Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I wouldn’t give up on the “2nd storm” idea … I realize that the GFS has pretty much abandoned the idea from 00z and 06z, but this 12z run came slightly back with it in the 500mb analysis. The thing is, the Euro has a stronger southern stream component/phase potential here; the GFS’ not having that could very well boil down to its inferior initialization schemes. The 00z Euro was at D5…it’s right on the cusp where its boast-able accuracy get very high. The run coming up here straight away (12z) is a kind of bewitching run – if the event is still on the table on this Euro run, I would suspect that the GFS will play catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I wouldn’t give up on the “2nd storm” idea … I realize that the GFS has pretty much abandoned the idea from 00z and 06z, but this 12z run came slightly back with it in the 500mb analysis. The thing is, the Euro has a stronger southern stream component/phase potential here; the GFS’ not having that could very well boil down to its inferior initialization schemes. The 00z Euro was at D5…it’s right on the cusp where its boast-able accuracy get very high. The run coming up here straight away (12z) is a kind of bewitching run – if the event is still on the table on this Euro run, I would suspect that the GFS will play catch-up. Agree, GFS showing its bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Agree, GFS showing its bias? Ukie and ggem lost the storm now also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 November 6-7! La la la lock it up We should create a separate thread for this...and I remember Tip mentioning the possibility of a snowstorm the first week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I wouldn’t give up on the “2nd storm” idea … I realize that the GFS has pretty much abandoned the idea from 00z and 06z, but this 12z run came slightly back with it in the 500mb analysis. The thing is, the Euro has a stronger southern stream component/phase potential here; the GFS’ not having that could very well boil down to its inferior initialization schemes. The 00z Euro was at D5…it’s right on the cusp where its boast-able accuracy get very high. The run coming up here straight away (12z) is a kind of bewitching run – if the event is still on the table on this Euro run, I would suspect that the GFS will play catch-up. Loosely translated: "The 12z Euro run is the biggest run of our lives". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Rather active pattern over the next 8 days or so. Perhaps another storm on 11/1 but that seems to be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ukie and ggem lost the storm now also. ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Loosely translated: "The 12z Euro run is the biggest run of our lives". until 0z yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Rather active pattern over the next 8 days or so. Perhaps another storm on 11/1 but that seems to be warmer. Clipper/redeveloper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Loosely translated: "The 12z Euro run is the biggest run of our lives". EC has had a tendency to overdevelop and phase systems so far this fall. Looks suspect to me presently think 1st storm has better chances for snow than does the weekend one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think my call would probably be 1-3" for SW NH, N ORH county, GC with perhaps some lollies to 4"+...for MBY I'd probably go an inch. Perhaps a coating for NE MA/SE NH coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Can anyone talk about the 12z GEM...i'm terrible at reading those B&W panels, but it looks very juiced up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think my call would probably be 1-3" for SW NH, N ORH county, GC with perhaps some lollies to 4"+...for MBY I'd probably go an inch. Perhaps a coating for NE MA/SE NH coastal plain. Going to Winter Hill?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ukie is very cold. Can't see 54 and 66 hours, but based on 60 hours, that would be a big hit for most of MA away from the coast. Even Kevin would get a couple inches. What are your thought now as far as NE CT? At least a solid coating..with potential for 1-2 if things happen like the NAM/Ukie show> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think my call would probably be 1-3" for SW NH, N ORH county, GC with perhaps some lollies to 4"+...for MBY I'd probably go an inch. Perhaps a coating for NE MA/SE NH coastal plain. I wonder of those areas like Groton/Peperell area can sneak in a surprise inch or so there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 EC has had a tendency to overdevelop and phase systems so far this fall. Looks suspect to me presently think 1st storm has better chances for snow than does the weekend one. Well you also had this as a wound up raging soueaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Going to Winter Hill?? Oh def...an extra 100 feet will help. I should probably go to my aunt and uncles in Princeton though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What are your thought now as far as NE CT? At least a solid coating..with potential for 1-2 if things happen like the NAM/Ukie show> I wouldn't forecast >1" there at this point. It should def snow at the end though. The problem is the better fronto/deformation will be up in MA/NH I think as the low exits. But if we see it a little juicier at the end, and perhaps a touch south, then it could end up being a 1-2" deal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Can anyone talk about the 12z GEM...i'm terrible at reading those B&W panels, but it looks very juiced up OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I wonder of those areas like Groton/Peperell area can sneak in a surprise inch or so there as well. Yeah their latitude could def help them there...they have like 250-300 feet of elevation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 ouch GFS ftw?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I thought the GFS came in snowier here than previous runs. That was encouraging. EC has had a tendency to overdevelop and phase systems so far this fall. Looks suspect to me presently think 1st storm has better chances for snow than does the weekend one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The Canadian is so unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 OTS He's not talking about the pipe dream weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well you also had this as a wound up raging soueaster Yes I did but I also said at "this point in time" translates I don't la la lock things up 7 days out like you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 OTS for Thursday it's 1"+ for most of SNE, most of it looks like liquid from pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Should we start another thread for Connecticut school closings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 We'll have to work on Kevin's coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12z euro is pretty much a tell tale sign of what the weekend storm is gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS ftw?? I said yesterday, I'd rather have my eggs in storm 1's basket, The Euro pretty much by itself with storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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