Mr Torchey Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I have not looked but is there a real threat for an interior blue bomb? That would be awesome...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z GFS is pretty impressive for the interior on Mar 30-31...probably a moderate snowstorm. Its cold at the sfc too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z GFS is pretty impressive for the interior on Mar 30-31...probably a moderate snowstorm. Its cold at the sfc too. It's pretty cold near BOS too, looking at the soundings. I still don't know what to make of it, but the s/w is gently coming in a little stronger and further south with each run. GFS now tries to dig for oil in the Gulf with the second system and cuts that system off down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 It's pretty cold near BOS too, looking at the soundings. I still don't know what to make of it, but the s/w is gently coming in a little stronger and further south with each run. GFS now tries to dig for oil in the Gulf with the second system and cuts that system off down there. Having the Euro and its ensemble trend toward the GFS on the Mar 30-31 system gives a bit more confidence that the trend might be real. However, given the time frame, still can't really expect much yet. I'd still like to see the dynamics a bit more vigorous...GFS at 18z trended that way, but still could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Having the Euro and its ensemble trend toward the GFS on the Mar 30-31 system gives a bit more confidence that the trend might be real. However, given the time frame, still can't really expect much yet. I'd still like to see the dynamics a bit more vigorous...GFS at 18z trended that way, but still could be better. If that s/w can come a little further south, it would be a nice NJ model nuke as John would like to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Having the Euro and its ensemble trend toward the GFS on the Mar 30-31 system gives a bit more confidence that the trend might be real. However, given the time frame, still can't really expect much yet. I'd still like to see the dynamics a bit more vigorous...GFS at 18z trended that way, but still could be better. What would need to see happen for it to become more vigorous? More separation of the 500 lows? Diggier 500 low? Would we want kind of a low reformation on the coast from OHIO or would we want the primary to head for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 What would need to see happen for it to become more vigorous? More separation of the 500 lows? Diggier 500 low? Would we want kind of a low reformation on the coast from OHIO or would we want the primary to head for the coast? Keep the s/w more potent as it slides underneath SNE...it will redevelop the primary into a nice little nuke off NJ that tracks NE past the Cape. But that s/w probably needs a little more room to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 At home our local "outhouse through the ice" is still not through. 2 years ago it broke through on 3/20, last year on 3/13 We guessed today at 12:15PM, but I'm guessing it is still on top of the ice. (hick town thing....cash prizes, and beef) I told you that was way to early. Ice isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Maybe 4/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z ensembles definitely like the Mar 30 potential more than the Apr 1-2 storm. It still shows both in the mean, but the 30th is way more defined now. It'll be interesting if that's the event that ends up doing something more significant because it seems as if it has the least room for really amplifying...but it just might have enough space to pull a little miller B nuke on us. I'm still kind of skeptical though given the two other waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z ensembles definitely like the Mar 30 potential more than the Apr 1-2 storm. It still shows both in the mean, but the 30th is way more defined now. It'll be interesting if that's the event that ends up doing something more significant because it seems as if it has the least room for really amplifying...but it just might have enough space to pull a little miller B nuke on us. I'm still kind of skeptical though given the two other waves. My Birthday storm 5-8" of school cancelling, crocus crushing blue snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The April 82 was so impressive that it gave me 8" on the south shore of Long Island. The April 6, 1982 KU was the most impressive from 4/1 -> IMO because it was like a mid Winter storm (at least inland). Dry blowing snow and 20F at noon. That is just crazy anomalous. So if you are quantifying them by more than just max. snowfall then that storm was more freakish than 4/1/97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z ensembles definitely like the Mar 30 potential more than the Apr 1-2 storm. It still shows both in the mean, but the 30th is way more defined now. It'll be interesting if that's the event that ends up doing something more significant because it seems as if it has the least room for really amplifying...but it just might have enough space to pull a little miller B nuke on us. I'm still kind of skeptical though given the two other waves. I'm hoping for the 30th to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I told you that was way to early. Ice isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Maybe 4/20. I pushed for March 28, but my wife thought that was too late. Compromise ftl. No ice fishing for the last week or so... 600+ lb outhouse that is used for a community funsdraiser / fire dept ice rescue training thing 28.2F tasty spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 My Birthday storm 5-8" of school cancelling, crocus crushing blue snow MCAS on both those days plus then I would need to go in on a Saturday or 2... No snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 When you think about it, the single most important factor re: snow chances from the storm may not have anything to do with meteorology. It is what time if the day does the bulk of it fall. At least in the lowlands.. Pete will get destroyed regardless. The sun is ugly now.... Wiped out the 1.4" of powder yesterday in like 90 minutes with temperatures not yet even over 32F. Having the Euro and its ensemble trend toward the GFS on the Mar 30-31 system gives a bit more confidence that the trend might be real. However, given the time frame, still can't really expect much yet. I'd still like to see the dynamics a bit more vigorous...GFS at 18z trended that way, but still could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 When you think about it, the single most important factor re: snow chances from the storm may not have anything to do with meteorology. It is what time if the day does the bulk of it fall. At least in the lowlands.. Pete will get destroyed regardless. The sun is ugly now.... Wiped out the 1.4" of powder yesterday in like 90 minutes with temperatures not yet even over 32F. Very good point. Night time is the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 When you think about it, the single most important factor re: snow chances from the storm may not have anything to do with meteorology. It is what time if the day does the bulk of it fall. At least in the lowlands.. Pete will get destroyed regardless. The sun is ugly now.... Wiped out the 1.4" of powder yesterday in like 90 minutes with temperatures not yet even over 32F. I'm going to have to keep tabs on what's going on here when I'm away as I don't want to miss my chance to say "I told you so" when an April Bomb drops a crippling snowfall. Also, don't encourage Will to make yet another unprovoked attack on me.