CT Rain Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I'm actually interested what the next 6 weeks bring in terms of hydro. It looks like we'll have a troughing signal over the next two weeks on the east coast. Throw in any tropical moisture, and you'll have more of those 9" of rain in 9 hrs type deals. Also, if we do get something near or into the USA...whether it be a recurve or a gulf storm translating into a mid latitude cyclone in the Plains....it will probably bring the first "real" shot of polar air. It's happened a few times...it might be a 1 day cool shot, but if a trough can bring a storm near or onto the US...it could also phase and really drive a cool shot into the northern tier. Of course it is just speculating, but we are perhaps entering more interesting times anyways. Wet Augusts always worry me about big September/early October hydro issues if pattern locks in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Summer is certainly on its way out. Just picked a bunch of tomatoes and basil for a fresh marinara I am making right now, and the garden is showing signs of ending. Poured a glass of red, first time I have craved that since last winter........this weekend I will build the fire pit for the fall and winter season and some stressed out trees are showing brown muted colors. There will be plenty of warmth for sure, but the descent into autumn has begun, and that descent is very slow and gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Summer is certainly on its way out. Just picked a bunch of tomatoes and basil for a fresh marinara I am making right now, and the garden is showing signs of ending. Poured a glass of red, first time I have craved that since last winter........this weekend I will build the fire pit for the fall and winter season and some stressed out trees are showing brown muted colors. There will be plenty of warmth for sure, but the descent into autumn has begun, and that descent is very slow and gradual. The last time someone hearekened the seasonal change nearing autumn by mentioning a bottle of red - over on eastern - we didn't have winter for 2 years. Nice goin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The last time someone hearekened the seasonal change nearing autumn by mentioning a bottle of red - over on eastern - we didn't have winter for 2 years. Nice goin' Nice, give me snow around the holidays then epic la torch, wood and oil are ridiculously expensive. Snowy and around 30 for the winter would be just fine! Cold is useless if there is no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 How can anyone be ready for fall? June was lost to summer this year..So we've only 2 well above normal months in July and August. I'm ready for fall in about mid-late September...Just please give us a good direct hit from a cane this year. I mean what do we have to do to get one to come up and hit us. Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 How can anyone be ready for fall? June was lost to summer this year..So we've only 2 well above normal months in July and August. I'm ready for fall in about mid-late September...Just please give us a good direct hit from a cane this year. I mean what do we have to do to get one to come up and hit us. Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 How can anyone be ready for fall? June was lost to summer this year..So we've only 2 well above normal months in July and August. I'm ready for fall in about mid-late September...Just please give us a good direct hit from a cane this year. I mean what do we have to do to get one to come up and hit us. Come on August is well above normal? BDL was +0.6 going into today BOS wat +0.5 Well above yer fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Hard to believe in 74 short days the annual lighting of the festivus tree will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 79 now we warm rapidly here on a n or nw wind I think we hit 87-88 here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I pick SH as my Festivus Ambassador Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Hard to believe in 74 short days the annual lighting of the festivus tree will happen! November 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 79 now we warm rapidly here on a n or nw wind I think we hit 87-88 here tomorrow. 65F here coming off a "high" of 67 Different worlds my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Feels awesome out there right now. 70/62. Sun peeking out finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Its just heaven out on the deck 76 sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I pick SH as my Festivus Ambassador You should have seen her in "'From Dusk 'Til Dawn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 How can anyone be ready for fall? June was lost to summer this year..So we've only 2 well above normal months in July and August. I'm ready for fall in about mid-late September...Just please give us a good direct hit from a cane this year. I mean what do we have to do to get one to come up and hit us. Come on Ray's a dork... that said, I think we are just in a bad deterministic guidance interval for the warm weather seekers; those that pretty much just resent summer regardless are zipping the warm season to a conclusion based on the tone of these runs. Let them have their fun. But, I know we are in a bad interval for determinism in general - no model has demonstrated a very good continuity over the last week. NCEP has taken note of this - all over the place really. That alone is a red flag not to trust warm or cool going forward. We are caught up in the weeds of the last 2 days of murk but already, the 18z NAM's FRH grid has 15C at 850 for tomorrow and Thursday, and with WSW/SW winds throughout the area, that should be good for 82F with spot 84s - it'll distance yesterday's disaster pretty quick getting a couple days like that back to back ... still quite summery. Factually, the NAO index no longer really supports the extremeness of these digging troughs - the big rains in the MA and our reduced version was quite analogous to a "warm season Archembault event", while the NAO was recovering and the PNA spiked. Not meaning to trumpet against the cold season types either, going forward *for the time being* I do think objectively there is some