Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    EWR757
    Newest Member
    EWR757
    Joined

July 4th Holiday weekend wx


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

Lol. Well, we raised 12 of the 100. I'll slit their necks. Once they've drained they get brought to the plucker. After plucking, they'll be gutted and wrapped (either whole or parts). We'll freeze them and eat them over the course of the next several months.

Nice. A roast chicken is awesome during the fall or winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 852
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Wow, looking at the polar-stereographic overview over at PSU E-wall for the 00z GFS/ECM D8-10 means shows a whopper -AO with very stable pentagonal R-Wave configuration. Whenever you get a 4/5 wave count around the hemisphere that is considered among the more stable there is; both ECM and GFS means essentially agree, too...

What that would suggest is that in the dailies ... we may recoup some heat based on translating systems but any prolonged heat is not likely... The -AO is suppressing the westerlies in latitude somewhat anomalously, and the pentagonal configuration of L/W and L/R around the hemisphere is in no hurry to break it down.

Of course... the means tonight could be entirely different - but that's another story.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, looking at the polar-stereographic overview over at PSU E-wall for the 00z GFS/ECM D8-10 means shows a whopper -AO with very stable pentagonal R-Wave configuration. Whenever you get a 4/5 wave count around the hemisphere that is considered among the more stable there is; both ECM and GFS means essentially agree, too...

What that would suggest is that in the dailies ... we may recoup some heat based on translating systems but any prolonged heat is not likely... The -AO is suppressing the westerlies in latitude somewhat anomalously, and the pentagonal configuration of L/W and L/R around the hemisphere is in no hurry to break it down.

Of course... the means tonight could be entirely different - but that's another story.

As we thought.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, looking at the polar-stereographic overview over at PSU E-wall for the 00z GFS/ECM D8-10 means shows a whopper -AO with very stable pentagonal R-Wave configuration. Whenever you get a 4/5 wave count around the hemisphere that is considered among the more stable there is; both ECM and GFS means essentially agree, too...

What that would suggest is that in the dailies ... we may recoup some heat based on translating systems but any prolonged heat is not likely... The -AO is suppressing the westerlies in latitude somewhat anomalously, and the pentagonal configuration of L/W and L/R around the hemisphere is in no hurry to break it down.

Of course... the means tonight could be entirely different - but that's another story.

AWT and AMOUT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Transient heat and humidity is what we thought the summer would offer.

and it's really better that way - for me anyway... I mean, if it's cappy heat then forget thunder. Huge water bills for the garden... I like the turn overs because that's your severe chances.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Love to see Kev waffle more than a Waffle House.:lmao:

Its similar to 2009 when he kept calling for the huge torches in the day 7-10 time frame and they never materialized. The old faux heat waves. Now he is reduced to saying "we will get some transient warm spells" and calling those torches. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then again one of the mesosites nearby is reporting td of 46F...

It certainly doesn;t feel uncomfortable... maybe my dog has been panting near my gauge

Most of the mesonets will tend to report dewpoints higher than ASOS stations because of their proximity to denser foliage. ASOS stations are out in open areas.

Its tough to get good readings from mesonet sites in the summer because of this and also the sun angle being higher will affect those sites without a solar shield or a sub-par solar shield. Winter time tends to produce much more accurate readings on those sites. That doesn't mean they aren't useful in the summer time though...just have to be aware of potential biases in the readings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most of the mesonets will tend to report dewpoints higher than ASOS stations because of their proximity to denser foliage. ASOS stations are out in open areas.

Its tough to get good readings from mesonet sites in the summer because of this and also the sun angle being higher will affect those sites without a solar shield or a sub-par solar shield. Winter time tends to produce much more accurate readings on those sites. That doesn't mean they aren't useful in the summer time though...just have to be aware of potential biases in the readings.

Interesting, those of us who live surrounded by forest know the effects of dampness from foliage. Just got through power washing the house, sheds, sidewalks. Non sun areas on the forest sides get green from wetness. So those mesonets high DPs reflect my reality ASOS reflect non rural reality more. Localized influences much more obvious in deep summer or deep winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final June departures will be interesting. BOS is a lock for below average, and I think PVD will squeak below average too (though it will be close). ORH should be a bit above average and BDL slightly more than that. I'm guessing the final numbers will be something like:

BOS: -1.0

PVD: -0.1

ORH: +0.2

BDL: +0.3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting, those of us who live surrounded by forest know the effects of dampness from foliage. Just got through power washing the house, sheds, sidewalks. Non sun areas on the forest sides get green from wetness. So those mesonets high DPs reflect my reality ASOS reflect non rural reality more. Localized influences much more obvious in deep summer or deep winter.

Yeah...some of those rural higher DPs are very real. It's a similar deal for my station...especially when wind are light and I don't receive much mixing. It's not as extreme as the dewpoint pooling over the cornfields in the upper Mississippi Valley, but they're legitimately higher than urban areas nonetheless.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final June departures will be interesting. BOS is a lock for below average, and I think PVD will squeak below average too (though it will be close). ORH should be a bit above average and BDL slightly more than that. I'm guessing the final numbers will be something like:

BOS: -1.0

PVD: -0.1

ORH: +0.2

BDL: +0.3

The ocean has been menacing this year for coastal locales. Sometimes synoptically driven, sometimes purely for the local hadley cell effect - one way or the other ...can't seem to shake the easterly plague.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fyi, this is what the GFS and ECM were trying to bring in here on the runs from last week:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

219 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...HEAT WAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION...

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FOURTH OF

JULY WEEKEND. AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN

MISSOURI COULD BEGIN EXPERIENCING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 105

DEGREES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BY THURSDAY...ALL OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES

RANGING FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT

LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

THIS HEAT WAVE WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A

SUMMERTIME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BECOME CENTERED

DIRECTLY OVER THE OZARKS REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>057-066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104-

290730-

/O.NEW.KSGF.EH.A.0001.110629T1700Z-110702T2000Z/

BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-

HICKORY-CAMDEN-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-JASPER-DADE-

GREENE-WEBSTER-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-

TANEY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...

BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...

ELDON...LAKE OZARK...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...

HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...

STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...

GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...NEOSHO...

AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...

MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH

219 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED AN

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES

WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN

MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NEARLY

ALL OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100

TO 105 DEGREES. THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

* TEMPERATURE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE

90S TO AROUND 100 ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS.

* IMPACTS...THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL INCREASE AS

WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT

TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND

HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN

WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY

IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP

ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

&&

$$

CRAMER

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final June departures will be interesting. BOS is a lock for below average, and I think PVD will squeak below average too (though it will be close). ORH should be a bit above average and BDL slightly more than that. I'm guessing the final numbers will be something like:

BOS: -1.0

PVD: -0.1

ORH: +0.2

BDL: +0.3

Hard to believe how much warmer to average we have been compared with other spots around sne.

+1.4 here so far.

should end up around +1.6 or so, a lot of that was driven by warm overnight lows though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...