CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 As long as your far enough inland to avoid marine taint in the boundary layer the Euro is a snow bomb. That's a foot right down to the valley floors probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 00z Euro wasn't great either. The problem has been for most areas outside of areas that can reasonably expect snow in late October (near 1500 or 2kft in the Berks or srn Greens) is that we're relying on an overrunning event and an open wave with enough lingering frontogenesis and a burst of QG forcing to do the trick. If the low was closing off underneath us and we were talking about a burst of northerly ageostrophic 25 knots in the boundary layer I'd be a lot more excited. Instead as usual we have the NAM developing too much vertical motion and cooling things too fast. So, yeah, Socks and adjacent northern ORH county could get a couple inches of slop but in the grand scheme of things it's not such a rare event. 2 or 3" in Mt Tolland and into the valleys around CT and Mass would be something much more unusual and exciting. That frontogenesis band would produce I think. I think the problem is that the euro is just too far north with it. South of that good frontogenesis area will probably be some light echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Total total nudity..frontal, backal and sidewaysal views.. Just rawness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That frontogenesis band would produce I think. I think the problem is that the euro is just too far north with it. South of that good frontogenesis area will probably be some light echoes. Oh yeah no doubt you'd get a band... for this time of year I'd want to see a megaband NW of a cranking mid level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Starting to think the Euro might be the odd model out here and bow to the others in the end. Of course the last time I said something like that (sometime last winter) the Euro was the only correct model in the end. Lol, its going to have another bomb for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Will, 1-3" seems like a conservative call for Rindge/Monadnocks given that most models print out close to 1" QPF, with the majority falling as snow here. Are you expecting the storm to be warmer like the 12z NAM where some of the initial overrunning is lost to rain, or are you just doubting the intensity of the precipitation without a closed H7/H85 low for the entirely of the storm? The 12z NAM did close off the 850mb vort off the coast of New England, so maybe it's on to something about more of a CCB with moisture wrapping back into the cold air? I was talking about this in my meteorology workshop, kids are very excited. I said 2-4" would be a decent guess for campus...we're often a little colder than downtown Rindge. My rule of thumb is to always play down anything in before November. Better to be pleasantly surprised by the rarity than disappointed than the climatologically likely. The Euro type scenario is exactly why I wouldn't forecast more than 1-3" right now for northern hills/GC...and more than an inch here. Obviously it could come in a shade colder before we get to this event,. but there's a lot of ways that we won't see that much from this system...the Euro solution is one of them. I've been sticking with 3" here. Wow... easy foot for BDL lol Maybe I should jinx it by moving the snowblower from the shed to the end of the driveway and to put my yard markers out so the plows know where the road is. SPeaking of roads, they're finally getting around to repairing the paved section of Patten Hill road that washed out in Irene. Have no idea when they'll tackle the unpaved areas. Makes for a fun drive regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I want kevin barking like a dog for the euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Heads off ENE after it crosses to the NW of the benchmark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sounds like the Euro op nodded towds the 00 Euro ens which were a bit SE of the op right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The wunderground Euro snow maps should be obscenely weenie-ish when they come out in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sounds like the Euro op nodded towds the 00 Euro ens which were a bit SE of the op right? It has slowly trended se a bit which is good. It still pulls a 12/26/10 and curls up to just east of NJ before going east. Basically it moves due north along a pseudo cstl front before starting to occlude and move ene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Starting to think the Euro might be the odd model out here and bow to the others in the end. Of course the last time I said something like that (sometime last winter) the Euro was the only correct model in the end. Its been trending ENE each run, A couple of days ago it was NE thru the Eastern Gulf Of Maine, Now its East of Southern Nova Scotia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The wunderground Euro snow maps should be obscenely weenie-ish when they come out in a bit. How delayed are they? Half an hour? Our network takes so long to pull up any graphics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 How delayed are they? Half an hour? Our network takes so long to pull up any graphics... I think about 15 minutes...they are out to 66 hours right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It has slowly trended se a bit which is good. It still pulls a 12/26/10 and curls up to just east of NJ before going east. Basically it moves due north along a pseudo cstl front before starting to occlude and move ene. Let's hope it stops there...4 more days and 7 more euro runs is a long time for alot of bad trends to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 In terms of handling Rina... the Euro probably has the right idea... much more so than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Can someone link to the Euro snow maps? Let's hope it stops there...4 more days and 7 more euro runs is a long time for alot of bad trends to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It's already too far east for me to get much probably... So I'm focusing in scoring a few inches from #1. Its been trending ENE each run, A couple of days ago it was NE thru the Eastern Gulf Of Maine, Now its East of Southern Nova Scotia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Man I'd trade any garbage from the first event to get that Euro solution to verify. That would be just amazing...its like an early December snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Man I'd trade any garbage from the first event to get that Euro solution to verify. That would be just amazing...its like an early December snow bomb. With a remarkably chilly airmass at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I want kevin barking like a dog for the euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 So I am going to interpulate without a "how much in my backyard question". In the Plymouth area of NH 2-4" for the hills storm 1 and 3-6" for storm 2 according to the Euro????. I really like trends and the ENE trend on the Euro may not bode well for areas up here. I'm interested but not bullish on storm 2 as the GFS has it way OTS and the Euro has this ENE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 With a remarkably chilly airmass at 850. Yeah its like you said earlier...everyone would get bombed away from the coast where the marine taint can be avoided. Even BDL gets crushed in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro is perfect for many and even flips the coast over to snow when winds go ageostrophic Tippy style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah its like you said earlier...everyone would get bombed away from the coast where the marine taint can be avoided. Even BDL gets crushed in a setup like this. Yeah which is shocking. To see an all snow model solution for 10/29 for the CT River Valley is bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It's already too far east for me to get much probably... So I'm focusing in scoring a few inches from #1. As discussed earlier, Another 2 days and storm 2 will be out with the GFS....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hoping ski country gets an early season, massive base boost. It isn't ridiculously early for interior SNE. I remember I think in 1987 when our football game had to be called off in early November due to snow. I think that was around the 11th. I could have sworn the year before we had a decent early November snow too. 1" plus snows in boston are incredibly rare in October per history http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bossnw.shtml But, we are talking a few days from November. Interesting, hope you guys get an early snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hoping ski country gets an early season, massive base boost. It isn't ridiculously early for interior SNE. I remember I think in 1987 when our football game had to be called off in early November due to snow. I think that was around the 11th. I could have sworn the year before we had a decent early November snow too. 1" plus snows in boston are incredibly rare in October per history http://www.erh.noaa....te/bossnw.shtml But, we are talking a few days from November. Interesting, hope you guys get an early snow. Yeah was just looking at the 11/11/87 storm. Noreaster that brought decent snows after starting as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 There is Kevin's massive damage storm right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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