Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[weathafella]

You're right.

In light of Jerry's age, I should withhold my opinion if it so happens to be contrary to his.

I agree.

Remember when I was too old to remember you were Brett when we bumped into each other on the street and I introduced you to my family as Zeus?...lol

[Ginx snewx]

That may be the example we are looking for, as to why we want this block.

1970/71 is why I want it.

[powderfreak]

Yeah upslope snows that affect about 0.01% of the population can probably have a dedicated thread...also because its a different phenomenon than synoptic snows. This retrograde solution would actually affect a large portion of Maine and potentially NH and even N MA.

I completely agree... though there isn't a huge population on this board of people in the upslope region, you'd be surprised at how many people this does effect up here. Most of these communities are bedroom communities for the BTV area. Chittenden County is the most populated county in VT (by far, its not even close to other counties) and it often takes the brunt of upslope snow. I'm just used to it because upslope gets a lot of media play around here since it does effect I-89 near Burlington and the Burlington suburbs (if you can call them that).

You can't tell me that that area of northeastern Maine has *that* many more people than this area of VT. I do agree that we can have a separate thread for it, though you can't really say that upslope associated with this storm would be "non-synoptic" snows... it is synoptic moisture and synoptic features that is allowing for snow to work its way back down into NNE on these model runs.

Bottom line is the weenies in SNE could care less if NNE gets snow and their backyard doesn't, haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 hours ago there was no chance, today it an off shore bomb backing up to what the Euro showed a couple of days ago. Writing this off today is silly, a tweak here a tweak there and we have a 81or ECM better scenario. Exciting model runs from now until Sunday, keep in the back of your mind what happened last year with the Dec KU, when it comes to modeling.

I think we have a window of about 24 hrs to trend this.

[dryslot]

yeah. might be time to post exclusively in the NNE thread.

Good thing i can sense the humour in your tone...........

[40/70 Benchmark]

You're right.

In light of Jerry's age, I should withhold my opinion if it so happens to be contrary to his.

I was being facetious.

[weatherwiz]

1970/71 is why I want it.

Still not totally out of the question that can be a top analog for this year.

[powderfreak]

thankfully i think most people understand the deal. of course, if it went that way all winter, different story.

Yeah and I wouldn't wish that on anyone... we were all in the same boat last year so there were no "civil wars" like there have been in years past. I think SNE even had some storm threads titled "Civil War" lol.

You look to be in the best spot out there on the Cape... all things considered I think there's a darn good chance you get in on some snow. I could envision a scenario in which Kevin and Will are tipping chairs while the Cape, Boston area, and NE MA are getting 3-6" of wind-blown fluff.

I still like the idea of snowfall from these systems starting down by the Canal and then heading/spreading north in a cone-like fashion.

[weathafella]

I think we have a window of about 24 hrs to trend this.

If model runs go status quo, I'd add 24 hours to that. By that time, all players will be over land in NOAM.

[moneypitmike]

100 miles 5 days out is close. 100 miles further west and we snow like crazy.

Some of us need 200 miles.

[weathafella]

Very short lived N Plains torch on this run. Cold reloading.

[ORH_wxman]

I completely agree... though there isn't a huge population on this board of people in the upslope region, you'd be surprised at how many people this does effect up here. Most of these communities are bedroom communities for the BTV area. Chittenden County is the most populated county in VT (by far, its not even close to other counties) and it often takes the brunt of upslope snow. I'm just used to it because upslope gets a lot of media play around here since it does effect I-89 near Burlington and the Burlington suburbs (if you can call them that).

You can't tell me that that area of northeastern Maine has *that* many more people than this area of VT. I do agree that we can have a separate thread for it, though you can't really say that upslope associated with this storm would be "non-synoptic" snows... it is synoptic moisture and synoptic features that is allowing for snow to work its way back down into NNE on these model runs.

Bottom line is the weenies in SNE could care less if NNE gets snow and their backyard doesn't, haha

Well northeastern ME? Yeah of course...but we are talking coastal ME near PWM and such.

We have more posters on here in ME and NH than upslope country near BTV as much as I feel your sympathy for the heavily populated bedroom communities of Chittenden county...and while there are synoptic setups for upslope snow, make no mistake, its a mesoscale phenomenon. Same deal with LES...you have synoptic setups for it, but its a mesoscale phenomenon.

And yes, we are aware you get more snow than us and we will all cry tonight knowing that Jay Peak is going to get a foot of powder on a NW wind.

[Ginx snewx]

I think we have a window of about 24 hrs to trend this.

Hmm maybe until 0z sat night, last winter taught me a great deal about the Euro and closed ULLs

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah and I wouldn't wish that on anyone... we were all in the same boat last year so there were no "civil wars" like there have been in years past. I think SNE even had some storm threads titled "Civil War" lol.

You look to be in the best spot out there on the Cape... all things considered I think there's a darn good chance you get in on some snow. I could envision a scenario in which Kevin and Will are tipping chairs while the Cape, Boston area, and NE MA are getting 3-6" of wind-blown fluff.

