CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Really quick again what do you look at for signs or indices for night time events? Just looking at the soundings... there is quite a bit of elevated CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 We could see a nice light show tonight... models are very unstable through the overnight. Mostly for western areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'll be interested if we trigger any convection tomorrow. Wind fields start to crank after 18z... 30-40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Plus some very solid instability. That said heights increase through the day Monday and that is normally a warning sign to me to go hard on the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Just looking at the soundings... there is quite a bit of elevated CAPE Elevated cape can be found whereabouts on bufkit? What is considered substantial? Same scale as BLCAPE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I did my best at a simple guess at a timeframe for that mcs and it would be at least midnight I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I was excited for Monday on Friday morning so I made a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The MCS tonight is probably going to ride along the axis of where the strongest MUcape exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The MCS tonight is probably going to ride along the axis of where the strongest MUcape exists. which is where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 If you want to see some weather porn check out the 18z NAM for Wednesday. Wow. Wouldn't be surprised if someone in the northeast had a decent light show and maybe even some hail tonight. Shear spikes and MUCAPE could be >2000 j/kg after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 which is where It's probably going to ridge right up along the warm front and then once it gets much further east it may turn and follow that axis...this may actually be parts of PA into southern NY and into western MA/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 If you want to see some weather porn check out the 18z NAM for Wednesday. Wow. Wouldn't be surprised if someone in the northeast had a decent light show and maybe even some hail tonight. Shear spikes and MUCAPE could be >2000 j/kg after midnight. 18z NAM is pretty damn sick, really ramps up helicity a bit too as it's stronger with the shear. Looking at tonight further...it's quite interesting actually. I kind of like our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 18z NAM is pretty damn sick, really ramps up helicity a bit too as it's stronger with the shear. Looking at tonight further...it's quite interesting actually. I kind of like our area. What do you think for down here? Is my garden going to get rain tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 What do you think for down here? Is my garden going to get rain tonight? I think you might be just a tad too far south. Probably best to use the hose to get your garden wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I think you might be just a tad too far south. Probably best to use the hose to get your garden wet Think it makes it through this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I think you might be just a tad too far south. Probably best to use the hose to get your garden wet Yeah I just went out there and watered a bit...these above average temperatures are sucking the water out, although overall it's a big plus for the garden. I've never seen fruit on the tomatoes and blooms on the eggplant and peppers this early in the season. 3 days in the 90s is going to really ramp things up, wouldn't be surprised if I'm harvesting cherry tomatoes by mid June at this rate. 78.2/70 off a high of 81.1F.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 If you want to see some weather porn check out the 18z NAM for Wednesday. Wow. Wouldn't be surprised if someone in the northeast had a decent light show and maybe even some hail tonight. Shear spikes and MUCAPE could be >2000 j/kg after midnight. How about for us? That's all that's important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Think it makes it through this way? It might try but it may go just to your south and probably really start to weaken by the time it gets close to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah I just went out there and watered a bit...these above average temperatures are sucking the water out, although overall it's a big plus for the garden. I've never seen fruit on the tomatoes and blooms on the eggplant and peppers this early in the season. 3 days in the 90s is going to really ramp things up, wouldn't be surprised if I'm harvesting cherry tomatoes by mid June at this rate. 78.2/70 off a high of 81.1F.... Cherry tomatoes are pretty good. You should give me a cherry tomato next rime I see you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 BOX says no cap tomorrow. Tomorrow might be a wilder day than Wednesday MONDAY... WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS...DECREASING STABILITY WITH THE ADVECTION OF HIGH DWPT AIR AND COOLING AIR ALOFT...