Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If someone had a ratio of the amount of red tag posts to non red-tag post our sub-forum would win hands down. Not surprising, with Penn State/Accuweather/NWS here. Regarding the increased totals...they'd hinted at it earlier so I bet it's just increased confidence in a large event rather than what they think is a trend. What I think is still the big wild card is road conditions tomorrow. A ton of people are driving in for the game, some of them tomorrow morning if they live nearby. Gonna be nasty if we get even some snow on the roads with a ton of traffic. In town might not be so bad-but the roads coming in that get up to 1500, 2000ft could be rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 New Warning PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-291600-/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0010.111029T0600Z-111030T0200Z/NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER757 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDTSATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH WILL BE MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET NEAR...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INTESTATE 81.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT.* TIMING...BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SNOW WEIGHS HEAVILY ON TREES WHICH MAY STILL HAVE MOST OF THEIR LEAVES.* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.* TEMPERATURES...INITIALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT...THEN FALLING IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM.* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO UNDER ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 am i assuming correctly that everyone here is assuming a normal 10-1 for this one? i have to admit i'm thinking closer to 8-1 to 9-1 given the time of year. but some other data (like cobb data that someone showed me from the 18Z run) was hinting at 20-1 snow at times in the valley cities. please tell me we're not going to go over 11-1 on this, because some of the 18Z numerical numbers at mount pocono and avoca would give a foot to the valley cities and possibly 18" to 2 ft to the poconos with anything over 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 am i assuming correctly that everyone here is assuming a normal 10-1 for this one? i have to admit i'm thinking closer to 8-1 to 9-1 given the time of year. but some other data (like cobb data that someone showed me from the 18Z run) was hinting at 20-1 snow at times in the valley cities. please tell me we're not going to go over 11-1 on this, because some of the 18Z numerical numbers at mount pocono and avoca would give a foot to the valley cities and possibly 18" to 2 ft to the poconos with anything over 10-1. Snippet from NWS CTP TIME OF YEAR AND AIR TEMPS INITIALLY ARGUE FOR A LOW SNOW-WATERRATIO BUT ALL MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS TO POINT TO A RAPID COOL DOWNAND A 10:1 OR BETTER RATIO TAKING OVER AS ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY AIRIN PLACE WINS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The precip seems a little south doesn't it? kinda looks homely so far, but I'm sure that changes onces it swings around the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Evap cooling taking place here. Temp is falling nicely now. Down to 42. Was 45 30 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The precip seems a little south doesn't it? kinda looks homely so far, but I'm sure that changes onces it swings around the trough. Per HRRR (for whatever it's worth), the band doesn't REALLY begin to intensify until about 6AM (10Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 BGM going for the valley screw job. Saturday: Snow before 1pm, then rain and snow. High near 37. Northeast wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Night: Snow, mainly before 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North wind between 9 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Per HRRR (for whatever it's worth), the band doesn't REALLY begin to intensify until about 6AM (10Z) Ya the precip will explode around sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Winds have shifted to the west at 15mph and now down to 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The precip seems a little south doesn't it? kinda looks homely so far, but I'm sure that changes onces it swings around the trough. Per HRRR (for whatever it's worth), the band doesn't REALLY begin to intensify until about 6AM (10Z) Yeah, this is one of those storms where radar now isn't that important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah, this is one of those storms where radar now isn't that important. Where do you get the HRRR's on the new model page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Where do you get the HRRR's on the new model page? I donno what you mean exactly, but here's a link to the HRRR site: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 am i assuming correctly that everyone here is assuming a normal 10-1 for this one? i have to admit i'm thinking closer to 8-1 to 9-1 given the time of year. but some other data (like cobb data that someone showed me from the 18Z run) was hinting at 20-1 snow at times in the valley cities. please tell me we're not going to go over 11-1 on this, because some of the 18Z numerical numbers at mount pocono and avoca would give a foot to the valley cities and possibly 18" to 2 ft to the poconos with anything over 10-1. Jim Earlier today the NWS posted in one of their discussions they was thinking 10-1 with 8-1 in the lower elavations. Not sure how much that has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Jim Earlier today the NWS posted in one of their discussions they was thinking 10-1 with 8-1 in the lower elavations. Not sure how much that has changed. NWS BGM is actually now thinking some of the valleys may see rain mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 One thing I have been thinking about... does anyone ever remember a big snowstorm with ground being so saturated like it is right now around where the flooding was in Sept? Could the fact that the ground has been so damp for so long mean it is actually cooler than many seem to think (evaporational cooling, etc)? I know Jamie has pointed out in earlier posts about warm surface not meaning it won't accumulate. Just wondering if soil/surface temperature is actually cooler and wont take much to allow snow to begin to accumulate... Thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 One thing I have been thinking about... does anyone ever remember a big snowstorm with ground being so saturated like it is right now around where the flooding was in Sept? Could the fact that the ground has been so damp for so long mean it is actually cooler than many seem to think (evaporational cooling, etc)? I know Jamie has pointed out in earlier posts about warm surface not meaning it won't accumulate. Just wondering if soil/surface temperature is actually cooler and wont take much to allow snow to begin to accumulate... Thoughts anyone? Well you have two processes that work against each other there. As you pointed out, evaporation from a moist ground would tend to cool it down. However, waterlogged soil also has a much higher heat capacity, so cooling by conduction with cold air would be much slower with a wet ground. Which one "wins out" depends on lots of factors, and I'm not sure what the answer would be in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well you have two processes that work against each other there. As you pointed out, evaporation from a moist ground would tend to cool it down. However, waterlogged soil also has a much higher heat capacity, so cooling by conduction with cold air would be much slower with a wet ground. Which one "wins out" depends on lots of factors, and I'm not sure what the answer would be in this case. good point... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 FWIW, the RUC is trending weaker and further west with the low, but further east with the moisture as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just an FYI, the radar mosaic will look rather unimpressive until mid to late morning tomorrow. That is when all the dynamics get conglomerated, so don't go jumping off a cliff. Thus far everything is on track, the two streams are modeled correctly and temperature profiles are just where they should be. I know this is a dicey setup, but you are only going to get yourself overworked if you freak out over every radar/satellite frame update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just an FYI, the radar mosaic will look rather unimpressive until mid to late morning tomorrow. That is when all the dynamics get conglomerated, so don't go jumping off a cliff. Thus far everything is on track, the two streams are modeled correctly and temperature profiles are just where they should be. I know this is a dicey setup, but you are only going to get yourself overworked if you freak out over every radar/satellite frame update. Agreed. If we have only managed an inch by 10AM here in State College, I believe we'll still be almost right on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NAM east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nam Dumps 10" here. Good enough for me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 WOW.... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F29%2F2011+00UTC&rname=FOUR+PANEL+CHARTS&pname=500_vort_ht%231000_500_thick%23700_rh_ht%23850_temp_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=018&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 A friend driving the turnpike has told me it is snowing just East of Bedford. Point and click says the elevation is right around 1k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snow falling in Martinsburg, Blair County, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 KAOO reporting light snow at 37/30... same for KJST but at 32/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Dat nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 At Wegmans tonight, I eavesdropped and heard a tin of people doubting tomorrow is anything but snow in grass. People are retarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 weather world snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.