Tracking the Late October Potential

[BethesdaWX]

told ya' you'll learn

we've all made that mistake before

you got lucky, didn't see the baroclincic zone shifted If we hold this solution through 12z tomorrow my doubt will lower a bit.

[mitchnick]

agree if the nam is right with overall temp profile. im surprised we get another run with it so cold at least.i dont really love the 500 vort passage but i suppose it will do.

I don't know how many runs you need before you truly bite

I understand, I can read a calendar too, but you can't deny the incredible consensus, and why should we believe the models any less Oct 27 than Dec 27

[HoCoSnowBo]

Henry M -- "If the NAM were correct, which it may, it would be a major power disaster for DC, Philly and NYC. It would be 6-12 inches of heavy wet snow with thunder."

[Ian]

The 500 is a little north of what I'd like. That always raised the specter of a dry slot but it will due for now.

Here's the soundings for DCA at 15Z

Date: 39 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 29 OCT 11 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1012 56 1.2 0.6 96 0.6 0.9 357 11 273.4 274.1 273.5 284.1 3.94 1 1000 148 0.4 2 16 273.6 2 950 559 -0.3 -0.4 100 0.0 -0.4 28 34 276.8 277.5 275.4 287.6 3.91 3 900 991 -1.0 -1.2 99 0.2 -1.1 57 32 280.5 281.1 277.3 291.3 3.89 4 850 1446 -2.6 -2.9 98 0.3 -2.7 71 20 283.4 284.0 278.4 293.6 3.62 5 800 1925 -4.2 -4.6 97 0.4 -4.4 98 22 286.7 287.3 279.7 296.5 3.39 6 750 2435 -3.6 -3.9 98 0.3 -3.7 145 29 292.6 293.3 283.0 303.9 3.82 7 700 2980 -4.4 -4.7 98 0.2 -4.6 170 39 297.6 298.3 285.0 309.1 3.86 8 650 3562 -6.2 -6.5 97 0.4 -6.3 191 47 302.0 302.7 286.4 313.0 3.61 9 600 4185 -9.6 -10.3 95 0.7 -9.9 207 50 305.0 305.5 286.8 314.0 2.90 10 550 4851 -14.0 -15.3 90 1.2 -14.4 213 57 307.5 307.8 286.8 314.2 2.12 11 500 5567 -19.3 -21.1 86 1.8 -19.7 213 62 309.5 309.8 286.8 314.2 1.43 12 450 6341 -25.7 -28.2 80 2.5 -26.1 217 67 310.9 311.1 286.6 313.7 0.84 13 400 7183 -31.6 -34.4 76 2.8 -31.9 211 79 314.0 314.1 287.3 315.8 0.52 14 350 8116 -37.5 -40.6 73 3.1 -37.8 203 93 318.2 318.2 288.5 319.3 0.32 15 300 9159 -45.8 -51.9 51 6.0 -46.1 207 104 320.7 320.8 289.1 321.2 0.11 16 250 10354 -51.9 218 113 328.9 17 200 11788 -54.3 226 129 346.7 18 150 13624 -54.8 233 95 375.6 19 100 16175 -59.1 239 61 413.5 TRP 0 WND 0

and 18Z.......surface temp drops to around 33 degrees.

