Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 But does ENSO contribute even a little to our weather? Just dropping it entirely seems hasty Nobody dropped it NOAA stated that the more important influence is AO state in NE. Perhaps a ground breaking national media release. Never seen it before. There are multiple teleconnections, my opinion is the dominating entity is AO state for NE. Papers have shown it. Its about time the media started to understand NE has more than just ENSO conditions to consider when it comes to what our winter will be like. Think about it, all news stories about upcoming seasons for as far as I can remember discuss one thing, ENSO state. I am talking mainstream, not our little world. Groundbreaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Nobody dropped it NOAA stated that the more important influence is AO state in NE. Perhaps a ground breaking national media release. Never seen it before. There are multiple teleconnections, my opinion is the dominating entity is AO state for NE. Papers have shown it. Its about time the media started to understand NE has more than just ENSO conditions to consider when it comes to what our winter will be like. Think about it, all news stories about upcoming seasons for as far as I can remember discuss one thing, ENSO state. I am talking mainstream, not our little world. Groundbreaking. I see... Mainstream media might not care too much though. Just reading a little weather blurb in this month's Ski Magazine that was talking about La Nina and how the AO might be a bit more critical... rather watered down of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Nobody dropped it NOAA stated that the more important influence is AO state in NE. Perhaps a ground breaking national media release. Never seen it before. There are multiple teleconnections, my opinion is the dominating entity is AO state for NE. Papers have shown it. Its about time the media started to understand NE has more than just ENSO conditions to consider when it comes to what our winter will be like. Think about it, all news stories about upcoming seasons for as far as I can remember discuss one thing, ENSO state. I am talking mainstream, not our little world. Groundbreaking. I understand what you meant fwiw - and agree. I have read many seasonal outlooks that were - imho - too ENSO dependent. In fact, not considering the polarward indices at all, to which I have voiced concern ever since joining these public weather-related forums. That said, let's call it what it is and move on... ************************************************************************************************************ Fwiw, the 18z GFS has a lot of cold thickness pooling in Canada now, with a couple of clear chances at snow for a minimum of the els, and possibly lower too. 12z had plenty of cold just over the border, too. The Euo I think is going to collapse SE with the D7 system when it gets to that D5 accuracy boundary it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 <b></b>i was referring to the never ending national spotlght on ENSO with little or no discussion of the AO. The fact NOAA even mentioned it in a national press release is huge.<b></b><b></b><b></b><b></b>I'll bet a majority of the educated public have heard of El Nnno/La Nina, but less than 0.1% have heard of AO...even here (New England... not AmWx) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 What do the latest euro ensembles show for early november? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 What do the latest euro ensembles show for early november? They seem to have a little bit of moderation in the first few days of November after the late Oct cold snap, then potentially a colder period after that...but they've been a bit inconsistent with how much PNA ridging there could be. Today's 12z wasn't as much as the previous 2 or 3 runs. I don't see anything overwhelming right now. The Aleutian ridge looks pretty flat still and the Euro ens even want to get some lower heights over there at times which is not typical in a Nina so they likely wouldn't last. It doesn't seem like we will have any big pattern locking in yet for the first half of November...probably some transient shots of cold and milder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 They seem to have a little bit of moderation in the first few days of November after the late Oct cold snap, then potentially a colder period after that...but they've been a bit inconsistent with how much PNA ridging there could be. Today's 12z wasn't as much as the previous 2 or 3 runs. I don't see anything overwhelming right now. The Aleutian ridge looks pretty flat still and the Euro ens even want to get some lower heights over there at times which is not typical in a Nina so they likely wouldn't last. It doesn't seem like we will have any big pattern locking in yet for the first half of November...probably some transient shots of cold and milder weather. Yeah, the flow at h5 is essentially zonal on the 12z Euro ensembles for Day 9 and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 They seem to have a little bit of moderation in the first few days of November after the late Oct cold snap, then potentially a colder period after that...but they've been a bit inconsistent with how much PNA ridging there could be. Today's 12z wasn't as much as the previous 2 or 3 runs. I don't see anything overwhelming right now. The Aleutian ridge looks pretty flat still and the Euro ens even want to get some lower heights over there at times which is not typical in a Nina so they likely wouldn't last. It doesn't seem like we will have any big pattern locking in yet for the first half of November...probably some transient shots of cold and milder weather. That blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 At least it looks like the potential is there for some areas to see their first flakes in the next 2 weeks. It might not necessarily be this week, but seems like some areas will have a shot over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 That blows Not sure why....the first half of November is still kind of in the "waste zone", especially for the cp......get things cranking after tday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Not sure why....the first half of November is still