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED ROUND OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MEMORIAL DAY. THE LONG WAVE TROF IN NRN QUEBEC AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LOWER SUPPRESS THE MID LVL RIDGE DURING THE DAY...ERODING THE CAP THAT KEPT TODAY /SUNDAY/ MOSTLY DRY. ONE KEY TO WATCH WILL BE SFC TEMP TRENDS. WHILE H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 17C...REMAINING CLOUD DEBRIS MAY CAP MIXING SOMEWHAT. ANY AREAS THAT SEAS MORE SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE LOW 90S. THE COOLING ALOFT AND VERY WARM TEMPS NEAR THE SFC IN SUNSHINE SUGGEST SFC LI/S CONTINUE DECREASING S OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. SFC BASED CAPE ALSO INCREASES TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG IN THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE MORNING THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED AND ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE PER LATEST TRENDS...THERE IS ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED SVR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONE CAVEAT IS THE WARM AIRMASS SUGGEST ASCENDING FREEZING LEVELS AND WETBULB ZEROS DURING THE DAY...WHICH MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT LARGER HAIL. IN ANY CASE...THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER SUGGESTION OF DECREASING STABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 It might try but it may go just to your south and probably really start to weaken by the time it gets close to you. Well why would it weaken aren't we just as unstable as you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Well why would it weaken aren't we just as unstable as you? The best MUcape values may be further off to your west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 BOX says no cap tomorrow. Tomorrow might be a wilder day than Wednesday MONDAY... WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS...DECREASING STABILITY WITH THE ADVECTION OF HIGH DWPT AIR AND COOLING AIR ALOFT...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR A CONTINUED ROUND OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MEMORIAL DAY. THE LONG WAVE TROF IN NRN QUEBEC AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LOWER SUPPRESS THE MID LVL RIDGE DURING THE DAY...ERODING THE CAP THAT KEPT TODAY /SUNDAY/ MOSTLY DRY. ONE KEY TO WATCH WILL BE SFC TEMP TRENDS. WHILE H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 17C...REMAINING CLOUD DEBRIS MAY CAP MIXING SOMEWHAT. ANY AREAS THAT SEAS MORE SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE LOW 90S. THE COOLING ALOFT AND VERY WARM TEMPS NEAR THE SFC IN SUNSHINE SUGGEST SFC LI/S CONTINUE DECREASING S OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. SFC BASED CAPE ALSO INCREASES TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG IN THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE MORNING THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED AND ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE PER LATEST TRENDS...THERE IS ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED SVR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONE CAVEAT IS THE WARM AIRMASS SUGGEST ASCENDING FREEZING LEVELS AND WETBULB ZEROS DURING THE DAY...WHICH MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT LARGER HAIL. IN ANY CASE...THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER SUGGESTION OF DECREASING STABILITY. I highly, highly doubt that. Maybe some isolated storms tomorrow but I don't think it's particularly widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 BOX says no cap tomorrow. Tomorrow might be a wilder day than Wednesday Pretty much garbage for shear tomorrow...they would probably be pulsers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 the spc wrf is pretty bullish with convection propagating eastward through sne overnight tonight. this is valid 12z monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Thank God the SPC SREF is back up running...didn't run Thursday or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Pretty much garbage for shear tomorrow...they would probably be pulsers. Really? Back here it looks 30-40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. 18z NAM less.... 12z GFS more. NW winds up to 40 knots at 500mb 18z-00z with somewhat veered boundary layer winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 the spc wrf is pretty bullish with convection propagating eastward through sne overnight tonight. this is valid 12z monday. I'm bullish too. I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a light show and maybe some hail. Instability is looking more and more impressive each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm bullish too. I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a light show and maybe some hail. Instability is looking more and more impressive each model run. Can you give a timeframe? Like is it between 12-5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Really? Back here it looks 30-40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. 18z NAM less.... 12z GFS more. NW winds up to 40 knots at 500mb 18z-00z with somewhat veered boundary layer winds. meh idk...maybe I'm looking wrong but shear doesn't look all too impressive...perhaps borderline but convergence may be rather limited with NW LL flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Can you give a timeframe? Like is it between 12-5? Yeah something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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