snowNH Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Flipping through the BUFKIT soundings on Wednesday on the GFS is pretty wild. Looks like the EML will help lid convection until we start getting the synoptic scale lift in here from that 500 mb shortwave. Fairly strong winds aloft with a backed boundary layer flow look good. I'm worried about either overnight convection that covers us with a lot of cloud cover during the day and/or that convection driving steep mid level lapse rates to crap. Also if we get a pre frontal trough to swing through too early and winds wind up veering we could dry out the boundary layer too fast. Something to watch for. Ryan, where are the favorable spots for SVR weather in this setup... pretty much all of new england.. or like W CT, MA, etc...? As of now at least. Also, is this more of a late afternoon deal or night time(8-10). Looking at the GFS, it looks like the storms swing through around 00z EDIT: in response below, what would cause them to die out for eastern areas? diurnal cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Ryan, where are the favorable spots for SVR weather in this setup... pretty much all of new england.. or like W CT, MA, etc...? As of now at least. Definitely inland areas. I'd probably save E NY, W CT, W & C Mass, S VT, NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Just remember that diffluence doesn't necessarily mean there is net divergence. You actually have speed convergence there coming out of the base of the trough as the winds weaken and the air "piles up". You can plot the div/conv on the Plym Vortex site I believe though. Yeah I think I was assuming there was net divergence I just went back and looked at the image and I see what you mean. I actually think you can plot that on there...should have done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I would definitely go with eastern NY/western CT as the potential hot spot for Wednesday...maybe even throw in western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 This event is intriguing. Kevin hasn't hyped it up yet and Will hasn't thrown cold water on it in a few hours. Hmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The NAM still really insists on drying things out in the mid levels with the passage of the mid level front and then dry air mixing into the lower levels and the sfc which would vastly reduce instability. The shear still looks pretty great though. As long as we don't see the dry air crap this could be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 This event is intriguing. Kevin hasn't hyped it up yet and Will hasn't thrown cold water on it in a few hours. Hmmmmmm. 21z SPC SREF continued to beef things up even more...even a 60000 contour for craven sig svr...that's pretty freaking impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Paul, couldn't the dry air also increase severity of a storm with higher winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Paul, couldn't the dry air also increase severity of a storm with higher winds? Well the dry air in the mid levels would help but you don't want the air to become too dry or otherwise updrafts are really going to struggle...unless you had some pretty insane lift. They would get choked off. However, in this case with the dry air mixing to the lower levels and the sfc it's going to lower the dewpoints and that is going to vastly decrease instability...this is why the NAM struggles to generate much more than 1500 J/KG of SBcape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I still like the like of the GFS better... NAM has been slower than the GFS on both the 18z and 00z runs compared to 18z gfs...shear looks less impressive too and mid-level gradient is located further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I still like the like of the GFS better... NAM has been slower than the GFS on both the 18z and 00z runs compared to 18z gfs...shear looks less impressive too and mid-level gradient is located further northwest. Overall the GFS is certainly better. The NAM and GFS still have some major differences...the NAM has been somewhat all over the place with this and the past few days the NAM has not done well. The GFS has remained rather consistent, and if anything has been getting more impressive, especially with the shear. SPC SREF probs have also been getting better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Overall the GFS is certainly better. The NAM and GFS still have some major differences...the NAM has been somewhat all over the place with this and the past few days the NAM has not done well. The GFS has remained rather consistent, and if anything has been getting more impressive, especially with the shear. SPC SREF probs have also been getting better as well. Can u post the link to the spc sref probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Can u post the link to the spc sref probs This is for 21z Wednesday...broad area of 40000 and you can even see a contour of 60000. This is certainly indicative of a potential moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Holy **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Holy **** lol nice hodograph. Wish lapse rates were steeper... instability is pretty meager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 lol nice hodograph. Wish lapse rates were steeper... instability is pretty meager. Why are lapse rates so meager if we have this EML? Here is the sounding at 48 for my area, White Plains, doesn't look impressive to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Just to contrast, here is the sounding from Albany in August 1973, when there was a fatal F4 tornado in Columbia County, NY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Why are lapse rates so meager if we have this EML? Here is the sounding at 48 for my area, White Plains, doesn't look impressive to me: The NAM is not really bringing much of an EML into here...the GFS has been more impressive in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 lol nice hodograph. Wish lapse rates were steeper... instability is pretty meager. Yeah I was just looking at the lapse rates...not the best. The instability is meager but it isn't all too bad. Just awaiting to see what the GFS shows...if the gFS continues the EML look and with more instability I'm not sure what way to lean...maybe in the middle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Why are lapse rates so meager if we have this EML? Here is the sounding at 48 for my area, White Plains, doesn't look impressive to me: No EML on that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 No EML on that sounding. Yeah I know, that's the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Why are lapse rates so meager if we have this EML? Here is the sounding at 48 for my area, White Plains, doesn't look impressive to me: The NAM really doesn't have an EML anymore...breaks it up before it gets here. Not sure who will win here...GFS or NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 No EML on that sounding. On the plus side, the NAM no longer shows early morning convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Through 36 hours the 00z GFS doesn't seem to be backing off at all from 12z. Slightly better in fact. Unlike the NAM though it has me worried about lingering precip and murk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The GFS is out of this world..it is pretty juicy with dews though, lower to near mid 70's...overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The NAM is not really bringing much of an EML into here...the GFS has been more impressive in that regard. At the current moment I would be inclined to side with the GFS considering it has some good support from the SREF means...which have increased 700-500mb lapse rates over the region the past 3 model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 At the current moment I would be inclined to side with the GFS considering it has some good support from the SREF means...which have increased 700-500mb lapse rates over the region the past 3 model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Oh God I can't wait for the GFS bufkit!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 At the current moment I would be inclined to side with the GFS considering it has some good support from the SREF means...which have increased 700-500mb lapse rates over the region the past 3 model cycles. GFS pretty high with dews but it does have a good deal of support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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