Juliancolton Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 11 pm advisory kept it at 85 and 951 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Latest recon pass was E-W... Pressure is up to 952mb. Max FL wind on the east side was 91kts and the max on the west side was 67kts. Next mission takes off at 11:15PM EDT. URNT12 KNHC 270254 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 27/02:34:10Z B. 32 deg 32 min N 076 deg 52 min W C. 700 mb 2679 m D. 66 kt E. 086 deg 44 nm F. 171 deg 91 kt G. 087 deg 67 nm H. 952 mb I. 10 C / 3051 m J. 15 C / 3049 m K. 11 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 20 MAX FL WIND 108 KT SE QUAD 22:47:20Z DROPSONDE RELEASED NEAR MAX FL WIND INBOUND RECORDED 79 KTS AT SPLASH PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Southern quad seems to be filling in quite a bit on reflectivity from both Wilmington and Morehead City. The impact of the shear may have decreased at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Southern quad seems to be filling in quite a bit on reflectivity from both Wilmington and Morehead City. The impact of the shear may have decreased at the moment. Those are some nice looking bands to the SE of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 As posted in the other thread... Recon VDM plots from the last two missions, along with NHC tracks from the 8 and 11PM advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Unenhanced IR imagery suggests the NE jog on all other satellites is an exaggerated illusion. Still looks like a due NNE movement to me. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Those are some nice looking bands to the SE of the storm I would definitely say it is looks better on radar and satellite now that it did several hours ago. Eye is somewhat visible on IR again, with some quite cold tops on the east side of the eye. Now seeing some 40 dBZ in the northern part of the eyewall of KMHX, which is pretty impressive given how far away it still is and how much the radar's "beam" is having to go through before getting to the eye. As others have said, can't envision much strengthening at this point - but holding it seems to be holding its own for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tropical threads are littered with the graves of those who declared victory over a wobble. This thing has been consistently east of the NHC track for the last 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 east track will keep the "eye" over water a little longer. Aside from land friction, this could help Irene stay the same strength a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This thing has been consistently east of the NHC track for the last 24hrs. If by 24hrs you mean 6hrs then I agree completely...it was west of forecast all morning up to and including the 2pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This thing has been consistently east of the NHC track for the last 24hrs. No it hasn't, it was west just this morning. It's been wobbling on either side, now it's east. Nothing out of the ordinary, some people just fret over every wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Here this tracks the center nicely. The base reflectivity is like a weenie mood ring, it appears to be moving in whatever direction you want it to move in. It's actually pretty funny how weather radars are so prone to Hallucination, or maybe it's just the motion of the atmosphere that is so confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Shear has let up a little..I first noticed this a few hours ago when the upper cloud fragments slowed down going west to east over the SW Quad...also it doesn't seem as squashed on the SW side as it was 12-18 hours ago Shear maps form the universiry of WI confirm this only 10kts over the center and 5-10kts SE quad...there is more north 20kts but the lower shear hole has been moving north with the storm the past 6 hours dry air is the main issue...but it seems to be mixing some of that out in the core over the warm Gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Shear has let up a little..I first noticed this a few hours ago when the upper cloud fragments slowed down going west to east over the SW Quad...also it doesn't seem as squashed on the SW side as it was 12-18 hours ago Shear maps form the universiry of WI confirm this only 10kts over the center and 5-10kts SE quad...there is more north 20kts but the lower shear hole has been moving north with the storm the past 6 hours dry air is the main issue...but it seems to be mixing some of that out in the core over the warm Gulf stream I still think its pretty unlikely we see any appreciable increase in winds before landfall... maintaining 85 knots is certainly still a possibility since there was a dropsonde that had 79 knot surface winds not too long ago from the last AF mission. However there has been no observed drop in pressure since earlier this afternoon, as it continues to hover in the 950's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 1am advisory has the position to 33.1°N 76.5°W a sizable jump westward since the last recon left the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I still think its pretty unlikely we see any appreciable increase in winds before landfall... maintaining 85 knots is certainly still a possibility since there was a dropsonde that had 79 knot surface winds not too long ago from the last AF mission. However there has been no observed drop in pressure since earlier this afternoon, as it continues to hover in the 950's. It may not gain intensity, but I think people will be surprised how well this maintains much of its intensity as it goes north. It will probably still be a minimal hurricane up here. These large TCs do not weaken rapidly. I guess it's because their energy is distributed over a large area, therefore a significant part of their circulation is still over the Ocean, even if it's just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 1am advisory has the position to 33.1°N 76.5°W a sizable jump westward since the last recon left the system It is? I though the VDM's you posted were around that 76.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It is? I though the VDM's you posted were around that 76.5W The VDM's give the location in minute format which one minute = 1/60th of a degree of longitude. 076 deg 52 min W was the most recent VDM, which means 76 and 52/60 W of a degree, or 76.867W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The VDM's give the location in minute format which one minute = 1/60th of a degree of longitude. 076 deg 52 min W was the most recent VDM, which means 76 and 52/60 W of a degree, or 76.867W. You said sizeable jump westward... thats where I am confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 You said sizeable jump westward... thats where I am confused For a system that is moving at 20 degrees and suppose to only be to 76.4W by 8pm, it is rather sizable. Although I suppose with the time period it is not as sizable as I might have made it seen, I made that post more so in response for the .3W jump between the midnight position estimate and the 1am advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Based on recon, the center a bit west of the 1am advisory, roughly 076 deg 35 min W (76.58)W. Extrap pressure 950.9mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 For reference, rough location of the center marked in red. Radar image from 2:01, center pass near 1:57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 952mb on drop, 4kt splash, so general trend for the time seems to be holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 New recon mission. First pass is SW-NE... Pressure still holding at 952mb, as Dan mentions above. Max FL wind in the SW quad was 62kts and the max in the NE quad was 100kts. URNT12 KNHC 270619 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 27/05:57:10Z B. 33 deg 22 min N 076 deg 35 min W C. 700 mb 2679 m D. 54 kt E. 221 deg 73 nm F. 295 deg 61 kt G. 212 deg 35 nm H. 952 mb I. 15 C / 3043 m J. 16 C / 3044 m K. 7 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF306 3109A IRENE OB 03 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 06:10:40Z (100kts recorded after VDM was sent.) MAX FL TEMP 17 C 212 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://www.ustream.t...-weather-webcam A live stream out of Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://www.ustream.t...-weather-webcam A live stream out of Carolinas this guy is a darwin award nominee.. he's parked right under a power line trying to get footage of a pole coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Eye getting close to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 this guy is a darwin award nominee.. he's parked right under a power line trying to get footage of a pole coming down. This guys nuts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Just seeing the latest IR depictions on TWC, and the radar, the system looks really ragged right now...looks like the west side of the core is being eroded away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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