OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 So let's take some guesses on what will go wrong Wednesday. 18z NAM has a pretty sizable tornado threat. tornado threat looks marginal to me on the 18z HFD and ORH NAM soundings IMO...0-2km helicity only reaches 200 when instablity begins to drop after 00z. The thing that could wrong IMO...is that there is quite enough lift to erode the cap. It's the biggest issue I see at this point. The NAMM does not explicitly break the cap on Wednesday. The shortwave and the upper level jet streaks are too far north to get good lift to the area...500mb heights drop 4-5 dm from 06z Wednesday until about frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 What was going on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I thought the hard south turn was attempt at sne severe trolling lol this weather is too nice to troll anybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 As long as the vortmax does not trend further north then like say the 12z runs showed... we have an event in place.. With each passing model run the chances should decrease of a further north trend, however, were still far enough out to where we have to at least worry. If by the 0z runs tomorrow night we see no north trend we could probably relax some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 What was going on here? We were playing whiffle ball and behind my friends house there was a stream and the ball went into it, I was a little drunk and I tried getting the ball...I tried to jump onto this rock but I missed it and went straight into the stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Paul your looking classy in that pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 And then here?? Five or six 40's later?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Wiz, I think you should refer to yourself as Dr. Wizwell, Severe weather professional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 And then here?? Five or six 40's later?? That kid who is at the base hit the ball and I dove trying to get him out at first but threw the ball away and he went to second base (the base he is on) and I was pissed I did that...there was a runner at first and instead of just tagging the runner I tried to get him out, I threw the ball away and a run scored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Wiz, I think you should refer to yourself as Dr. Wizwell, Severe weather professional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 That kid who is at the base hit the ball and I dove trying to get him out at first but threw the ball away and he went to second base (the base he is on) and I was pissed I did that...there was a runner at first and instead of just tagging the runner I tried to get him out, I threw the ball away and a run scored. I think you were so drunk and passed out in the middle of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I think you were so drunk and passed out in the middle of the game Nope...I just made a dumb play and just laid there for several seconds. I also dove for a ball and caught cement and cut my right eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 as modeled this looks like a moderate risk day...with the biggest threat being high end winds and hail IMO. If the shortwave verifies significantly further south then we could be talking about something historic. I posted a NARR analysis of May 31, 1985 and the pattern looks pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I think you were so drunk and passed out in the middle of the game Kevin I agree, either that or he passed out for staying up for a straight week tracking an elevated convection severe threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 as modeled this looks like a moderate risk day...with the biggest threat being high end winds and hail IMO. If the shortwave verifies significantly further south then we could be talking about something historic. I posted a NARR analysis of May 31, 1985 and the pattern looks pretty similar. Going by the significant severe probs on the SPC SREF this definitely has potential to be a moderate risk day...or at least a high end slight. I can't wait until the day 3 outlook comes out...sometime between 3:30-4:30 AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I can't wait until the day 3 outlook comes out...sometime between 3:30-4:30 AM! I'll be sleeping...as much as I love severe weather I learned not to stay up for Day 3 outlooks. It will probably be a broad 30% contour. Outside chance they have hatching in there. They tend to be very careful with big outlooks and probs for this part of the country. And rightly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'll be sleeping...as much as I love severe weather I learned not to stay up for Day 3 outlooks. It will probably be a broad 30% contour. Outside chance they have hatching in there. They tend to be very careful with big outlooks and probs for this part of the country. And rightly so. Yeah I don't think we'll see anything larger than 30% probs right now, especially with some major questions still to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Sometimes cloud cover gets overdone with W/NW flows in the mid and upper levels. Just like it can be overdone with a SW low levell flow. I could see the NW flow downsloping us sufficiently to keep the CT River Valley and Hudson Valley pretty clear. We tend to have a lot less cloud cover on W/NW winds than the elevated areas. I could see this trending worse as Ryan said...if that whole system is further north. Hopefully it trends the other way because if it does, it could be a really really good setup, but I'm not holding my breath yet. Doesn't this