I still like the idea of snowfall from these systems starting down by the Canal and then heading/spreading north in a cone-like fashion.

i'd be content with some flurries flying.

[Zeus]

I agree.

Remember when I was too old to remember you were Brett when we bumped into each other on the street and I introduced you to my family as Zeus?...lol

Priceless.

I ended up trying Superfusion's sushi, by the way. The amount of tuna they pack into a basic tuna roll is exceptional. Their menu was a little too heavy on cooked options for me, though; I like it raw.

As for this storm, I just get the feeling we're dealing with an asymptote. Not unlike the storm last year -- for which I carpetbagged down to my mother's place in central New Jersey -- wherein the distance between feast and famine was very small. There were minor fluctuations even to the tune of 50 miles 2 days out that had implications of flurries versus feet, but ultimately the writing was on the wall that the beast could only bend so much, and it wasn't going to work its way here.

I just don't figure it can bend to us, from what I've gathered this far. It goes without saying that I'd love to be wrong.

I've put my disrespectful opinion in a smaller font, here, so your 64-year-old eyes cannot read it.

[ORH_wxman]

i'd be content with some flurries flying.

I think all of us will at least see that. Pretty hard not to if a ULL is spinning over head for days. Hopefully we can get the retrograde system to trend enough to give a nice event...even if its not a monster storm.

[weathafella]

Most of ME has snow or flurries for a week straight....

[moneypitmike]

If the Euro is right verbatim we're gonna get a serious overrunning snow event between 12/10-15.

Hey, that's only ten days away. Who woulda thought? lol

[MaineJayhawk]

If the Euro is right verbatim we're gonna get a serious overrunning snow event between 12/10-15.

Perhaps 12/12 or 12/13?

Hmmmmmm .... that timeframe is being targeted.

[dryslot]

Most of ME has snow or flurries for a week straight....

lol.........I could only hope that would be the case Jerry.......

[weathafella]

Overall a nice run for sustained winter and if it is at the end of the run a perfect setup for a snow for us.

[SouthCoastMA]

I haven't had a chance to glance at the models yet, but with all the talk about 'retrograding', how does this compare synoptically to the storm we had last January, which clobbered NE Mass with warning criteria snows.. IIRC, that storm pinwheeled WSW hundreds of miles from a position well east of Nova Scotia.

[weathafella]

I haven't had a chance to glance at the models yet, but with all the talk about 'retrograding', how does this compare synoptically to the storm we had last January, which clobbered NE Mass with warning criteria snows.. IIRC, that storm pinwheeled WSW hundreds of miles from a position well east of Nova Scotia.

That was New Years. Similarities but block now appears even stronger to me.

[Bostonseminole]

If the Euro is right verbatim we're gonna get a serious overrunning snow event between 12/10-15.

5 days?

[WeatherX]

Congrats Havana?

[powderfreak]

Well northeastern ME? Yeah of course...but we are talking coastal ME near PWM and such.

We have more posters on here in ME and NH than upslope country near BTV as much as I feel your sympathy for the heavily populated bedroom communities of Chittenden county...and while there are synoptic setups for upslope snow, make no mistake, its a mesoscale phenomenon. Same deal with LES...you have synoptic setups for it, but its a mesoscale phenomenon.

And yes, we are aware you get more snow than us and we will all cry tonight knowing that Jay Peak is going to get a foot of powder on a NW wind.

I really hope you get some snow, man. Sounds very similar to when you address Pete in the heavily populated eastern slope above 1,400ft lol.

[free_man]

 There was a home for sale in Goffstown, NH on Mt. Uncannonuc near 1190' .   10 minutes from downtown MHT.         They should put that information in the reality ads for weenies.

[Ginx snewx]

I really hope you get some snow, man. Sounds very similar to when you address Pete in the heavily populated eastern slope above 1,400ft lol.

Petes gonna see snow tonight plastering icy roads snow.

[dryslot]

There was a home for sale in Goffstown, NH on Mt. Uncannonuc near 1290' .   10 minutes from downtown MHT.         They should put that information in the reality ads for weenies.

Only 1.......lol

[eduggs]

12z makes at least 3 cycles in a row that the NAM has strengthened/sharpened the critical 500mb s/w moving through the Midwest at 72hrs.

The 12z CMC is also stronger with this feature, though not as threatening.

12z Euro continuing to give some hope, though no overwhelming trends.

GFS has some s/w energy and isn't terrible, but not much fun either.

0z nogaps was boring.

12z UKMET looks terrible.

Is this basically the summary of where we're at?

So... Possible light snow this weekend with the clipper from the ohio valley through the mid-Atlantic.

Potential ocean storm impact for E and NE portions of New England if things go right.

Several chances for snow in the far north.

Flurries likely for everyone.

This is just where we want things for tracking. Low expectations but high potential.