ACFD FIREMAN Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Is anyone else disappointed that Lee cancelled the cool-down for the Mid-Atl? I kinda sorta really am...Now it seems any such cool down will be postponed for 15 days (like always)..I'm just utterly tired of this pattern. I must say, if summer heat was a person..Id be in prison for murder. The next few days are going to be 10-15 degrees below climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The next few days are going to be 10-15 degrees below climo. What on earth are you talking about? Non-mountain areas have average highs in the low/mid 80s with lows in the low/mid 60s this time of year. Highs may be 5-10+ degrees below average if the rain can persist, but lows should be in the mid to upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 What on earth are you talking about? Non-mountain areas have average highs in the low/mid 80s with lows in the low/mid 60s this time of year. Highs may be 5-10 degrees below average if the rain can persist, but lows should be in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow's NWS grids have 68 to 70 for a high tomorrow around the region....so it that verifies 10 to 15 below climo is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Pouring up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Tomorrow's NWS grids have 68 to 70 for a high tomorrow around the region....so it that verifies 10 to 15 below climo is spot on. For ONE day, not "the next few" as was in the OP, and only on the high. Forgive me, but I also look at the average temp. vs just the high (which is more telling, but was probably not the original point of argument). Lows should be near normal to slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Lee bust. Not much here other than one very brief shower this morning. I know it is supposed to be coming so I'm just glad I got the grass cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 For ONE day, not "the next few" as was in the OP, and only on the high. Forgive me, but I also look at the average temp. vs just the high (which is more telling, but was probably not the original point of argument). Lows should be near normal to slightly above normal. Yes, I was referring to HIGHS only. Through THUR the highs are FORECASTED to be 10-15 degrees below the climo of 83. Tuesday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 67. North wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tuesday Night: Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 61. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 72. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The rain started here about 24 hours ago and has been almost non-stop since...currently at 1.89". It's been dry for while so the creeks are only about 1/4 full at the moment, but that could change looking at the train of moisture clear back to the gulf coming this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Yes, I was referring to HIGHS only. Through THUR the highs are FORECASTED to be 10-15 degrees below the climo of 83. Well then, I stand corrected (for the western/central areas, at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Just poured here a bit ago and now pouring again. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 18Z NAM makes Katia look a heck of a lot more ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Had a brief very heavy shower. Looks like another good band coming into DC and heading my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Getting soaked here. Half-inch in the past hour. Winds have picked up too. NNW 16 mph G22. Over 1.00" for the event with much more to come. 68 degrees. High was 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 18Z NAM...Katia... lol You do realize that this is the same model that brought Lee back into the west-central Gulf when literally every other model was bringing it NE? Needless to say, it didn't verify. No need to watch NAM for tropics, especially after 36-48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymdwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 just got a good heavy shower 1.10 inches in about a half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Two bouts of rain today in the burg...total so far of .34....would be neat if the big numbers verify but more times than not they don't so I would say 2-4" would be more realistic...if not high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'm under a tornado watch now. As for rain, it's been off and on all day, sometimes quite heavy. Don't have an amount at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 lol You do realize that this is the same model that brought Lee back into the west-central Gulf when literally every other model was bringing it NE? Needless to say, it didn't verify. No need to watch NAM for tropics, especially after 36-48hr. meh, I said a heck of a lot more ominous, not that it showed a hit I agree it's unlikely to come as close as 18z NAM suggests, but never say never when it comes to tropical systems >2 days out and just because a model sux w/one storm doesn't mean it can't score a coup on the next that being said, I agree it's likely a miss, which will suit me just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 meh, I said a heck of a lot more ominous, not that it showed a hit I agree it's unlikely to come as close as 18z NAM suggests, but never say never when it comes to tropical systems >2 days out and just because a model sux w/one storm doesn't mean it can't score a coup on the next that being said, I agree it's likely a miss, which will suit me just fine Well offshore =/= ominous Lee was just the latest example... NAM sucks with tropics nearly all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Had a brief very heavy shower. Looks like another good band coming into DC and heading my way. Measured 0.37" IMBY in E Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 We should probably try to put all obs for the next few days in the Lee thread. Putting some here and some there will be annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 We should probably try to put all obs for the next few days in the Lee thread. Putting some here and some there will be annoying. yes boss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 looks liek the models are bouncing back north with nate.. tho the euro is still way south. not sure it looks super favorable still to get it up here but lee didnt either initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 yay nate http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110908/12/gfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 yay nate http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif nice.. blocking.. mecs+ http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110908/12/gfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 nice.. blocking.. mecs+ http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif 1024 H won't do it... need to be stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 12 GFS is teasing two big cold fronts next week and the following weekend, giving us lows in the 40s and even 30s in NY/NE. Lee wrecked that chance with this front...will Nate wreck the next chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 nice.. blocking.. mecs+ http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif Christ Almighty. Just what we need. <cue mitchnick saying how we need this in January> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Euro isnt budging on Nate. Microcane right into Mexico well south of TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Even though a chunk of the wetness we've experienced lately has been tropical in nature...the pattern is a wet one overall and it's been that way since August. Part of me is thinking we might be stuck in a wet pattern for a while if it continues through the Autumn months...IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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