Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Great job Ryan, Phil coming in and verifying some things. Notice motion looks to cut the sound and ocean in NC, also notice the trough's influence will begin. Ryan or Phil, what forward speed are we talking about here?, What is the amount of time we see TS winds if you please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Part of the reason people think Gloria was a lot stronger than it was is because in 1985 the NHC would never have Irene as a cat 1 with that central pressure. it's also part of the reason people don't know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I do think unlike a lot of storms we will see persistent sustained strong TS winds in the 50-65 range over a good area with higher gusts. Thank you. That right there, is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah I agree. What's left of the core should mean some real gusty winds here. I'm expecting a lot of tree damage. Agree on the tree damage. This storm should be on par with Gloria at a minimum. Having the astronomically high tides as well as slow northward movement will only lengthen the time the storm is over us. Those 2 factors have me prepared for the worst. People should not be down-playing this at all. Make all your necessary preparations and be glad you did, even i this does not pan out. One way or another I am going to enjoy this. I actually have to head to Colchester this afternoon to pick up my family, My wife is on a plane back from Tampa right now heading to Philly. From there, their flight was cancelled, so they were going to try and drive back. I should be hearing from her shortly, once she gets to Philly. I hope to be home tonight before the rains really kick up and making driving difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Great job Ryan, Phil coming in and verifying some things. Notice motion looks to cut the sound and ocean in NC, also notice the trough's influence will begin. Ryan or Phil, what forward speed are we talking about here?, What is the amount of time we see TS winds if you please. Gloria had >30mph gusts for 5 hours on the CT shore. I could see 8-10 hours of that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Agree on the tree damage. This storm should be on par with Gloria at a minimum. Having the astronomically high tides as well as slow northward movement will only lengthen the time the storm is over us. Those 2 factors have me prepared for the worst. Yeah, agree Bob. Hurricanes typically become so lopsided in SNE it's either wind/surge or rain. This one will have all 3 particularly in my area which makes this a true multi-hazard storm in high impact on a scale we haven't seen since 1985. Hell, look at Fairfield County and NYC metro in the noreaster last March. They had 50 knot gusts off and on for 5 or 6 hours with bare trees and entire towns were paralyzed for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 this is amazing...CAT 1. on the old SS scale...this pressure would correspond to a CAT 3!! LOL. Awesome post Phil and one that I hope does not get overlooked. Pics of the Weenie Mobile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Gloria had >30mph gusts for 5 hours on the CT shore. I could see 8-10 hours of that here. Thank you, forward speed? 20 plus or less? You have done a fantastic job with your blog. Many people have wrote me and thanked me for pointing them to it. Thanks. We cancelled our major events tonight, hmmm 500 lobsters in our freezers....... Letting all out at 4 so they can prepare their homes, we have hearts, heard lots of stories where places despite Malloys order to stay off the roads after midnight forcing workers to be there or get written up. Anyway my bet is Misquamicut gets big overwash with major damage to roads and some homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thank you, forward speed? 20 plus or less? You have done a fantastic job with your blog. Many people have wrote me and thanked me for pointing them to it. Thanks. Thanks Ginx. Forward speed 20-25 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 FWIW, Weather Channel is reporting that there are reports of sustained winds of 100mph or even over. Also, JB said that they are reports of wind gusts over 117 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thankfully this storm is looking less and less impressive. Even so, as Ryan points out, excessive rains here in the Berkshires will be a serious situation. That coupled with what will undoubtedly be very strong winds is a recipe for an extended period of power loss. The streams and river here are already quite high especially for the time of year. The silver lining in this is that August will certainly go down as a cool, wet month here, AIT back in May. BOS: +1.8F BDL: +0.6F PVD +1.1F ORH: +0.9F Keep on dreaming, Pete. And NC reporting 115mph winds with tornadoes. Storm is pretty unimpressive, I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Time for looking at the models is over. What happens is what happens. And what is happening is Irene is over land in North Carolina and on radar she is moving further inland. So unless she starts to turn to the NE sometime soon then we can all say goodnight Irene..........just posting what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 OT, but watching my wifes' flight on FlightView and it has the plotted path around the outer bands of Irene up into Philly. Gotta love the toys we have at our fingertips these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 what influence will the trough have on the Storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Again...warm & wet. Even Mt Wash is +1.7 so far. But back to Irene... Well, perhaps with warmer than normal overnight lows factored in but the fact of the matter is it has only hit 80 2-3 times, we've had multiple days in the 60's for highs and the remainder of the highs this month have been in the 70's often below seasonal norms outlined by other posters here. It has certainly hasn't been the sizzlicious torch month many here called for. August, after Irene, will likely be up there with the wetttest Augusts on record. But, as you say, back to Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I want rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 weenie question, but is there any chance that the winds ever catch up to the pressure? I just don't get that part? as it transitions to ex-tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahero Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 going to sox game this afternoon, what chances of seen the whole game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 FWIW, Weather Channel is reporting that there are reports of sustained winds of 100mph or even over. Also, JB said that they are reports of wind gusts over 117 mph. JB was also forecasting 85 mph winds when he was talking to Sean Hannity the other day in DC and Baltimore. I've lost a lot of respect for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 JB was also forecasting 85 mph winds when he was talking to Sean Hannity the other day in DC and Baltimore. I've lost a lot of respect for him to be fair though, most did not see the weakening that steadily occured from Wed night on....but agree-this will be a big bust outside of rains for PHL, Balt, etc....no skyscraper windows blowing out in PHL or even NYC as JB was proclaiming the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 JB was also forecasting 85 mph winds when he was talking to Sean Hannity the other day in DC and Baltimore. I've lost a lot of respect for him You had respect? Part of the problem here is the NHC kept the storm's intensity at cat 3 for far too long. Understand why they did it for consistency but the problem is when you have to drop winds significantly before landfall to "catch up" you give off the impression the storm has fallen apart more rapidly than it really has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 HSE is gusting to 74 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What's up with this guys ego? BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi THE POWER SCALE I HAVE DEVELOPED IS BETTER AT DIAGNOSING THE TRUE NATURE OF THE STORM THAN SAFFIR-SIMPSON. Low pressure means something!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Pretty shocked to hear sustained winds were 100 mph earlier, despite the fact the winds are only 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It may be categorized as a Cat 1 but I'm betting nobody on LI sees sustained hurricane force at official reporting stations. That's just my opinion and it may well be wrong. (picked LI as I feel they were most likely to see the strongest winds...also don't think it happens over here either) I do think unlike a lot of storms we will see persistent sustained strong TS winds in the 50-65 range over a good area with higher gusts. Just made it to Falmouth, man it's tropical down here compared to interior. I agree, 50-60 sustained looks good along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 So can someone tell me what in the sam hell is wrong with with this storm right now? Looks fine. Hell, it looks better than it did a couple hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just made it to Falmouth, man it's tropical down here compared to interior. I agree, 50-60 sustained looks good along the coast. It just got really humid here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 So can someone tell me what in the sam hell is wrong with with this storm right now? Looks fine. Hell, it looks better than it did a couple hours ago. Were gonna get creamed with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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