CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The GFS brought the EML back with style for Wednesday. 18z 550-700mb lapse rape 8.1c/k at BDL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The GFS brought the EML back with style for Wednesday. 18z 550-700mb lapse rape 8.1c/k at BDL!! It actually even looked like the NAM tried to as well, for at least part of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 It actually even looked like the NAM tried to as well, for at least part of the day. It looks like by afternoon the models want to blow a mid level front through and really dry us out upstairs. May be a race to get convection off in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 It looks like by afternoon the models want to blow a mid level front through and really dry us out upstairs. May be a race to get convection off in time. Yeah I mentioned that the other night...Nick mentioned it may have been associated with an EML but on closer look it actually looks like it's a mid-level front that comes through. This actually blows b/c the better shear comes in between 21z and 0z and things are still quite unstable at the sfc b/c with the mid-level front coming through it really dries things out and we might not have a great deal of lift in the mid-levels...we would really need some intense updrafts...that's where getting those 3500+ Cape values would be of benefit. It's NEVER a good thing when the mid-level front blows through before the sfc front (or it might be the opposite). I'm still pretty nervous, we still will have a severe threat but this might not be a widespread severe weather producing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 You can still see it on the 18z NAM, ML front comes through just after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Anyways though latest SPC SREF beefed up a bit more...definitely hinting at moderate risk stuff if we can get everything to fall in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Anyways though latest SPC SREF beefed up a bit more...definitely hinting at moderate risk stuff if we can get everything to fall in place. Hey Paul, I have the day off Wed. Wanna chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Hey Paul, I have the day off Wed. Wanna chase? Yeah you can come with me and my friend. The only issue though is I might have a baseball game that day. Tomorrow is the opening day for states and if we win round 2 is on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 This just completely blows...you can see on the NAM that dry air in the mid-levels works down into the lower levels and then to the sfc which will decrease the level of instability. We saw this alot last summer when we had these westerly flows aloft...the dews would drop during the day. If we weren't drying out the dews tomorrow this may not have really been an issue but it's asking alot for the low levels to completely recover in such a short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 18z GFS still has the EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Besides the GFS/NAM how have other models faired with the handling of the EML? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The NAM has been trending even further south... check out the 500 vort.. wow.. and now the upper level jets are right over our heads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Strong vortmax right on the canadian border! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Actually quite a bit of divergence overhead at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 18z GFS is still exceptionally impressive for Wednesday afternoon. Remnant EML along with very strong shear and instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 18z GFS is still exceptionally impressive for Wednesday afternoon. Remnant EML along with very strong shear and instability. Yeah... I have been looking at 200-500mb and there is nice support in the wind fields for an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 18z GFS is still exceptionally impressive for Wednesday afternoon. Remnant EML along with very strong shear and instability. It doesn't even look too bad with the hodo's more impressive than some of the other GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 This just completely blows...you can see on the NAM that dry air in the mid-levels works down into the lower levels and then to the sfc which will decrease the level of instability. We saw this alot last summer when we had these westerly flows aloft...the dews would drop during the day. If we weren't drying out the dews tomorrow this may not have really been an issue but it's asking alot for the low levels to completely recover in such a short amount of time. If we can keep the winds more SSW, then that would help and keep dew points higher. We definitely do not want like a WSW wind that has more downslope component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 If we can keep the winds more SSW, then that would help and keep dew points higher. We definitely do not want like a WSW wind that has more downslope component. Yeah this will be huge and something we probably won't have a solid idea about until Wednesday morning. Having the winds at the sfc and lower-levels more SSW would also create much more low-level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 If we can keep the winds more SSW, then that would help and keep dew points higher. We definitely do not want like a WSW wind that has more downslope component. yeah that will be key... i think we'll be ok in that regard with the warm front pushing through in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Flipping through the BUFKIT soundings on Wednesday on the GFS is pretty wild. Looks like the EML will help lid convection until we start getting the synoptic scale lift in here from that 500 mb shortwave. Fairly strong winds aloft with a backed boundary layer flow look good. I'm worried about either overnight convection that covers us with a lot of cloud cover during the day and/or that convection driving steep mid level lapse rates to crap. Also if we get a pre frontal trough to swing through too early and winds wind up veering we could dry out the boundary layer too fast. Something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 LOL I was screwing around imagine if the hodo from hour 37 at BDL verified for a severe event in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Hopefully the sfc low doesn't begin to weaken too fast either or otherwise we won't see as strong of height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Flipping through the BUFKIT soundings on Wednesday on the GFS is pretty wild. Looks like the EML will help lid convection until we start getting the synoptic scale lift in here from that 500 mb shortwave. Fairly strong winds aloft with a backed boundary layer flow look good. I'm worried about either overnight convection that covers us with a lot of cloud cover during the day and/or that convection driving steep mid level lapse rates to crap. Also if we get a pre frontal trough to swing through too early and winds wind up veering we could dry out the boundary layer too fast. Something to watch for. The cloud products that have been generally pretty accurate as of late on bufkit are actually pretty clear cloudwise... thats at least a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 If this actually happens I'll probably drive to wherever there is a severe storm if its withing 15-20 miles. Its pathetic but it would probably be worth it...it would be best if it could happen IMBY though. No tornado...just golf ball size hail, frequent lightning and thunder and some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Actually quite a bit of divergence overhead at 500mb diffluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 diffluence Thank you... was just going to post that myself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 diffluence Oh thanks...wasn't sure if I was right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Not sure how I screwed that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Oh thanks...wasn't sure if I was right or not. Just remember that diffluence doesn't necessarily mean there is net divergence. You actually have speed convergence there coming out of the base of the trough as the winds weaken and the air "piles up". You can plot the div/conv on the Plym Vortex site I believe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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