look a lot like the June 9, 1953 set-up that produced the Worcester F4? We have the same type of strong low pressure tracking through Quebec preceded by a heat wave, except this time the system is a bit farther north so the pressure falls and associated shear may not be as strong. I'm not trying to make weenie comparisons, but this does appear to have much in common with the June 1953 outbreak, except more limited in regional scope. OT but, I just planted a bunch of summer veggies, and how often should you water cukes, strawberries and tomatoes in heat like this? If they are young and you just planted them, you should water them moderately every day because the root system is shallow, and they also may experience transplant shock. As the plants mature and the roots deepen, then every two days is probably enough during warm spells with no rain. Containers/pots tend to need more frequent watering than things planted in the ground since the small volume of soil dries out more quickly and doesn't allow the roots to extend themselves fully. I have been watering my potted tomatoes every day since temperatures started getting into the 80s here. They're doing very well as one plant purchased from Home Depot around April 25th already has two tomatoes on it. I'll be sleeping...as much as I love severe weather I learned not to stay up for Day 3 outlooks. It will probably be a broad 30% contour. Outside chance they have hatching in there. They tend to be very careful with big outlooks and probs for this part of the country. And rightly so. What does the hatching indicate? I never really understood that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 What does the hatching indicate? I never really understood that... sig svr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 tornado threat looks marginal to me on the 18z HFD and ORH NAM soundings IMO...0-2km helicity only reaches 200 when instablity begins to drop after 00z. Disagree. It looks fairly significant for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Disagree. It looks fairly significant for SNE. Thanks for the answer to my ignorant question. Could tornadoes occur further south down towards my area, or are the best pressure falls too far north for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Thanks for the answer to my ignorant question. Could tornadoes occur further south down towards my area, or are the best pressure falls too far north for me? Ask me on Tuesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Disagree. It looks fairly significant for SNE. I think the LL helicity would be stronger than modeled too, especially with the flow being more from the SSW...could get enhanced in the valley regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I think the LL helicity would be stronger than modeled too, especially with the flow being more from the SSW...could get enhanced in the valley regions. Yeah the hodographs are fairly eye-popping for this neck of the woods... I'm not sure what Nick is looking at. Obviously tons can go wrong and it's a 72 hour forecast but the models are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah the hodographs are fairly eye-popping for this neck of the woods... I'm not sure what Nick is looking at. Obviously tons can go wrong and it's a 72 hour forecast but the models are impressive. I also like the fact that LCL's may be on the lower side, especially if we can really get those higher dewpoints to work in. The helicity values being presented are pretty intense for SNE standards...0-1km helicity between 150-200 m2s2 with 0-3km between 150-200 m2s2 as well...that is pretty significant for this region. Perhaps he is making his judgement on the fact that normally out west you see 250-300+ helicity but we really don't see those numbers here, or see them too often with other favorable parameters in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 This is about as good as it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 This MCS is holding together very well as it progresses west.. not any sign of warming tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 New thread for MCS potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Yeah the hodographs are fairly eye-popping for this neck of the woods... I'm not sure what Nick is looking at. Obviously tons can go wrong and it's a 72 hour forecast but the models are impressive. well with low-level helicity less than 200...I don't typically think tornadoes. 0-1 km helicity is 171 on the NAMM at 00z in HFD. 0-1km shear is 30-35 kt...that's pretty significant.. Do you think the helicity will stronger than what is modeled by the GFS and the NAM if the synoptic depiction remains the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 well with low-level helicity less than 200...I don't typically think tornadoes. 0-1 km helicity is 171 on the NAMM at 00z in HFD. 0-1km shear is 30-35 kt...that's pretty significant.. Do you think the helicity will stronger than what is modeled by the GFS and the NAM if the synoptic depiction remains the same? Quite possibly... it's impossible for the models to try to resolve mesoscale features that will modulate the boundary layer flow. I've found more often than not you see the winds backed a bit more than modeled (resulting in much higher helicity) with this kind of setup. You'll see the models print out what seems relatively modest shear and then you'll see the SPC analysis with much higher shear owing to a much more backed sfc wind than the coarse resolution models printed out. Seeing 2000 j/kg of CAPE with 0-1km helicity >150 on the GFS in CT is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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