NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Going with 2-4" for the NEPA valleys, 6-10" for the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Horst going bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Clouds have come in with a vengence and it has that classic winter storm look. 48/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My guess for highest accumulation is Eastern Schuylkill County....they look primed right now. UNV and IPT...AOO also, are a model shift away from either a big wallop or very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Clouds have come in with a vengence and it has that classic winter storm look. 48/26 was thinking that very thing on my drive from Carlisle back to the Burg. Early altocum now strat fract looking. Precip on the way is the signal from both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is usually around the time where we see a slight east/weaker trend in the short term models, so lets see if that's the case. We're also in the time frame where watching the radar is important in terms of actual vs. forecasted precip. My professor was talking about this storm and mentioned that many times in these types of situations, the trough of warm air aloft (ie the place that gets the best dynamics) tends to not make it back too far west. He said this setup may yield only a few inches back here, but will dump on places to the NW of the big cities. Lets see if he can out-forecast the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My guess for highest accumulation is Eastern Schuylkill County....they look primed right now. UNV and IPT...AOO also, are a model shift away from either a big wallop or very little snow. Screw the models at this point. from here on in, its SPC Mesoscale Analysis for the duration (as long as cable and power stay online) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Screw the models at this point. from here on in, its SPC Mesoscale Analysis for the duration (as long as cable and power stay online) http://www.spc.noaa....or=19&parm=pmsl and us in the Hbg area have lost it enough already this year. But i'm preparing to lose it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Juicy very juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is usually around the time where we see a slight east/weaker trend in the short term models, so lets see if that's the case. We're also in the time frame where watching the radar is important in terms of actual vs. forecasted precip. My professor was talking about this storm and mentioned that many times in these types of situations, the trough of warm air aloft (ie the place that gets the best dynamics) tends to not make it back too far west. He said this setup may yield only a few inches back here, but will dump on places to the NW of the big cities. Lets see if he can out-forecast the models... He seems to know what he's talking about..we've seen it happen a lot. Just NW of NYC to Philly could see the biggest totals...while west of a line drawn from AVP to HGR see less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Another great disco from CTP .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE IDEA OF ANEARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.12Z NAM/GFS BOTH BRING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW TO NEAR THE MOUTHOF THE DELMARVA BY MID DAY SATURDAY SPREADING A LARGE SHIELD OFMDT-HVY PRECIPITATION OVER ALMOST ALL OF MY FCST AREA. TIMINGSUGGESTS THAT SNOW OR RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS BYDAYBREAK AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITYTHROUGHOUT THE MORNING.EXPERIMENTAL HPC GRAPHICS SUGGEST WE SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES OF1-2 INCHES PER HOUR FROM ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATEAFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF A POTENT COUPLED UPPER JETHELPS SUPPORT THE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF DEEP LAYERED FRONTOGENETICFORCING UNDERLYING A DEEP AREA OF VERY STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSERATES. IT ALL SUGGESTS VERY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTIONWITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ADDED CONTRIBUTION OF EMBEDDEDCONVECTION.HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE PREVIOUS WATCH AREAAND EXPANDED IT TO A STRIPE OF COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. HAVEALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.TIME OF YEAR AND AIR TEMPS INITIALLY ARGUE FOR A LOW SNOW-WATERRATIO BUT ALL MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS TO POINT TO A RAPID COOL DOWNAND A 10:1 OR BETTER RATIO TAKING OVER AS ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY AIRIN PLACE WINS OUT. HAVE DEPICTED A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCH SNOWFALLWHICH IN AND OF ITSELF WOULD BE AN HISTORIC EVENT FOR THE REGIONAND TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF WE END UP WITHHIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC SETUP AND INTENSITY OFTHE FORCING.THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW COULD PROVE TROUBLESOME. AS ISNORMAL...MANY AREAS - ESP THE LOWER SUSQ - STILL HAVE A HIGHPERCENTAGE OF THE LEAVES ON THE TREES. THIS HEAVY WET SNOW WILLWEIGH THE TREES DOWN AND BREAK LIMBS AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.THERE COULD BE WIDESPREAD OUTAGES GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OFHEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO A POTENTIALLY VERYDAMAGING AND DISRUPTIVE STORM.IN ADDITION...MANY FOLKS TRAVELING TO STATE COLLEGE THIS WEEKENDSHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION AS TRAVEL IS EXPECTEDTO BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 5400 crit thickness line = US76 through PA - bisects NJ out to the coast. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow. Talk about heavy heavy heavy heavy.....snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is usually around the time where we see a slight east/weaker trend in the short term models, so lets see if that's the case. We're also in the time frame where watching the radar is important in terms of actual vs. forecasted precip. My professor was talking about this storm and mentioned that many times in these types of situations, the trough of warm air aloft (ie the place that gets the best dynamics) tends to not make it back too far west. He said this setup may yield only a few inches back here, but will dump on places to the NW of the big cities. Lets see if he can out-forecast the models... NAM ain't budgin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Take this with a huge grain of salt since I'm new to the area, but I like drawing maps : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where does CTP keep their viewing area snowfall map predictions at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Take this with a huge grain of salt since I'm new to the area, but I like drawing maps : 12"+ good god. Welp no power for me pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where does CTP keep their viewing area snowfall map predictions at? Here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Fingers crossed for mallows map! Meteo Prof said 4-8, potential for more but ground temps could cut back on amounts (I'm sure Jamie has something to say to that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Fingers crossed for mallows map! Meteo Prof said 4-8, potential for more but ground temps could cut back on amounts (I'm sure Jamie has something to say to that). I'm curious, who said that? George Young seems to think less optimistically for this setup. But then again he is not a diehard model watcher and just knows a heck of a lot about all things weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd say either Easternuswx or some of our Harrisburg boys have a solid shot at 8..and and outside shot at a double digit figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Fingers crossed for mallows map! Meteo Prof said 4-8, potential for more but ground temps could cut back on amounts (I'm sure Jamie has something to say to that). warm ground definitely can cut back on amounts. My point is always that it won't preclude accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 warm ground definitely can cut back on amounts. My point is always that it won't preclude accumulations. It might melt the first half an inch to inch but after that it is sticking with these rates tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd say either Easternuswx or some of our Harrisburg boys have a solid shot at 8..and and outside shot at a double digit figure. We've hoarded America's rain this year, might as well hoard the snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Terrible time to pick up a cold. Light returns already creeping up into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the new HPC maps look better for us western folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CTP dropped HBG from 6-10 to 4-8, fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CTP dropped HBG from 6-10 to 4-8, fyi. It has been 4-8" since the watch came out . They might have to go higher again looking at models this evening. Either way a lot of snow coming in the next 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The National Weather Service also says there will be mixing until 2 in the afternoon...where do they see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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