TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it's gonna crash after 36 hrs, you watch(temps, that is) BEcause of the way that low is bombing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BEcause of the way that low is bombing? because of the way I think hope the Low will bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 because of the way I think hope the Low will bomb welp, too far inland this run better luck next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 welp, too far inland this run better luck next time I think GFS is too far west, NAM too far east. EURO to tell us whats up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think GFS is too far west, NAM too far east. EURO to tell us whats up? we'll see, but I ain't waiting up to find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is more amped.. more BL problems for BWI and 95 belt.. however.. looks like 95 areas still get in on backlash from CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ahh there's our t back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 we'll see, but I ain't waiting up to find out! true man, i feel like though hr 45 is nice from backlash CCB, if the low was a bit east, we'd be talking as 42 has a ton of precip, nam temps with GFS QPF and business man, when i get up at 6 ill find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 ahh there's our t back Trace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ahh there's our t back That thing switches over to some good snow on the backend... euro now... tell tale if the trend is NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Trace? yeah.. not that pretty of a run for our backyards at least the clown map may print out more tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd keep in mind the reliability (or lack thereof) the GFS getting this close to the event. I've generally found that under 48 it can be erratic. I'd start giving more weight to short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Why do you think that? Usually you find a middle road, when a decent mesoscale model like the NAM is east and the more broad global is west, you gotta look for that average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 yeah.. not that pretty of a run for our backyards at least the clown map may print out more tho Well, the only consolation would be that it's different than the NAM/SREFS and supposedly we're in the NAM's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd keep in mind the reliability (or lack thereof) the GFS getting this close to the event. I've generally found that under 48 it can be erratic. I'd start giving more weight to short range models. Must say I can't disagree with this post... models tend to do some erratic things 48 hours before a storm and then trend right back where they were... will be interesting to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good for the higher elevations in my county. I am not driving up Grambill road in bad weather though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Usually you find a middle road, when a decent mesoscale model like the NAM is east and the more broad global is west, you gotta look for that average. How do you know that the reason for the difference is due to synoptic/mesoscale features, rather than differences in large scale patterns over the NH? If it is the latter the GFS would handle that better, so I can't see why one necessarily applies over the other unless you can definitively determine the causation for the change. And the RGEM & SREF are west, so that puts the NAM out as an outlier. Though LWX does like the eastward track it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, the only consolation would be that it's different than the NAM/SREFS and supposedly we're in the NAM's wheelhouse. 500 is still pretty decent .. better than the nam almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 500 is still pretty decent .. better than the nam almost we should probably travel for this one....i'll see about getting a car with 4wd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 we should probably travel for this one....i'll see about getting a car with 4wd.... yes.. im planning on it but i have the dog so i need to be back same day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How do you know that the reason for the difference is due to synoptic/mesoscale features, rather than differences in large scale patterns over the NH? If it is the latter the GFS would handle that better, so I can't see why one necessarily applies over the other unless you can definitively determine the causation for the change. And the RGEM & SREF are west, so that puts the NAM out as an outlier. Though LWX does like the eastward track it seems. I'd agree the GFS is better with NH patterns and the broader scheme, but this has a huge involvement with some mesoscale features and some exact things involving the column, the 850 low/500 low tracks, where the freezing line is, a CCB etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think I like my location for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd agree the GFS is better with NH patterns and the broader scheme, but this has a huge involvement with some mesoscale features and some exact things involving the column, the 850 low/500 low tracks, where the freezing line is, a CCB etc. Ok, but you can't assume that is the reason for the rapid deepening on the GFS and that it is wrong since there are many aspects I don't think. And have you ever thought about giving the outlier less weight? The NAM has had a bias of letting energy escape on the front flank of EC storm troughs leading to an east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ok, but you can't assume that is the reason for the rapid deepening on the GFS and that it is wrong since there are many aspects I don't think. And have you ever thought about giving the outlier less weight? The NAM has had a bias of letting energy escape on the front flank of EC storm troughs. Oh I'm certainly not favoring the NAM right now none for the matter, I wanna see the Euro though as that'll give us all a beat on things and likely correctly analyze these pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z UKMET is a lot less wound up and colder then the GFS. More in line with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can't stay up for the Euro, not conditioned for this yet, I need more of a preseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z UKMET is a lot less wound up and colder then the GFS. More in line with the NAM Having problems accessing the UKMET data from the site I use, how is QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Having problems accessing the UKMET data from the site I use, how is QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 from a climo standpoint I like the GFS better than the NAM...plus it is a better model....doesn't mean it is right, but i would favor it over the NAM if I had to lean one way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There is a time in between these 2 but the UKMET skips that panel so use your imagination...either way its obviously colder and less amped then the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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