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Tracking the Late October Potential


stormtracker

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The surface low at 36 hrs is farther off the coast so unless it redevelops closer to the 850 low, this run probably will not be as wet as the last.

If the globals are to be believed as far as temps and the over-amplification, would a track farther offshore be somewhat beneficial in keeping the 540 line somewhat more supressed?

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NAM puts the surface low much farther east, but based on the bagginess in the isobars, I suspect it will jump the surface low west on the next panel or two. Especially given the location of the 850 low. Not quite as juicy as the 18z, but still pretty wet. Looks a slight bit colder.

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yeah, but I don't think that's a bad thing in light of marginal temps

agree if the nam is right with overall temp profile. im surprised we get another run with it so cold at least.i dont really love the 500 vort passage but i suppose it will do.

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agree if the nam is right with overall temp profile. im surprised we get another run with it so cold at least.i dont really love the 500 vort passage but i suppose it will do.

The 500 is a little north of what I'd like. That always raised the specter of a dry slot but it will due for now.

Here's the soundings for DCA at 15Z

Date: 39 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 29 OCT 11 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1012 56 1.2 0.6 96 0.6 0.9 357 11 273.4 274.1 273.5 284.1 3.94 1 1000 148 0.4 2 16 273.6 2 950 559 -0.3 -0.4 100 0.0 -0.4 28 34 276.8 277.5 275.4 287.6 3.91 3 900 991 -1.0 -1.2 99 0.2 -1.1 57 32 280.5 281.1 277.3 291.3 3.89 4 850 1446 -2.6 -2.9 98 0.3 -2.7 71 20 283.4 284.0 278.4 293.6 3.62 5 800 1925 -4.2 -4.6 97 0.4 -4.4 98 22 286.7 287.3 279.7 296.5 3.39 6 750 2435 -3.6 -3.9 98 0.3 -3.7 145 29 292.6 293.3 283.0 303.9 3.82 7 700 2980 -4.4 -4.7 98 0.2 -4.6 170 39 297.6 298.3 285.0 309.1 3.86 8 650 3562 -6.2 -6.5 97 0.4 -6.3 191 47 302.0 302.7 286.4 313.0 3.61 9 600 4185 -9.6 -10.3 95 0.7 -9.9 207 50 305.0 305.5 286.8 314.0 2.90 10 550 4851 -14.0 -15.3 90 1.2 -14.4 213 57 307.5 307.8 286.8 314.2 2.12 11 500 5567 -19.3 -21.1 86 1.8 -19.7 213 62 309.5 309.8 286.8 314.2 1.43 12 450 6341 -25.7 -28.2 80 2.5 -26.1 217 67 310.9 311.1 286.6 313.7 0.84 13 400 7183 -31.6 -34.4 76 2.8 -31.9 211 79 314.0 314.1 287.3 315.8 0.52 14 350 8116 -37.5 -40.6 73 3.1 -37.8 203 93 318.2 318.2 288.5 319.3 0.32 15 300 9159 -45.8 -51.9 51 6.0 -46.1 207 104 320.7 320.8 289.1 321.2 0.11 16 250 10354 -51.9 218 113 328.9 17 200 11788 -54.3 226 129 346.7 18 150 13624 -54.8 233 95 375.6 19 100 16175 -59.1 239 61 413.5 TRP 0 WND 0

and 18Z.......surface temp drops to around 33 degrees.

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 18Z SAT 29 OCT 11 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1010 54 0.5 0.4 99 0.2 0.5 334 14 272.9 273.6 273.1 283.4 3.89 1 1000 135 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.2 343 20 273.3 274.0 273.3 283.8 3.86 2 950 545 -1.4 -1.4 100 0.0 -1.4 6 38 275.8 276.4 274.4 285.7 3.63 3 900 975 -2.1 -2.2 100 0.0 -2.1 30 34 279.3 279.9 276.3 289.4 3.62 4 850 1429 -3.3 -3.6 98 0.3 -3.4 47 26 282.7 283.3 277.9 292.5 3.46 5 800 1907 -4.2 -4.6 98 0.3 -4.4 75 17 286.6 287.2 279.7 296.4 3.40 6 750 2415 -5.0 -5.4 97 0.4 -5.1 128 21 291.2 291.8 281.8 301.2 3.42 7 700 2957 -5.6 -5.7 99 0.1 -5.7 161 35 296.3 296.9 284.1 306.9 3.56 8 650 3538 -7.2 -7.3 100 0.0 -7.2 183 46 300.8 301.4 285.7 311.2 3.41 9 600 4158 -10.7 -10.8 99 0.1 -10.7 199 50 303.8 304.3 286.2 312.5 2.80 10 550 4821 -15.9 -16.9 92 1.0 -16.2 204 49 305.2 305.6 285.7 311.1 1.85 11 500 5531 -21.3 -23.4 84 2.0 -21.8 204 54 307.0 307.2 285.6 310.8 1.16 12 450 6298 -27.2 -30.9 71 3.7 -27.8 202 67 309.1 309.2 285.8 311.3 0.65 13 400 7137 -32.8 -40.9 44 8.1 -33.6 206 76 312.4 312.4 286.5 313.3 0.27 14 350 8065 -37.9 -54.4 16 16.4 -38.8 214 86 317.6 317.6 288.1 317.9 0.07 15 300 9113 -44.0 -64.4 9 20.4 -44.6 218 99 323.3 323.4 289.8 323.4 0.02 16 250 10315 -50.3 -69.1 9 18.8 -50.6 222 108 331.3 331.3 292.1 331.4 0.01 17 200 11760 -53.1 -74.2 6 21.1 -53.5 231 102 348.6 348.6 296.3 348.7 0.01 18 150 13606 -54.8 -80.5 3 25.7 -55.2 232 92 375.7 375.7 301.5 375.7 0.00 19 100 16163 -59.3 -86.8 2 27.5 -59.7 243 70 413.1 413.1 306.9 413.1 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0

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