ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I like that vortmax diving se. The whole trough is almost shifted se just a tad on the SREF and NAM. As if the whole axis just slid se and brought the cold se too. It keeps the system slower too...we want the bulk of the action to be after 00z to maximize the accumulation potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Congrats Dobbs Ferry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It keeps the system slower too...we want the bulk of the action to be after 00z to maximize the accumulation potential. Remember the VAwxman thread about the EPO , damn this looks like a 94 midwinter system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 If this keeps up, we miss round 1, but might get more frozen with round 2...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 There goes my qpf.....lol Yeah but the colder solution will give you better ratios. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Congrats Dobbs Ferry? You and MPM are the dynamic duo of pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I love the strength of that shortwave in Indiana at 42h...this is going to go nuts at the end I think, kind of like 18z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Remember the VAwxman thread about the EPO , damn this looks like a 94 midwinter system. Vaguely--but I think you remember it better than I. Nice to be on the north side of the 850 before the precip begins.....congrats pike south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 At 18z Thursday it looks like its colder enough for snow here...but surfaces temps are high. Not much precip north of NH/MA border...but then theres that second part after 00z... Will, would 18z-21z be snow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The precip will explode at 48h...when that shortwave gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You and MPM are the dynamic duo of pessimism. Not a question of postive/negative, Pete. Merely responding to what I'm seeing on the new NAM, which is a drop-off on qpf in the areas that had been jackpotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 At 18z Thursday it looks like its colder enough for snow here...but surfaces temps are high. Not much precip north of NH/MA border...but then theres that second part after 00z... The still water saturated ground won't help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I love the strength of that shortwave in Indiana at 42h...this is going to go nuts at the end I think, kind of like 18z did. I like the 80-100 kt MLJ that is beginning to develop towards the base of the trough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Not a question of postive/negative, Pete. Merely responding to what I'm seeing on the new NAM, which is a drop-off on qpf in the areas that had been jackpotted. Just ride the SREF into the snowy horizon my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 If we are doing a shot per inch at Mt Socks then I am in......shot per inch here in Lowell.....kinda boring. Well I already do a shot for every special ed class I survive, so what's news? Congrats Dobbs Ferry? It is actually a close call here for Dobbs Ferry straddling the 540 line on the 0z NAM. I still think the NAM is going to shift north a little bit to come in line with the ECM, and the dynamics are probably overdone. Not a bad sign though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 There is a nice burst at the end, but def a shift south of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Not a question of postive/negative, Pete. Merely responding to what I'm seeing on the new NAM, which is a drop-off on qpf in the areas that had been jackpotted. Your fine, You may have an increase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 48hr is better...but 51hr should be the best. 48 hours from now we should be rock'n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 WOW edit: at how the temps crash to the coast at hour 48 and 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Vaguely--but I think you remember it better than I. Nice to be on the north side of the 850 before the precip begins.....congrats pike south? He said...... This is a classic example of how the Pacific pattern can trump the SE ridge in many areas, outside of the immediate Southeast. A strong ridge in the EPO position with a vortex in eastern Canada and a general positive tilt trough back into the Southwest is ideal for this, as it builds very high pressures over Canada, and these highs push low level cold underneath the ridging aloft (northerly flow in the low levels, but southwesterly aloft). So you have to obviously look at much more than the 500 mb pattern, and as always, watch your source regions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 There goes any snow for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I am upping my forecast for my area to 1-2".. from a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 He said...... This is a classic example of how the Pacific pattern can trump the SE ridge in many areas, outside of the immediate Southeast. A strong ridge in the EPO position with a vortex in eastern Canada and a general positive tilt trough back into the Southwest is ideal for this, as it builds very high pressures over Canada, and these highs push low level cold underneath the ridging aloft (northerly flow in the low levels, but southwesterly aloft). So you have to obviously look at much more than the 500 mb pattern, and as always, watch your source regions! Yup--i'm remembering it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 WOW edit: at how the temps crash to the coast at hour 48 and 51 Yeah...we could pick up a nice inch or 2 on the grass from 9pm to 12am on Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Not a question of postive/negative, Pete. Merely responding to what I'm seeing on the new NAM, which is a drop-off on qpf in the areas that had been jackpotted. Yeah yeah, when will you learn. This is GC.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It's a treat to see the board lit up for potential accumulating snow in Oct. but honestly most of us (maybe not Pete) will be thrilled just to see a coating at this time of year. I know I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Well, that was even more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 There goes any snow for NNE I started writing it off after 12z with the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Eastern areas could really rock...some pretty nice VV's across parts of southern NH and NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It's a treat to see the board lit up for potential accumulating snow in Oct. but honestly most of us (maybe not Pete) will be thrilled just to see a coating at this time of year. I know I will. I'm psyched to have a legit threat on the table. I'm not sure thrilled for a coating would be a good description for me but the first flakes of a new season are always exciting and reason enough to celebrate and pay homage to Ullr. Most benevolent Ullr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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