djr5001 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 they tried that once before back in the 90's and it didn't work out for any of us, storm went way west. the crew from TWC kept moving. in the morning they were standing on the steps of the capitol saying, "Harrisburg will be measuring their snow with this" and he held up a yard stick........not sure if we even got an inch that time. is he for real coming here, or you kidding? He just posted it on his twitter account a couple minutes ago that he was heading for Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Catoctin WX, No pre-treat as of now. I gather you are coming to Homecoming? Good to know, thanks. Yessir. I'll be at the Science and Math lunch thingy at 12. Probably tour the WIC and new SMC a bit and then head to jacks to drink like the old days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here's the warning text. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 108 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...FIRST WINTER STORM OF THIS SEASON TAKING SHAPE... .A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD HEAVY WET...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WET SNOW TO THE REGION STARTING OVERNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOME OF THE REGION`S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION TO VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY WEIGH DOWN TREES WHICH STILL HAVE LEAVES ON THEM...LEADING TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. PAZ019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066- 290115- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0008.111029T1000Z-111030T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0010.111029T0600Z-111030T0200Z/ SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN- SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATE COLLEGE...HUNTINGDON... MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN... WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY... SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG... HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK... LANCASTER 108 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW...MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * TIMING...AROUND DAYBREAK OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SNOW WEIGHS HEAVILY ON TREES WHICH MAY STILL HAVE MOST OF THEIR LEAVES. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO WELL UNDER A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...BLANKET AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z Canadian looks to be on board now, and the 12z WRF's from NCEP (NMM and ARW) are too. So I think every single 12z model so far has shown at least 0.5" of liquid-equivalent precip at UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is anyone else getting the 4-8" warning? That is all I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z Canadian looks to be on board now, and the 12z WRF's from NCEP (NMM and ARW) are too. So I think every single 12z model so far has shown at least 0.5" of liquid-equivalent precip at UNV. 12z GFS ensemble mean gives UNV 1.25": http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24036.gif Meaning some of them give even more (and some less, of course)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is anyone else getting the 4-8" warning? That is all I see. The top part of the text seems to show 6-10", but the meat of the warning still shows 4-8"... probably an accidental holdover from the watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 He just posted it on his twitter account a couple minutes ago that he was heading for Harrisburg nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The top part of the text seems to show 6-10", but the meat of the warning still shows 4-8"... probably an accidental holdover from the watch? Not sure. Still think 6-10" is the right way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is anyone else getting the 4-8" warning? That is all I see. They re-issued the warning five minutes after the initial one, added Clearfield County and changed the totals to 4-8". I'm very surprised at the advisory in Warren, McKean and Elk -- looks very borderline to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 why is my area (clearfield) under winter storm warning with only 1-3 expected? would have thought an advisory would have been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In other news. Current obs. Cloudy and 48. 48 is the high so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For those that are curious, here's the ARW output: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/hrw-arw/20111028/12/hrw-arw_eus_036_precip_p36.gif And the NMM (this won't load 'til hr 39 loads on the model, but I chose hr 39 because there's still a bit of snow occurring at hr 36): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/hrw-nmm/20111028/12/hrw-nmm_eus_039_precip_p36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 why is my area (clearfield) under winter storm warning with only 1-3 expected? It seems they're in the process of getting the warnings configured. They likely have yet to update the forecast grids. I'm also surprised advisories are expanded all the way back past Bradford, I was thinking maybe Clearfield, Potter, Cameron and Northern Clinton were gonna be the boundary counties with advisories. At any rate, I don't think there was a snow event all last winter that ended up involving the vast majority of the CTP coverage with winter storm warnings. Just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 where has tony martin been? Good question. Probably busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They re-issued the warning five minutes after the initial one, added Clearfield County and changed the totals to 4-8". I'm very surprised at the advisory in Warren, McKean and Elk -- looks very borderline to me. I guarantee those advisories will not verify. Heck I doubt Potter county verifies. I'd almost put money on Clearfield and Tioga county not reaching warning criteria, but rather advisory. Potter, McKean, Elk, Clearfield, western parts of Tioga, and northern parts of Clinton county do not do well in Nor Easters almost 9/10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So many people are gonna be caught off guard by this storm in my area. I literally heard almost everyone in my school today say that all we are getting is 1 to 3 inches! They are in for a BIG surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 So many people are gonna be caught off guard by this storm in my area. I literally heard almost everyone in my school today say that all we are getting is 1 to 3 inches! They are in for a BIG surprise! My gf's parents find this event laughable. They don't believe it can snow before December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My gf's parents find this event laughable. They don't believe it can snow before December. Have them call Jaime, he'll straighten em out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh hi there, just got in from working all morning. I see the NAM finally has come around and the GFS continues to kick ass. About the whole Penn State thing... the game is likely to be played. I'd be very surprised if they actually cancelled and postponed it. With that said, I cannot wrap my mind around what a logistical nightmare this is going to be in State College. Clearly, any grass lots will be unuseable for parking.. so that already sends that traffic into some of the other lots around campus and around town. That much would be a pain but manageable, but tack on the fact that the height of this storm is pegged for those several hours up to gametime when everyones piling in and thats liable to make it look like something out of the movie Armageddon. There's also going to be the matter of getting to State College too, and i'm afraid it's going to be a big pile em up day on the highways with it being the first snowfall of the year (and a big one at that) and alot of people not quite expecting/believing such a high impact event. I linked to this post on Twitter and OnwardState retweeted it, MAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Have them call Jaime, he'll straighten em out! Winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My FB feed is populated with so many people saying, "Remember all the WINTER STORM WARNINGS last winter and we hardly got any snow? No way is tomorrow going to be bad, it's not even cold outside today!" stuff. To their credit, it doesn't feel like snow at all, it's sunny and pleasant and last year did feature a lot of busts here in HBG. I don't think they will be as fortunate come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Any word on the EURO guys??? Big run. Hearing it goes southeast of the BM...fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Have them call Jaime, he'll straighten em out! I don't think there are that many people taking this seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At my school most do not think it's gonna snow in october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Any word on the EURO guys??? Big run. Hearing it goes southeast of the BM...fwiw. I think from what I am gathering it's more or less the same for us. Nothing bad, in other words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Any word on the EURO guys??? Big run. Hearing it goes southeast of the BM...fwiw. It is about the same. Models to pay attention to now are the short range ones. Euro did its job now it is out of its killer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 50-60% chance of 12"+ Niceeee... Here is 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm sick of being fringed by Nor'Easters and this looks to fringe like the others. I'm thinking about chasing this storm this weekend. How does Scranton look, I'm thinking bout going there, they look to get quite a bit. Any other places for suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Final call. HISTORICAL AND CRIPPLING EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL A low pressure system will form near the coast of North Carolina late Friday night/ early Saturday morning before moving up along the coast. Heavy snowfall is expected in this event for a large portion of the state. Max accumulations may push a foot of snow in some mountains. Snowfall rates will likely reach 1-2 inches per hour at times tomorrow afternoon. Whiteout conditions are possible at times as well. This early season snow will be wet and heavy. With many trees still having their leaves the added weight from the snow will cause some branches and maybe even whole trees to topple. This will result in possible widespread power outages. I suggest many charge up your cell phones fully tonight and have blankets, flashlight and anything else you may need if the power goes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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