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 18Z SAT 29 OCT 11 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1010 54 0.5 0.4 99 0.2 0.5 334 14 272.9 273.6 273.1 283.4 3.89 1 1000 135 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.2 343 20 273.3 274.0 273.3 283.8 3.86 2 950 545 -1.4 -1.4 100 0.0 -1.4 6 38 275.8 276.4 274.4 285.7 3.63 3 900 975 -2.1 -2.2 100 0.0 -2.1 30 34 279.3 279.9 276.3 289.4 3.62 4 850 1429 -3.3 -3.6 98 0.3 -3.4 47 26 282.7 283.3 277.9 292.5 3.46 5 800 1907 -4.2 -4.6 98 0.3 -4.4 75 17 286.6 287.2 279.7 296.4 3.40 6 750 2415 -5.0 -5.4 97 0.4 -5.1 128 21 291.2 291.8 281.8 301.2 3.42 7 700 2957 -5.6 -5.7 99 0.1 -5.7 161 35 296.3 296.9 284.1 306.9 3.56 8 650 3538 -7.2 -7.3 100 0.0 -7.2 183 46 300.8 301.4 285.7 311.2 3.41 9 600 4158 -10.7 -10.8 99 0.1 -10.7 199 50 303.8 304.3 286.2 312.5 2.80 10 550 4821 -15.9 -16.9 92 1.0 -16.2 204 49 305.2 305.6 285.7 311.1 1.85 11 500 5531 -21.3 -23.4 84 2.0 -21.8 204 54 307.0 307.2 285.6 310.8 1.16 12 450 6298 -27.2 -30.9 71 3.7 -27.8 202 67 309.1 309.2 285.8 311.3 0.65 13 400 7137 -32.8 -40.9 44 8.1 -33.6 206 76 312.4 312.4 286.5 313.3 0.27 14 350 8065 -37.9 -54.4 16 16.4 -38.8 214 86 317.6 317.6 288.1 317.9 0.07 15 300 9113 -44.0 -64.4 9 20.4 -44.6 218 99 323.3 323.4 289.8 323.4 0.02 16 250 10315 -50.3 -69.1 9 18.8 -50.6 222 108 331.3 331.3 292.1 331.4 0.01 17 200 11760 -53.1 -74.2 6 21.1 -53.5 231 102 348.6 348.6 296.3 348.7 0.01 18 150 13606 -54.8 -80.5 3 25.7 -55.2 232 92 375.7 375.7 301.5 375.7 0.00 19 100 16163 -59.3 -86.8 2 27.5 -59.7 243 70 413.1 413.1 306.9 413.1 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0

it seems the odds of breaking the oct record might be up from earlier.

but if you miss (or dont have) the convection youre screwed right?

[usedtobe]

The 18Z since the other data got jumbled.

[chris87]

1319769654[/url]' post='1068666']

I don't know how many runs you need before you truly bite

I understand, I can read a calendar too, but you can't deny the incredible consensus, and why should we believe the models any less Oct 27 than Dec 27

There's no benefit to going all in right now...we're in uncharted territory.

[TUweathermanDD]

I don't know how many runs you need before you truly bite

I understand, I can read a calendar too, but you can't deny the incredible consensus, and why should we believe the models any less Oct 27 than Dec 27

Mitch, you starting to believe?

[PhineasC]

Henry M -- "If the NAM were correct, which it may, it would be a major power disaster for DC, Philly and NYC. It would be 6-12 inches of heavy wet snow with thunder."

It would be a couple of inches best case. How does that guy still collect a paycheck?

[Ian]

There's no benefit to going all in right now...we're in uncharted territory.

looking at just oct is probably sort of misleading at this point.. clearly early to mid-nov pattern is closer to now than oct 1 most yrs.

but even going into that period you see a lot (edit: well not a lot, bad term for this stat.. but a number) of T or 2-4 3-6 type of numbers.. not necessarily a lot of middle ground tho there is some

[RTutton]

total qpf through 48 hrs, some is rain, of course

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

IMO if this verifies Fairfax, Montgomery and up to Baltimore and immediate west suburbs seem to get the bulls eye. Not that I think this is likely.

[Deck Pic]

There's no benefit to going all in right now...we're in uncharted territory.

agreed....If you are going to shove your whole stack in, wait til tomorrow evening....

[usedtobe]

it seems the odds of breaking the oct record might be up from earlier.

but if you miss (or dont have) the convection youre screwed right?

Sure looks cold after the storm, the 28 degree min record could certainly fall Sunday night. The sounding look almost like the convective scheme might have kicked in with that kind of dry look that they get above 700 mb.

[BethesdaWX]

It would be a couple of inches best case. How does that guy still collect a paycheck?

If the NAM has the temp profile correct it'd be more like 2-5" assuming the ground doesn't reduce the number. Still seems overdone to me.

[chris87]

1319769843[/url]' post='1068697']

looking at just oct is probably sort of misleading at this point.. clearly early to mid-nov pattern is closer to now than oct 1 most yrs.

but even going into that period you see a lot (edit: well not a lot, bad term for this stat.. but a number) of T or 2-4 3-6 type of numbers.. not necessarily a lot of middle ground tho there is some

Yeah it's just a tough call right now...I won't feel good until I see things actually changing over on Sat.

