Festus Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Have a golf tournament tomorrow - "rain or shine". But on the serious side as already mentioned, this could get ugly. Most of the big wood around here (oak, maple, poplar) still has 80 - 90% of leaves. I'll have to try to look it up but does anyone know what's the earliest 6" snow at KLNS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Get your bread and milk! Seriously, though, it is going to be a madhouse at the grocery stores. I have a kid birthday party so I am heading out now to get supplies for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I actually canceled my trip to Pittsburgh this weekend. I do not want to think what the ridgetops from Sideling Hill west to New Stanton are going to look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 From PennDot-- District 8 is Adams, Cumberland, Perry, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon and York * Plowable Snowfall Likely in Parts of D-8 Saturday * A rare late-October plowable snowfall looks on track for parts of D-8 as a developing storm looks to take an almost perfect track for an eastern PA heavy snow event. As with late-season (March & April) snowstorms, elevation will make a HUGE difference. Looking at past similar storms in late-October and early-November, it's quite possible that locations in the mountains of District 8 could get 7 - 14 inches...which could obviously cause problems with some trees still having leaves. Down in the valleys and cities, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer and the wet snow will have a harder time accumulating. Still, I can see 3 - 6 inches on the grass and perhaps even a couple/few inches on some roads--the intensity of the snowfall will be a determining factor, as to how much snow can accumulate on the warm roads. Right now, I see precip (rain-snow mix) arriving between midnight and 3:00am in southwestern D-8 and spreading across all of D-8 by 6:00am or so. Initially, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s--after an hour or two of precip (evaporational cooling), temps will dip to near 32 degrees...so expect accumulating snow across much of D-8 by daybreak. Periods of wet snow, heavy at times, will fall into the afternoon as temps hold near 32 in the mountains and between 32 and 38 in the valleys. The snowstorm will exit by sunset Saturday with lows dipping into the 20s...thus, a hard freeze is likely. Sunday will be partly sunny with highs around 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Absolute Mauling. 1-2" per hr rates. Winds 10-20mph pasting the snow to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So even down here in York this will be mostly snow, maybe some mixing at the beginning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Absolute Mauling. 1-2" per hr rates. Winds 10-20mph pasting the snow to everything. Surface temps are still a few degrees above freezing and it's daytime. Precip rates can only do so much, remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Have a golf tournament tomorrow - "rain or shine". But on the serious side as already mentioned, this could get ugly. Most of the big wood around here (oak, maple, poplar) still has 80 - 90% of leaves. I'll have to try to look it up but does anyone know what's the earliest 6" snow at KLNS? Just off the top of my head I'd think November 6, 1953. Most of the area had 6+ from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 <br>Surface temps are still a few degrees above freezing and it's daytime. Precip rates can only do so much, remember.<br><br><br>It's hovering right at freezing. And CTP already mentioned the 1-2" per hr rates in the disco.<div><br></div><div>NAM text output has most precip at 30-32.</div><div><br></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times; font-size: medium; "><pre style="word-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; "> Station ID: KHGR Lat: 39.70 Long: -77.73 NAM Model Run: 12Z OCT 28, 2011 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr Sfc Prs(mb): 997.6 997.1 996.9 996.3 992.1 989.1 992.2 993.9 997.1 997.7 998.9 998.5 996.9 994.4 996.0 Mean SLP (mb): 1024.4 1023.4 1023.2 1023.0 1018.9 1015.9 1018.9 1020.8 1024.4 1024.4 1025.5 1025.1 1023.6 1020.5 1022.0 2m agl Tmp (F): 32.7 46.9 42.3 36.2 32.2 30.6 31.6 26.6 22.8 38.5 32.2 32.5 33.5 45.2 43.0 2m agl Dewpt(F): 29.3 25.2 29.3 34.4 31.6 30.6 31.1 25.2 21.9 35.5 32.2 32.5 33.3 41.4 42.9 2m agl RH (%): 87 42 59 93 98 100 98 94 96 89 100 100 99 86 99 10m agl Dir: 306 84 128 76 34 1 332 309 284 247 209 181 162 181 198 10m agl Spd(kt): 1 8 4 6 11 13 11 7 6 4 3 3 6 8 3 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.32 1.06 0.37 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.39 1.45 1.81 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.84 </pre></span></div> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Surface temps are still a few degrees above freezing and it's daytime. Precip rates can only do so much, remember. But 1 to 2 inches per hour...That would stick in June and July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Surface temps are still a few degrees above freezing and it's daytime. Precip rates can only do so much, remember. But also remember once the snow sticks, that starts the ball rolling. Trust me, seen enough October snow events to realize that while it's a factor, surface temps aren't a deal breaker. 