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Katia tracking and discussion thread


Damage In Tolland

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yeah i certainly wouldn't be calling for an east coast LF right now but would bet we'll see some crazy model runs. the timing and strength of each of these features is going to be a mess.

try looping through some of the individual gfs ensemble members. there's plenty of entertainment there, if the op didn't provide enough on its own.

Well as we saw with Irene from hitting the gulf to hitting NE, the upper level features are def not set in stone yet.. it could get interesting at the path will change.. whether its further out to sea or slamming into the EC..

here we go again

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Well as we saw with Irene from hitting the gulf to hitting NE, the upper level features are def not set in stone yet.. it could get interesting at the path will change.. whether its further out to sea or slamming into the EC..

here we go again

that's one thing they showed though - actual landfall.

katia probably is just going to be a lot of model tease. that's my hunch right now. won't stop me from watching because these things are challenging and fun. but in recent memory i'd favor something like Bill in 09.

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that's one thing they showed though - actual landfall.

katia probably is just going to be a lot of model tease. that's my hunch right now. won't stop me from watching because these things are challenging and fun. but in recent memory i'd favor something like Bill in 09.

Yea if there's a chance then ill be watching, although not as intensely as Irene..yet...

You never know with any of these recurving storms if one will go against the grain/consensus

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Maybe if we get some sort of phasing well offshore..with a strong high to the NW we can get some sort of damaging wind storm out of the whole deal. I remember something like that happening about 8-10 yrs ago one September. A sunny day with a cane passing well OTS wih strong NW winds gusting over 60

9/11/02...remember it well--underforecast too--easily 60+ gusts...

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I agree with Phil. We'll probably have some pure porn weenie solutions in the next few days. The key to watch is whatever develops in the Gulf, and the potential deep ULL that tries to send it north or at the very least, cause a front to stall nearby SNE. I think it may be a fish storm too, but I don't think that is clear cut right now.

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9/11/02...remember it well--underforecast too--easily 60+ gusts...

Yeah i just recall the date..but i knew it was about 10 yrs ago. i remember it just ripped all day. I was at my old house in town and we lost at least a tree that day.

I think we'll at least see something like that again here over the next 10 days..maybe worse

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The 12Z NOGAPS brings Katia about 300-400 miles east of Miami next Wednesday evening, which means its forward speed has to slow down substantially. It looks ready to start recurving, but it is already at 70W and still moving WNW, so it will take a sharp turn for it to avoid any effects on the EC. But it's the NOGAPS, so take it fwiw. Also, it shows any GOM action just milling around and going nowhere. Incidentally, the 00Z NOGAPS had Katia well north and already recurving NNW before reaching 70W. This may yet get interesting.

https://www.fnmoc.na...au=000&set=Core

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I agree with Phil. We'll probably have some pure porn weenie solutions in the next few days. The key to watch is whatever develops in the Gulf, and the potential deep ULL that tries to send it north or at the very least, cause a front to stall nearby SNE. I think it may be a fish storm too, but I don't think that is clear cut right now.

yeah agree there. that's the big thing to watch outside of any direct tropical issue...what, if any, hydro issues we have down the road in the interior.

that sun/mon fropa - or any subsequent i guess - could be a concern if it doesn't blast through here. hopefully it just keeps on moving and doesn't get hung up. concern would be it passes the region then stalls SE of SNE then starts to creep back with some kind of tropical connection to it, be it from the GOM or SW Atlantic. too early to do much more than speculate but a legit concern, imo.

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yeah agree there. that's the big thing to watch outside of any direct tropical issue...what, if any, hydro issues we have down the road in the interior.

that sun/mon fropa - or any subsequent i guess - could be a concern if it doesn't blast through here. hopefully it just keeps on moving and doesn't get hung up. concern would be it passes the region then stalls SE of SNE then starts to creep back with some kind of tropical connection to it, be it from the GOM or SW Atlantic. too early to do much more than speculate but a legit concern, imo.

GFS continues with the heavy precip as the gulfow interacts with katia

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We can conclude that there's a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic, and since it's still a week and a half away from reaching the western Atlantic, we don't know where it's going.

Bingo, Seeing its over 2600 miles from Boston, Odds are not favorable for another New England hit

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From the NWS:

MODEL SOLNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RIDGING BREAKING DOWN ALOFT AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. SAT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH DIGS. THIS IS CAUSING MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN SOLNS NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL AFFECT THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS INTO MON NIGHT MAY BE TOO LONG...BUT TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES IN FROPA TIMING. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.

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