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 At least you are traveling in the right direction. I'm going to have to keep tabs on what's going on here when I'm away as I don't want to miss my chance to say "I told you so" when an April Bomb drops a crippling snowfall. Also, don't encourage Will to make yet another unprovoked attack on me.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I'm going to have to keep tabs on what's going on here when I'm away as I don't want to miss my chance to say "I told you so" when an April Bomb drops a crippling snowfall. Also, don't encourage Will to make yet another unprovoked attack on me.lol I saw that and read it twice... not sure if he meant what he wrote... Premonition on the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I saw that and read it twice... not sure if he meant what he wrote... Premonition on the way? LOL. I wonder if we're talking about the same infraction. What post are you thinking of? As for the premonition, it won't surprise me in the least if it comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 When you think about it, the single most important factor re: snow chances from the storm may not have anything to do with meteorology. It is what time if the day does the bulk of it fall. At least in the lowlands.. Pete will get destroyed regardless. The sun is ugly now.... Wiped out the 1.4" of powder yesterday in like 90 minutes with temperatures not yet even over 32F. If the precipitation intensity is mostly moderate or light during the storm, then the difference between day and night is huge. If its very heavy precip falling, then it can pile up in the daytime as the very deep moisture and intense snow will pretty much block out all the solar insolation. I mentioned to Scott (coastalwx) how April 28-29, 1987 had more than half of the 17" accumulate during the daylight hours of the 28th...and that was almost May, lol. I think he posted the metar further back. It was falling so heavy that it didn't matter much. But for the bulk of these events, we don't see precip rates like that, so it definitely helps to have it at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 LOL. I wonder if we're talking about the same infraction. What post are you thinking of? As for the premonition, it won't surprise me in the least if it comes to pass. Something like you have totals that are out of whack with what common sense says they should be... I think he meant he understands you live in a special place wrt snow/cold, even for "just" 1400', etc. Common sense says you should not get 130" or whatever of snow, but your glen-ness allows for it? I guess. Not meaning to a) speak for Will, or stir up a hornet's nest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Something like you have totals that are out of whack with what common sense says they should be... I think he meant he understands you live in a special place wrt snow/cold, even for "just" 1400', etc. Common sense says you should not get 130" or whatever of snow, but your glen-ness allows for it? I guess. Not meaning to a) speak for Will, or stir up a hornet's nest LOl, yep that's the one. Lot's of 100+" Winters here as per the defunct Chesterfield Co-Op. I build houses for a living, it requires advanced measuring skills. I'm pretty confident about my ability to accurately measure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 LOl, yep that's the one. Lot's of 100+" Winters here as per the defunct Chesterfield Co-Op. I build houses for a living, it requires advanced measuring skills. I'm pretty confident about my ability to accurately measure snow. The house you build are kinda fugly. I hope it is the design and not slant stick mistakes... We set up the scouts first aluminum derby track tonight. Very sweet, fast track. We had poor measuring skills. Took a while to get it straight. I really hope at least one good spring snow hits us. Last week was a good appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 26/4 here. Brrrrr... May as well snow if it's gonna' be this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Here are a few pictures to inspire from last April. The one with the flowers is from 4/26 I think and the other two are from 4/28 when we got about 11 inches. It was our biggest snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 models must be great tonight lol...6 users on in prime model time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 models must be great tonight lol...6 users on in prime model time Daylight savings time...the GFS is only just coming out. It looks a shade further north with the Mar 30 system and its still quite robust. It actually reminds me a tad of that system we just had on Monday with the cold air out ahead of it. So even though it initially tracks the primary decently north, it has a solid shot of WAA snow. It still doesn't like the Apr 1-2 system that much but its a lot closer to a phase this run vs 18z. Not worth staying up for the Euro this far out. Hopefully one of these threats will still look good by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Daylight savings time...the GFS is only just coming out. It looks a shade further north with the Mar 30 system and its still quite robust. It actually reminds me a tad of that system we just had on Monday with the cold air out ahead of it. So even though it initially tracks the primary decently north, it has a solid shot of WAA snow. It still doesn't like the Apr 1-2 system that much but its a lot closer to a phase this run vs 18z. Not worth staying up for the Euro this far out. Hopefully one of these threats will still look good by early next week. It looks as if even I get snow from the 0z GFS, would be an incredible to have snow here on 3/30 from a SW flow event but this block has ushered in an unseasonably cold airmass. Will, do you believe the CAD the GFS is showing around 114? Could this system trend a lot warmer with the primary so far north and secondary development looking to be much more limited than initially thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 00z GFS is inches away from a huge snow bomb 4/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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