1-2" rates will overwhelm the ground, it can't melt that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 MDT 1.8" QPF falls at 30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Couple of quick reminders to those living in Central Pennsylvania for the upcoming event: This is a very early season snowfall. Elevation will be a critical factor in determining who gets what. Snowfall maps, though interesting to look at, are not set in stone. Case in point is the latest run of the SREFs which paint 14.75" maximum over Harrisburg, PA. Experience has taught me that snowfall maps are not a great forecasting tool, and to rely more on BUFKIT. Observations (lower, mid, upper levels) are key. Model are just prognostications of what will transpire. Given that we are T-24 hours until the event I take run-to-run variances with a grain of salt unless there is a clear consensus across the board. Put more stock in observations, versus initial forecasts upstream. For example, locations that are seeing snow where it was not originally forecast to fall, or vice versa. Finally, this is a potential 50 year event. Regardless of the eventual outcome, it will be fun to unfold and provide everyone with an excellent learning experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just off the top of my head I'd think November 6, 1953. Most of the area had 6+ from that storm. Impressive for off the top of your head! Just looked it up officially and the earliest >6" at KMDT is indeed 6.5 on November 6, 1953 followed by 8.9 on November 7th. The October max is 2.1 on 10/30/25. http://www.erh.noaa....snowRECORDS.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 But 1 to 2 inches per hour...That would stick in June and July. 3/1/09 in Atlanta...heaviest snow I've seen since I became a weather weenie. IIIRC the nearest official station reported .5" QPF in 3 hours. Nada on the ground because of stubborn 36-37 degree sfc temps! But that was a totally different setup; an ULL with a relatively narrow swath of accum. snow because only places with insane precip rates cooled off enough. Still, though, be wary of surface temps, especially in an almost unprecedented storm like this without a lot of analogs we can look to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just off the top of my head I'd think November 6, 1953. Most of the area had 6+ from that storm. To quote Eric Horst from the Millersville Univ. Weather Center: P.S. The largest October snowfall on record here in Lancaster is 2.4" on October 19, 1940. The largest "mid-Autumn" snow here was 13.5 inches on November 6, 1953....so scary, big-time snowfall is possible around Halloween season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 But also remember once the snow sticks, that starts the ball rolling. Trust me, seen enough October snow events to realize that while it's a factor, surface temps aren't a deal breaker. 1-2" rates will overwhelm the ground, it can't melt that fast. I completely agree. But even if it is sticking with surface temperatures above 32F, it is still melting... which can have major effects on snow totals. Still have to keep that in mind when forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I completely agree. But even if it is sticking with surface temperatures above 32F, it is still melting... which can have major effects on snow totals. Still have to keep that in mind when forecasting. NAM has 32 or below. We will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Final Totals UNV: 2 to 5 IPT: 1 to 3 HGR: 3 to 6 MDT: 4 to 7 AVP: 2 to 4 AOO: 2 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see 12z GFS shift a bit east from past runs. The ridging ahead of the storm is a little weaker through 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Have a golf tournament tomorrow - "rain or shine". But on the serious side as already mentioned, this could get ugly. Most of the big wood around here (oak, maple, poplar) still has 80 - 90% of leaves. I'll have to try to look it up but does anyone know what's the earliest 6" snow at KLNS? Thinking better go with a colored ball. Just off the top of my head I'd think November 6, 1953. Most of the area had 6+ from that storm. Penn Thanks for the info! One thing the snow shouldn't stick around to long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS looks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see 12z GFS shift a bit east from past runs. The ridging ahead of the storm is a little weaker through 12hr. That doesn't seem to be happening so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 through 30 hr it looks to be a hair east but doesnt have surface low quite as strong, allowing heavier precip to make it just a hair further north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Model pretty much say.. hey trees pack up your branches you won't have them soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look at that deform mmm nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see 12z GFS shift a bit east from past runs. The ridging ahead of the storm is a little weaker through 12hr. I can't post an image right now, but take a look at the feature up at 300mb about to come crashing in from the Dakotas. That might compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z GFS is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have pics from Oct. 2009 in State college. Here is what 5-6" can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ehhh...on the fringe here. and inch or 2 is great for october but it stings a little that just to my east 4-7 +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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