plausibility that ECM's over doing it. It's own ensemble mean from 12z was a tad flatter, and the GFS ensembles were a tad flatter still. The extended operational GFS runs have been more often showing a complete relaxation of the westerlies and an expansion of subtropical ridges - it may be latching onto an emerging signal yet here. I've seen the GFS do this before, where it knocks N/A on the door of a pattern change that seems to lag by a couple of weeks. Who's to say it is not doing so now, but with a neutralized NAO that is mop ended among the ensembles as to how far it's next nadir goes, it's fair enough to question whether summer is really toast just yet. That all said, I think troughs and/or weakness in the geopotential medium has been the primary characterization of our summer. It's the one and only reason why we had a 3 day taste of the the 3-week death star heat wave in the MW/MV/GL regions - we were protected. That can pay dividens if it persists into the autumn. 1995's summer had that trough shunter during the summer and they had a similar heat wave that year too - interestingly enough. Anyway, winter came hard and in a wicked gradient first for NW New England in late October, then mid November for most of Mass we were already snowing seasonally - not by accident. Said weakness/trough persisted into autumn and the first half of winter and brought the NP right on down with it. Fwiw, I have been watching the ENSO signal and not necessarily in terms of thermal distribution, but the overall average of the Basin is remarkably similar for me, having the summer of 1995 being in a neutral negative mode such as we've enjoyed erstwhile in 2011. Throw the decadal flip in the MDO of the NAO and ...eh heh. Yeah. This winter's interesting to say the least for this Meteorologist. I realize there are a lot of blow-torchers out there. Harv and I used to take note that some of the best winters ever are neutral negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 59/57, rn+, a high of 65, Rain has regenerated here this evening. Cool and rainy still. Hell of a way to run a torch month.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Wow... I'm cooler than MRGland! 57.7/57 Wonder if I can tickle 49 for the first time in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 59/57, rn+, a high of 65, Rain has regenerated here this evening. Cool and rainy still. Hell of a way to run a torch month.lol I believe many members of the board (such as Isotherm and myself) thought that August would be the coolest month of the summer, just like 2008. So it doesn't come as too much of a surprise as it's pretty typical in these Niña/-PDO summers for the ridge to retrograde into the West during the final month of meteorological summer. I witnessed this personally last year when I was living in Montana; June and July were both cold and wet with a predominant -PNA and frequent storms cutting through the prairies of eastern MT and western ND, but August was quite dry and even hot on some occasions. It's much better for it to be cool when you're working 50 hours/week in a busy restaurant kitchen, but I was just thankful we were at 4600' elevation so it never could be stiflingly hot. Even the warmest nights had lows around 60F, and we used the electric heating quite a few times in June and July. I would go to the apartment of the person I was dating, and we would flip on the heater and then snuggle underneath blankets and blankets, this on the summer solstice and again on July 4th. Crazy for someone from NYC metro. Anyway, it's been a very comfortable August here in Dobbs Ferry....feels great to have the A/C off for a change! I really appreciate the cooldown after such a torrid summer in the inner suburbs, in a house that only has A/C in the bedrooms. Next week may really feel like fall! Anyway, here are my highs/lows for the last 4 days: Aug 16: 75/63 Aug 15: 74/67 Aug 14: 78/68 Aug 13: 82/63 Nice night out with clear skies and 65.7/64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 That trough early next week looks beautiful on the Euro. Looks like 850s get near 6C here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Where's the cold dry air? Low was 62 here..and dew is 60 and dropped no lower than that. Drenching run this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Where's the cold dry air? Low was 62 here..and dew is 60 and dropped no lower than that. Drenching run this morning Upper 50s here at work. Next week looks like a nice trough coming through. 30s in NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Where's the cold dry air? Low was 62 here..and dew is 60 and dropped no lower than that. Drenching run this morning 52/52, off a low of 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Upper 50s here at work. Next week looks like a nice trough coming through. 30s in NNE? Only early week..late next week looks torchy as we have a hot westerly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Tolland voted 37th best town to live in in the US..and #1 in CT in Money magazine..3rd year in a row. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Tolland voted 37th best town to live in in the US..and #1 in CT in Money magazine..3rd year in a row. FTW The lack of good snow held them back.Shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Only early week..late next week looks torchy as we have a hot westerly flow Maybe a few warm days by the end of the month, then trough again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The lack of good snow held them back.Shame. They don't tell you that you're stuck in the winter because snow removal is so horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Where's the cold dry air? Low was 62 here..and dew is 60 and dropped no lower than that. Drenching run this morning Low 50s here this morning but yep, a fair bit of left over moisture in the air. Light fog up here in the hills this morning and webcams show the immediate CT valley to be socked right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Maybe a few warm days by the end of the month, then trough again. If that means a +5 "torchhhh", then I'll happily endure a few days in the low 80s. 54/53 currently ... great sleeping weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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