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Paid the tolls...moving into winter

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I wasn't really following guidance, but it added confidence. It started with showing a pattern change by the third week of Nov, and like I said, I was thinking (hoping) we could be in a favorable pattern by Dec 1.

Is there really any difference of Dec 1st vs Dec 4th?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Not much can happen until that UL gets out of the way.

If its like the GFS depiction, yes. But the NAM and the Euro and the GGEM have much more intriguing possibilities since the orientation of the ULL is a bit different on them. The Euro gave you an advisory event last night.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

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Well, that is my point......if you expected this to have been "at least a SECS" based upon the day 8+ GFS, then you should join the Metfan4life Meterological Society (MMS).

WTF Ray lol. I never said I "expected" anything of this storm. I was making a joke about the potential the GFS (and the Euro) has shown in the long range, which is characteristic of this time of the year anyway.

I think we now know who is really distraught over the lack of snow :lol:

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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If its like the GFS depiction, yes. But the NAM and the Euro and the GGEM have much more intriguing possibilities since the orientation of the ULL is a bit different on them. The Euro gave you an advisory event last night.

I'll take my chances with a NAM/Euro/GGEM combo rather than the GFS which right now appears to be somewhat of an outlier. If the 12z euro really doesn't resemble the GFS much at all, mainly with the ULL than it may be safe to not really toss the GFS but to lean against the GFS solution.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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If its like the GFS depiction, yes. But the NAM and the Euro and the GGEM have much more intriguing possibilities since the orientation of the ULL is a bit different on them. The Euro gave you an advisory event last night.

The developments over the course of the past 12 hrs have been positive....I dunno, maybe I've been reading Kev's posts too much.....

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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WTF Ray lol. I never said I "expected" anything of this storm. I was making a joke about the potential the GFS (and the Euro) has shown in the long range, which is characteristic of this time of the year anyway.

I think we now know who is really distraught over the lack of snow :lol:

No, I'm fine....you were just coming off as whiny today, which is why I misunderstood that post.

I read it within the context of your preceeding posts.

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dryslot

dryslot

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EURO, NAM and GEM trended significantly positively and the GFS trended subtley positively, which I feel is crucial because we are just now emerging from fantasy range.

Next 3-4 cycles should be telling to if we are going to track a legit threat or threats or we continue cold and dry.......

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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Yeah...plus we were talking about a general pattern change like 2-3 weeks in advance so people start dreaming of snow events but in reality we had to remember they are 15-20 days away...so when 10-12 days go by and the threats are still pretty far out in the long range, it seems as if they will never occur.

But after all the talk, we step back and find ourselves merely at the 1st of December. Its not like we are about to hit Christmas Eve. Though in some fairness, the pattern was delayed slightly...we thought it might be go time more around 11/28 vs 12/3 after this front moves through, but that wasn't particularly shocking given the lead time we were dealing with.

But bottom line, we mentioned that the first 10 days of December would feature some legit threats and I do not think there is much evidence on guidance to change that thinking.

And we are about to realize one important thing that we haven't had yet...actual sustained cold temps

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Some interesting trends on the 12z Euro....first s/w trended stronger from 00z, but also faster...the faster part isn't very good since it leaves less time for the NE vortex to relax a bit.

However, of more interest for the Maine folks and even N NH, it retrogrades a little low around 72h and produces advisory snows across much of the state. It even gets some light snow down to near KGAY.

Another item of note is that the hudson bay vortex is further west so it might give more room for our NE vortex to retrograde later on. We'll have to see on that.

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