ORH_wxman Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Forecast for Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Forecast for Wednesday? The synoptic set-up is a bit similar but I think the low pressure tracks too far north for this much shear. In June 1953 we had a 990s low over Southern Quebec, this time it's in Northern Quebec towards Hudson Bay, which means pressure falls shouldn't be as intense and we'll be lacking the kinematics featured in that event, even if the airmass is overall a bit more unstable with a bigger heat wave preceding the outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The synoptic set-up is a bit similar but I think the low pressure tracks too far north for this much shear. In June 1953 we had a 990s low over Southern Quebec, this time it's in Northern Quebec towards Hudson Bay, which means pressure falls shouldn't be as intense and we'll be lacking the kinematics featured in that event, even if the airmass is overall a bit more unstable with a bigger heat wave preceding the outbreak. It was tongue in cheek. There's a lot of things wrong with this current setup. We already losing our EML as we get closer...though the GFS doesn't look bad tonight. The NAM had been getting progressively worse. The '53 event occurred just south of the warm front too so there was likely a sh**ton of low level helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Major differences between the NAM and the GFS, especially with regards to the EML. Some things to keep in mind though the NAM outside of 48 HR's is not very stable...we all know this, especially in the winter but it holds true in the summer as well. In the few days the NAM has been in range we have seen plenty of shifts within the model while the GFS has stayed more consistent...we'll see though. Still plenty of issues to work out. The NAM though is further south with the system in Quebec which does give us much more shear. The Day 3 outlook will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Forecast for Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 3z SPC SREF svr probs pretty damn decent...hint at moderate risk potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 THe 6z NAM continues to look pretty impressive with the hodographs and potential for a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 06z gfs vortmax is se of yesterdays 12z gfs.. same thing for nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I think the bigger concern for Wednesday should turn to can the airmass recover quickly enough and how steep will the lapse rates actually be? IT looks like the EML is going to fade some and lapse rates may not really be all that steep...still steep but nothing overly impressive...just over 6 C/KM...this could be huge b/c if we do get morning crap and pop up showers latent heat release is gonig to destroy these lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The threat Tuesday night is better now than the Wed threat. A thread should be started for Tuesday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I still think Wednesday looks good as long as we don't have a lot of crap in the AM/midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I think the 06z NAM hodo's would earn a tor watch if it verified... getting unstable may be an issue.. alot of the profiles don't have any cape at 11am.. but really the clouds look to be less of an issue then previous runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 LOL, GFS looks like crap for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 LOL, GFS looks like crap for Wednesday. Don't tell Wiz. It still looks ok back this way I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Don't tell Wiz. It still looks ok back this way I think. It looks like we could have debris clouds again here in the morning, but that's always a last minute thing to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 It looks like we could have debris clouds again here in the morning, but that's always a last minute thing to figure out. West is best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 West is best Meh, it might be...or it could look like crap as we get closer. Certainly has potential...but this is like hoping Richmond VA gets into a deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Meh, it might be...or it could look like crap as we get closer. Certainly has potential...but this is like hoping Richmond VA gets into a deformation band. Or Kevin's high temperature forecast to pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Or Kevin's high temperature forecast to pan out Or your awesome light show forecast of storms between 12-5 last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Or your awesome light show forecast of storms between 12-5 last nite lol by 11 I bumped things back until after daybreak lo Considering most didn't expect anything... I think my forecast was ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Or Kevin's high temperature forecast to pan out He's had a bit of a rough stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 He's had a bit of a rough stretch. I have? Other than the rainy week 2 weeks ago..how have I'? It's gotten hot and humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I have? Other than the rainy week 2 weeks ago..how have I'? It's gotten hot and humid Well you were bashing some of our cool spells that we received. Luckily the torch is done Wednesday and we have a nice end to the week. Saturday and Sunday could be mild in the interior, but the heat appears to be cut off to the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Well you were bashing some of our cool spells that we received. Luckily the torch is done Wednesday and we have a nice end to the week. Saturday and Sunday could be mild in the interior, but the heat appears to be cut off to the sw. It looks like 80-85 from Thursday thru Sunday. Not a heatwave..but certainly above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 It looks like 80-85 from Thursday thru Sunday. Not a heatwave..but certainly above normal With mid single digit 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 With mid single digit 850s? Euro is too cool at 850..you know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 It looks like 80-85 from Thursday thru Sunday. Not a heatwave..but certainly above normal That might be pushing it, especially Thursday and Friday. I wouldn't be shocked at 81 or 82 Thursday at BDL. Weekend could be warm, but Thursday and Friday nights should be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Poor Kevin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Looks good but, we know for most this wont be a big deal. Unless we don not have to deal with early am clouds. What do you guys have for timing? (sorry a bit of noob question. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Well the biggest issue were going to face is how unstable do we become? Even the GFS now is looking fairly good with the shear and with curving hodos, not as extreme as the NAM but still decent. 9z SPC SREF pretty beefy too with sig svr of 40,000... indicative of possibly a mod risk type day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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