drum from October to May have turned into warministas. I need to add balance.

Good point, I think the pattern is effecting a lot of folks on here, After a few stellar seasons this one has been a dissapointment so far but by no means over..

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