friedmators Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That latest visible seems to show storms popping eastern side of circulation now over the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Winds S/G... Duck, NC - 58mph/79mph (Peak gust 79mph). Manteo, NC - 52mph/67mph (peak gust of 74mph). Oregon Inlet, NC - 54mph/78mph (Peak gust of 80mph). Hatteras, NC - 44mph/71mph (Peak gust of 88mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazish67 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Here is a surf cam in Beach Haven NJ for any interested. http://thesurfersview.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=50&Itemid=54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 For those interested, I have setup a streaming camera at www.kingsparkweather.com/wxsnowcam.php and also have a roof mounted camera facing NNE that puts up still images every minute. www.kingsparkweather.com/cams.php . The still cam runs sunup till sundown. The streaming camera will be up 24 hours as long as power holds out. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 COC has reached the coast and may push offshore just north of Corolla, NC... Edit: The COC has pushed offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's neat how the eye has become much better defined in the past few frames as this pushes off land. Waters are fairly warm so we'll see what this can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Larger shot at sunset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 TWC just showed a feed from Virginia Beach, things look to be getting pretty nasty there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's neat how the eye has become much better defined in the past few frames as this pushes off land. Waters are fairly warm so we'll see what this can do. Withe the pressure field so broad it's going to be hard IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The eye looks to be getting more organized now that it has left land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If you look at the IR and compare it to the radar, it seems like the mid-level center and low level center's are starting to decouple due to shear and land interaction. I expect further weakening in the next 24 hours, and remain pessimistic Irene will be able to make its second landfall as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just checked outages number up and down the coast. 1.15 million customers out atm NC/VA Duke 11,306 Progress 278,002 Dominion 773,552 MD/DC/DE Pepco (DC) 19,518 BGE 20,383 SMECO 24,545 Delarmva 16,542 NJ AC elec 14,633 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 irene hit richmond with a 71 mph gust at ric 360,000 out of power, trees down everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If you look at the IR and compare it to the radar, it seems like the mid-level center and low level center's are starting to decouple due to shear and land interaction. I expect further weakening in the next 24 hours, and remain pessimistic Irene will be able to make its second landfall as a hurricane. Good objective call in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Good objective call in my opinion. Indeed. For the folks that don't understand - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html It's almost like a top that spun off. Quick weakening is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Heavy convection forming with her over water per Dover Radar...eyelike structure as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 TCs almost always start to look like that as they gain latitude and start undergoing ET transition. Irene, as suggested by the forecast models, and noted by several posters on this board, may actually stay almost steady state in strength due to baroclinic processes. Up to 25 m/s winds (~60 mph), and gales over a wide area, it is still a big deal, even if it doesn't look like a classic TC in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anyone wishing for a monster storm please disregard this post. I have a question for the rest of you. I am sincerely curious, what do you tihnk of the strong kicker that seems to be rushing through Ohio and Indiana area toward the backside of Irene? Seems to me when I look at 00z positions of features on the models that this was prehaps underestimated or mis-timed. Perhaps the large circulation of Irene is pulling this in and amounting to her own end in that way? First, look at this loop and what is going on to the west of Irene very quickly now. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html Then watch this loop and note how the solid rain area on the west side in VA and NC is eroding to the east much faster than the center of Irene is moving away from the coast. Is it possible that she is about to get a big boot that is not exactly part of the plan? I humbly ask this question, and I am not trying to tell anybody anytihng. If you are hoping and praying for the big Cat 4, please skip over this and move on to the next page. http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php Kind of hard to doubt the models and high confidence tracks, but where is this going? Looks to me like the precip might be done in NC and much of VA soon....and just a remote shot that this is about to eject Irene out with a boot! Any professional thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anyone wishing for a monster storm please disregard this post. I have a question for the rest of you. I am sincerely curious, what do you tihnk of the strong kicker that seems to be rushing through Ohio and Indiana area toward the backside of Irene? Seems to me when I look at 00z positions of features on the models that this was prehaps underestimated or mis-timed. Perhaps the large circulation of Irene is pulling this in and amounting to her own end in that way? First, look at this loop and what is going on to the west of Irene very quickly now. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/radarse/radarloop.htm Then watch this loop and note how the solid rain area on the west side in VA and NC is eroding to the east much faster than the center of Irene is moving away from the coast. Is it possible that she is about to get a big boot that is not exactly part of the plan? I humbly ask this question, and I am not trying to tell anybody anytihng. If you are hoping and praying for the big Cat 4, please skip over this and move on to the next page. http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php Kind of hard to doubt the models and high confidence tracks, but where is this going? Looks to me like the precip might be done in NC and much of VA soon....and just a remote shot that this is about to eject Irene out with a boot! Any professional thoughts would be greatly appreciated. I had been saying I thought Irene would come in over LI more east of where many had expected but I abandoned that idea now about 12 hours ago thinking there is no way all the models could be wrong at this point. We'll just have to nowcast at this point, the center is moving NNE but it will have to job quite a bit to come in anywhere east of western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Bay bridge is reporting sustained 62 gusts to 80 at the time of closure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I had been saying I thought Irene would come in over LI more east of where many had expected but I abandoned that idea now about 12 hours ago thinking there is no way all the models could be wrong at this point. We'll just have to nowcast at this point, the center is moving NNE but it will have to job quite a bit to come in anywhere east of western LI. Agree with your farther east track from before, and your assessment here. And btw, my first link of Albany radar was incrorrect link, I meant to post the visible loop from NOAA of the eastern USA there, so I edited and fixed, but you might have to reload the page to see the correct link. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Holding steady for the time pressure wise, also developed a small but half opened eye. 000 URNT12 KNHC 272354 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 27/23:40:40Z B. 36 deg 38 min N 075 deg 44 min W C. 700 mb 2664 m D. 60 kt E. 125 deg 86 nm F. 208 deg 74 kt G. 123 deg 64 nm H. 951 mb I. 11 C / 3056 m J. 14 C / 3061 m K. 13 C / NA L. Open E-S M. C9 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 06 MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 23:23:10Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 From vortex: L. Eye Character: Open, Open E-S M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 9 nautical miles I have not seen recon report an eye for a long time until now.. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It's arguing against/mocking a strawman that doesn't exist. Somebody else trying to prove they're the coolest person in the room because they're predicting drastic weakening, or a track much further east than NHC. ahh so sorry, I was being facetious with that strawman that doesn't exist. Thought that'd be pretty obvious to everyone. And in fact this petty squabbling over noghingness is exactly what i was trying to avoid, and nobody is answering what I though was a solid question on the synoptic situation. But hey I do this for a living so I know better than to get my feelings hurt over the little stuff. So PLEASE if you have nothing to say about the meteorology of it, leave it alone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 TRACK POWER OUTAGES Virginia:http://www.dom.com/storm-center/dominion-electric-outage-map.jsp Philly: http://www.peco.com/outagemap https://www.firstenergycorp.com/outages/outages.do?state_code=PA https://selfserv.pplelectric.com/EUSelfServ/Outage/OutageMap.aspx NJ: https://www.firstenergycorp.com/outages/outages.do?state_code=NJ CT: http://www.cl-p.com/outage/OutageMap.aspx http://www.ctweather.com/power-outages.php?id=88&catid=23&link=http://www.uinet.com/wps/portal/uinettownoutages/map RI: http://www1.nationalgridus.com/narragansett/stormcenter/ MASS: http://www1.nationalgridus.com/masselectric/stormcenter/ http://www.wmeco.com/outage/outagemap.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 ahh so sorry, I was being facetious with that strawman that doesn't exist. Thought that'd be pretty obvious to everyone. And in fact this petty squabbling over noghingness is exactly what i was trying to avoid, and nobody is answering what I though was a solid question on the synoptic situation. But hey I do this for a living so I know better than to get my feelings hurt over the little stuff. So PLEASE if you have nothing to say about the meteorology of it, leave it alone! Dry air is going to be a major issue for Irene from this point forward. Just look at the dewpoints in central and western North Carolina, like in Charlotte. Around 59 or 60. That's very dry air being entrained into this thing now. I think that's one reason why the western edge of the rain shield is eroding so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 TRACK POWER OUTAGES Virginia:http://www.dom.com/storm-center/dominion-electric-outage-map.jsp Philly: http://www.peco.com/outagemap https://www.firstenergycorp.com/outages/outages.do?state_code=PA https://selfserv.pplelectric.com/EUSelfServ/Outage/OutageMap.aspx NJ: https://www.firstenergycorp.com/outages/outages.do?state_code=NJ CT: http://www.cl-p.com/outage/OutageMap.aspx http://www.ctweather.com/power-outages.php?id=88&catid=23&link=http://www.uinet.com/wps/portal/uinettownoutages/map RI: http://www1.nationalgridus.com/narragansett/stormcenter/ MASS: http://www1.nationalgridus.com/masselectric/stormcenter/ http://www.wmeco.com/outage/outagemap.aspx NYC/Westchester: http://apps.coned.com/weboutageinfo/stormcenter/default.aspx LI :http://www.lipower.org/stormcenter/outagemap.html Hudson Valley: http://wp1.coned.com/or_stormcenter/default.aspx http://stormcentral.cenhud.com/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Dry air is going to be a major issue for Irene from this point forward. Just look at the dewpoints in central and western North Carolina, like in Charlotte. Around 59 or 60. That's very dry air being entrained into this thing now. I think that's one reason why the western edge of the rain shield is eroding so quickly. subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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