HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Wow, impressed by the 00z model suite... Most deterministic guidance have a dreamy spring blue snow type solution centered on D8 - which is unfortunately way out there in time beyond determinism. But one thing we can do is assess favorability, and there is indeed a significant event signaled. This could work out the best of both worlds if these teleconnectors hold. CDC has a strong 7 day PNA spike that descended negative by week 2, and this is more than less flagged by CPC as well. It's nice to have the two agencies on the same page. The NAO is also negative leading, but in the process of rising. This brings us back to the Archembault signal I was describing a few days ago, and it is impressive to me that this signal is holding... If things break right, we have a big hurrah, followed a week later by a mass field adjustment into real spring...the kind that puts 70+ into ALB with Boston at 48F in fog ...but seriously, perhaps one last big deal and then truer seasonal recovery gets under way. Perfect ending. Let the elastic band snap and on to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Were you snuggling up with your BF?? Yea, you and I had some good times tgth, Scoot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Perfect ending. Let the elastic band snap and on to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Yea, you and I had some good times tgth, Scoot... True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 00z Euro destroys ORH and esp just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 00z Euro destroys TOL and just to the north. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Fixed If that storm verified, it would be an absolute tail pipe sucker for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 If that storm verified, it would be an absolute tail pipe sucker for you. I'd snow from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Wow the 00z suite really delivered. Euro would be awesome. Too bad this is all in the day 6-9 range right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'd snow from that You'd probably flip after some snow. A classic tip blue snowbomb for Jolly Cholly HubbDave. Hopefully we can get that further se, because it's kind of a cold systen, but usually not the greatest when low tracks to LI and then over RI/SE mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Taunton AFD throws us a bone NEVERTHELESS THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z GUID FORA POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM AND SIGNIFICANT QPF TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I hope it stays south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 You'd probably flip after some snow. A classic tip blue snowbomb for Jolly Cholly HubbDave. Hopefully we can get that further se, because it's kind of a cold systen, but usually not the greatest when low tracks to LI and then over RI/SE mass. If I may dork out for a moment .... That starts out way beneath 0c at 850, and then dynamically goes birzirk! I bet it started as snow, went to S+ with an insane IB, then went to IP and brief R for about 10 minutes ....a flash of lightning and a huge wall reverberating thunder boom heralds in a flash over to S++ that ends in the upper 20's as the troposphere folds and drills big mid-level dynamical cold right down to his basement. That's my synoptic impression off just the ECM. ...Pointless as it may be for this time range, but nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Will I was just thinking.. how the hell did a foot accumulatein orh on may 7?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'll be in FL (or en route home in the Carolinas by then), but I still want it to nail us here. Does the Euro hit ALB? You'd probably flip after some snow. A classic tip blue snowbomb for Jolly Cholly HubbDave. Hopefully we can get that further se, because it's kind of a cold systen, but usually not the greatest when low tracks to LI and then over RI/SE mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 It I may dork out for a moment .... That starts out way beneath 0c at 850, and then dynamically goes birzirk! I bet it started as snow, went to S+ with an insane IB, then went to IP and brief R for about 10 minutes ....a flash of lightning and a huge wall reverberating thunder boom heralds in a a flash over to S++ that ends in the upper 20's as the troposphere folds and drills big mid-level dynamical cold right down to his basement. That's my synoptic impression off just the ECM. ...Pointless as it may be for this time range, but nonetheless. BY all means..lol. Yeah the dynamics are pretty impressive, but we are so far out there. It could rain for all we know..lol. At least we have some interesting wx on the horizon..even it's more or less liquid. There is some very weak blocking up by Hudson bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 If that storm verified, it would be an absolute tail pipe sucker for you. Really? The distance from Worcester to Tolland would be enough to make that much of a difference? I suppose that means I would be in a monsoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I hope it stays south.. Not me. Early April snow is fun, doesn't last long, and seems to induce faster melting of the old snowpack. Also, recent years have been pretty slack for April snow, compared to the rest of my Maine experience. Snowstorms of 6" or greater: BGR (73-75): 2 in 3 yr FKent(76-85): 4 in 10 yr Gard.(86-98): 5 in 13 yr MBY:(99-10): 2 in 12 yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I'll be in FL (or en route home in the Carolinas by then), but I still want it to nail us here. Does the Euro hit ALB? Nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 BY all means..lol. Yeah the dynamics are pretty impressive, but we are so far out there. It could rain for all we know..lol. At least we have some interesting wx on the horizon..even it's more or less liquid. Ther eis some very weak blocking up by Hudson bay. EC ensemble mean has the low over Western Ohio lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Really? The distance from Worcester to Tolland would be enough to make that much of a difference? I suppose that means I would be in a monsoon? It pulls in a tongue of warmer air at 850, but he would probably do well at first. It's so far away, but just having some fun with the models. Hopefully 12z runs continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 EC ensemble mean has the low over Western Ohio lol. GFS ensembles are further west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 GFS ensembles are further west as well. too many signals for warm and west for me to get excited about this one, yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 too many signals for warm and west for me to get excited about this one, yet no one should be "excited" lol... I think the key here is just recognition for enhanced threat of any kind. As Scott said, at least it is something other than the typical eventless 40 day spring nightmare. That said, the far outism of the system throws any plausibility equally so one should not bias their opinion either way. But that's the way I look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Not me. Early April snow is fun, doesn't last long, and seems to induce faster melting of the old snowpack. Also, recent years have been pretty slack for April snow, compared to the rest of my Maine experience. Snowstorms of 6" or greater: BGR (73-75): 2 in 3 yr FKent(76-85): 4 in 10 yr Gard.(86-98): 5 in 13 yr MBY:(99-10): 2 in 12 yr I still hope it stays south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 no one should "excited" lol... I think the key here is just recognition for enhanced threat of any kind. As Scott said, at least it is something other than the typical eventless 40 day spring nightmare. I definitely think there is a pretty good chance of a significant storm...the signals are strong for it. I just think the chances are more on the rain side of things rather than the snow side of things for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 GFS ensembles are further west as well. I think this is a case where the ensemble averaging results in a lower amplitude wave, thus not digging as much and the surface low taking a track to the ENE across the nation (and NW of the op track that's east of the Apps). Take a look at the spreads just explode over just 12 to 24 hours, right in the base of the trough, indicating disagreement in amplitude. Given the pattern change toward the block breaking down, I'd be more concerned about this digging too much and sending the low straight north up the Hudson or west. I think this wave will gain plenty of amplitude in the Ohio Valley and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 no one should be "excited" lol... I think the key here is just recognition for enhanced threat of any kind. As Scott said, at least it is something other than the typical eventless 40 day spring nightmare. That said, the far outism of the system throws any plausibility equally so one should not bias their opinion either way. But that's the way I look at it. I'm excited! 6in/hr thundersnow en route for everyone! Widespread 2-3 feet of tree-crushing roof-collapsing blue snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Even if it doesn't work out in an optimal sense for people's back yards, this is a lot more interesting that discussing 65F and whether we will have afternoon showers with two brief rumbles of thunder for Paul. That is where we will find ourselves a month from now. It pulls in a tongue of warmer air at 850, but he would probably do well at first. It's so far away, but just having some fun with the models. Hopefully 12z runs continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Perfect ending. Let the elastic band snap and on to spring. agree! a dream scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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