kind of in the "waste zone", especially for the cp......get things cranking after tday. Yeah we don't want to waste a good cold pattern in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yeah we don't want to waste a good cold pattern in early November. It's a little more favorable in the hills, but even there it's still a bit early, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles still have the moderation int he first few days of November...then a colder setup after that, but it does not look like a long term thing. We seem to be getting periods of transient ridging in the PNA ridging to be replaced by transient troughing. So no particular pattern can really be established for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles still have the moderation int he first few days of November...then a colder setup after that, but it does not look like a long term thing. We seem to be getting periods of transient ridging in the PNA ridging to be replaced by transient troughing. So no particular pattern can really be established for us. Step down has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles still have the moderation int he first few days of November...then a colder setup after that, but it does not look like a long term thing. We seem to be getting periods of transient ridging in the PNA ridging to be replaced by transient troughing. So no particular pattern can really be established for us. I think that sometime after November 15-20th, we will start to see some sustained, favorable blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Looks like we still moderate next week before cooling down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Looks like we still moderate next week before cooling down again. You can see the reload coming on the day 10 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It looks like later in the 1st week of November and into the second week of November, we may turn milder. -PNA and a more +NAO will probably promote a milder regime across the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It looks like later in the 1st week of November and into the second week of November, we may turn milder. -PNA and a more +NAO will probably promote a milder regime across the eastern US. Do the euro ensembles show this as well or to a lesser extent than the GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 At least it looks like the potential is there for some areas to see their first flakes in the next 2 weeks. It might not necessarily be this week, but seems like some areas will have a shot over the next 2 weeks. LOL!! Text book understatement!! But nonetheless, the discussion in this thread was/is very good leading up to the result of this pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Do the euro ensembles show this as well or to a lesser extent than the GFS ensembles? Yeah it's a -PNA and a +NAO promoting more zonal flow with some se ridging. Looks very quiet and somewhat mild over the next 2 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Yeah it's a -PNA and a +NAO promoting more zonal flow with some se ridging. Looks very quiet and somewhat mild over the next 2 weeks or so. great.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 All downhill from here. This could easily be the biggest storm we see this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Good news is that the weeklies try to bring back some blocking at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 All downhill from here. This could easily be the biggest storm we see this winter Weenies worst nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 All downhill from here. This could easily be the biggest storm we see this winter Sam..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Pete/Mike/Nates/Dave's/Maybe Will's best snowstorm, sure. Everyone else....I hope not. That would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 That storm sure is precariously close to New England on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Looks like we may have the MJO try to swing around to phase 7 or 8 in he next couple of weeks. Also, the subsurface anomalies have slowed a bit fwiw and even got pushed baclkeast a bit, though that may also change going forward. Still nice to keep this more east of the dateline for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Looks like we may have the MJO try to swing around to phase 7 or 8 in he next couple of weeks. Also, the subsurface anomalies have slowed a bit fwiw and even got pushed baclkeast a bit, though that may also change going forward. Still nice to keep this more east of the dateline for now. The MJO is currently in Phase 3 and should enter Phase 4 through this week which is favorable for La Nina development but may briefly enter Phase 5/6 before re curving and staying in the "COD" but I don't expect the MJO to enter Phase 7 but 8 is possible. Latest Weeklies showed significant warming in Nino region 1+2 while the other three cooled nicely. GWO remains in Phase 3 along with a nice -GLAAM meaning the Atmosphere is now in La Nina state which is the main culprit for the significant drop in Tropospheric temperatures globally. Either way I expect some cooling this week with a nice burst of Trade Winds coming, with a slow down next week but I still expect a Weak-Mod. Nina for the Winter. As for the teleconnection indices I expect the PNA to remain negative through Mid Month with a neutral NAO Phase (at this point I dont see any big drop off through much of November) with a Positive-neutral AO phase. Based on my calculations and observations we should develop a nice but weak blocking pattern around Nov 15th-20th centered across Central Greenland with the PNA trying to go back closer to neutral with a slightly negative AO and -EPO developing. Until then I dont see any major cold outbreaks but based upon the Teleconnections and the GLAAM/MJO I think we may see a decent Winter storm in the last 5-10 days of November but track remains to be unseen. SE Ridge stays active through much of November IMO. With that being said the snow cover should slowly grow across Canada through the next 2-3 weeks but it should stay relatively close to Climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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