[DCMetroWinston]

NAM has potential frost almost near North Carolina/South Carolina border.

Hoachie Momma for the lilacs!

Now, is the time for average first frost for that area. http://obsweatherguy.blogspot.com/2010/10/first-frost-almost-on-schedule.html

[Deck Pic]

looking at just oct is probably sort of misleading at this point.. clearly early to mid-nov pattern is closer to now than oct 1 most yrs.

but even going into that period you see a lot (edit: well not a lot, bad term for this stat.. but a number) of T or 2-4 3-6 type of numbers.. not necessarily a lot of middle ground tho there is some

some or many of the T examples probably dumped 1-2"+ in the burbs and maybe more in some locations.....to get an accumulating event inside the beltway is remarkably rare, but for Germantown, Leesburg, etc to get over an inch is probably a 1 in 20 or 25 year event

[usedtobe]

agreed....If you are going to shove your whole stack in, wait til tomorrow evening....

Tomorrow's 12Z run will probably start us shoving chips in epecially for the western guys but maybe for everyone providing the NAM stays with it's cold west look and the other models don't waffle. I'm surprised how wet it is given the initial low goes so far east but the 850 track is almost ideal. The 500 vort track a little less so than the last run.

[TalcottWx]

That NAM is really pretty even for me in Towson when looking at temperatures and the skew's on twisterdata...

[psuhoffman]

I have not wanted to get my hopes up for anything given the time of year...it just felt silly but I am starting to pay attention now.

[Deck Pic]

Tomorrow's 12Z run will probably start us shoving chips in epecially for the western guys but maybe for everyone providing the NAM stays with it's cold west look and the other models don't waffle. I'm surprised how wet it is given the initial low goes so far east but the 850 track is almost ideal. The 500 vort track a little less so than the last run.

I will probably stay up for the GFS and Euro.....you will see them tomorrow....I'm still bothered a bit by the date even if the models hammer us.....

[aldie 22]

Sheesh...NAM drops temps into the low 20's after the storm....that's a little chilly for anytime of the year

[Avdave]

Sheesh...NAM drops temps into the low 20's after the storm....that's a little chilly for anytime of the year

End of the growing season

[stormtracker]

There's no benefit to going all in right now...we're in uncharted territory.

I can see what he's saying, but I agree with you as well.

I mean, how long before we see this until we stop saying "it's October". If I was a LWX, I'd wait until 12z tomorrow.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DT's first guess

http://www.wxrisk.co...-low-oct-28-29/

[wxmeddler]

I'm on shift tomorrow morning and have make a forecast for the lower Susquehanna valley here at the weather center here at MU tomorrow. No Sat/Sun forecasters means that my shift is usually the last 7 day forecast for the weekend. Oh boy..

[chris87]

1319770954[/url]' post='1068797']

I can see what he's saying, but I agree with you as well.

I mean, how long before we see this until we stop saying "it's October". If I was a LWX, I'd wait until 12z tomorrow.

Yeah I'm glad I don't have to make any official forecasts!

[MDstorm]

psuhoffman in the house, Zwyts staying up for the Euro, and Wes posting at 11PM.....this is getting interesting.

MDstorm

[stormtracker]

Tomorrow's 12Z run will probably start us shoving chips in epecially for the western guys but maybe for everyone providing the NAM stays with it's cold west look and the other models don't waffle. I'm surprised how wet it is given the initial low goes so far east but the 850 track is almost ideal. The 500 vort track a little less so than the last run.

If the NAM holds at 12z, what would you do? I know you're usually cautious (and with good reason).

[snowdude]

I can see what he's saying, but I agree with you as well.

I mean, how long before we see this until we stop saying "it's October". If I was a LWX, I'd wait until 12z tomorrow.

Good point! That's the problem most forecasters are facing. We're looking at climatology, which we're all taught to do, especially during this time of year. BUT snow is possible in October and there is a first for everything. You gotta be conservative to start, and wait till tomorrow and see what everything is saying.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The SREFS snow probability maps are a thing to behold.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROB_21z/probsnwloop.html