Professional Lurker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Just got in from taking a dozen runs. Yeah, I should be working, but it looked sooooo good out there. I wasn't disappointed! Honestly some of the best snow of March out on the hill. I guess because its been so cold and dry, the snow groomed out amazing. One more day here, come and get it while you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Well most of the scenarios that have had a large system on Apr 1-2 have had very little of anything on the 30th hinting that the pattern for a larger system would likely be better if we can keep the flow more zonal out ahead of it...it will give it a chance to amplify. If the 3/30 system sort of nukes out, it will tend to have a little more NW flow behind it which limits the ability for the 2nd system to amplify. That's just one quick and simple explanation...there's smaller factors too that we cannot possibly decipher yet that will also play a role. (i.e just how much phasing, strength of vort max, etc) Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Just got in from taking a dozen runs. Yeah, I should be working, but it looked sooooo good out there. I wasn't disappointed! Honestly some of the best snow of March out on the hill. I guess because its been so cold and dry, the snow groomed out amazing. One more day here, come and get it while you can! Awesome. Sadly, just doing the Wawa thing today later on... time/family make it hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I know several have posted that it is more difficult this time of year to see storms more than a day or 2 away with any accuracy. Why is it easier in the winter? Is it just the cold? Or are things moving faster? The winter has longer wavelengths which generally makes a 3-5 days forecast more accurate than in the spring or summer. It shows up quite well on model verification scores as well. When the wavelengths shorten and the jet becomes weaker overall, other factors such as convection and other mesoscale aspects can affect the flow more drastically...with a much stronger jet in the winter, jet dynamics tend to be the overwhelming factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Awesome. Sadly, just doing the Wawa thing today later on... time/family make it hard You have to blow off work and come to Okemo on April 1st... $10 and 3 non-perishables, cant beat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The winter has longer wavelengths which generally makes a 3-5 days forecast more accurate than in the spring or summer. It shows up quite well on model verification scores as well. When the wavelengths shorten and the jet becomes weaker overall, other factors such as convection and other mesoscale aspects can affect the flow more drastically...with a much stronger jet in the winter, jet dynamics tend to be the overwhelming factor. Thank you. The rope shakes faster in the spring/summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I'm not sure if the GFS op solution of making the s/w just plummet into the Gulf, spinning west of Tampa, makes any sense. I suppose it's not impossible, but it looks like it's just too cutoff from the flow imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I don't know what I'm looking at of this Euro run - it's like it is step wise lurching back and forth with bad panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I don't know what I'm looking at of this Euro run - it's like it is step wise lurching back and forth with bad panels. It's getting a shot of some srn energy. Looks like a gulf wave with a weak primary in the lower OH valley. This is the first low, we're talking about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The euro take's the first wave is moves it just off of NC, as the dynamics and forst s/w move well north of it. However, a second piece of energy (this was storm #2 on the models) comes down just in time and appears to try and re-energize the low off of NC. We'll see what later panels do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The euro take's the first wave is moves it just off of NC, as the dynamics and forst s/w move well north of it. However, a second piece of energy (this was storm #2 on the models) comes down just in time and appears to try and re-energize the low off of NC. We'll see what later panels do. I predict with 100% certitude they will get teasingly close while managing to do nothing at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 April 1st. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Wow. Probably won't happen, but....wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 April 1st. Boom. 984mb E of the Cape. Impressive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Wow. Probably won't happen, but....wow. Pete repete white dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 984mb E of the Cape. Impressive run. Pretty much exactly what needs to happen. First low weakens as the dynamics lift up and shear out, but the second s/w rounds the bend, digs the trough, and re-develops the low near NC, moving east of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Pete repete white dream? It's almost painful to see, but one can hope...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Pretty much exactly what needs to happen. First low weakens as the dynamics lift up and shear out, but the second s/w rounds the bend, digs the trough, and re-develops the low near NC, moving east of the Cape. It actually taps some of the moisture leftover from the first low so we see precip well out ahead of the redeveloping bomb...almost a PRE event or inverted trough. Then it tightens up into a commahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Holy Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Wow. Probably won't happen, but....wow. Kidding aside ... I have a better feeling on this than that Scott. Thing is, we've been advertising this for days as it sits ideally in at minimum a quasi-Archambault era with the modalities of the mass fields. That is still true... If you want to argue details, I agree - pointless to do so... But I believe the pattern et al will err on the side of more amplitude during that 4 to 5 day span of 3/28 through 4/3, This behavior in the runs since a day and half ago is no different than the behavior I saw since Dec 25th-ism of 'will it or won't it' appearance cycling to disappearance in the middle and extended ranges - but during that span we were over 50% success regardless. That, and these teleconnectors tell me heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Sign me up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 It actually taps some of the moisture leftover from the first low so we see precip well out ahead of the redeveloping bomb...almost a PRE event or inverted trough. Then it tightens up into a commahead. I love that look on the MSLP progs when you see such a widespread area of elongated low pressure, as a strong piece of energy rounds the bend. You know it's going to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Kidding aside ... I have a better feeling on this than that Scott. Thing is, we've been advertising this for days as it sits ideally in at minimum a quasi-Archambault era with the modalities of the mass fields. That is still true... If you want to argue details, I agree - pointless to do so... But I believe the pattern et al will err on the side of more amplitude during that 4 to 5 day span of 3/28 through 4/3, This behavior in the runs since a day and half ago is no different than the behavior I saw since Dec 25th-ism of 'will it or won't it' appearance cycling to disappearance in the middle and extended ranges - but during that span we were over 50% success regardless. That, and these teleconnectors tell me heads up. Yeah I agree something will happen, but that's a pretty sweet run for eastern mass. I think one has to be aware of the classic d6 storm that sucks you in, but yes fun to look at, and plausible of a significant low near the eastern seaboard. No arguments here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Folks, I'd also suggest considering that Euro may be in the process of dumping the first system entirely in lieu of a much more powerful wave-length restrictive follow-up system that takes proxy on the whole of the mass fields... Fancy schmalk for it wouldn't shock me if the lead system all but disappears in future runs and we start honing the April 2 deal, which is the heavily statistically favored system to begin with... BTW, sorry I can't make it to tonight Woburn thing... I have a previous engagement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Folks, I'd also suggest considering that Euro may be in the process of dumping the first system entirely in lieu of a much more powerful wave-length restrictive follow-up system that takes proxy on the whole of the mass fields... Fancy schmalk for it wouldn't shock me if the lead system all but disappears in future runs and we start honing the April 2 deal, which is the heavily statistically favored system to begin with... BTW, sorry I can't make it to tonight Woburn thing... I have a previous engagement. I'd pretty much agree with this for the most part. I've definitely been leery of that first wave for a couple days now...just not in a good spot for amplification. The 2nd wave certainly has more going for it in the overall scheme of the synoptic pattern but of course we know that doesn't guarantee anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Folks, I'd also suggest considering that Euro may be in the process of dumping the first system entirely in lieu of a much more powerful wave-length restrictive follow-up system that takes proxy on the whole of the mass fields... Fancy schmalk for it wouldn't shock me if the lead system all but disappears in future runs and we start honing the April 2 deal, which is the heavily statistically favored system to begin with... BTW, sorry I can't make it to tonight Woburn thing... I have a previous engagement. I know models have been all over the place, but it would make sense from a met standpoint. I know Will made a post about how this s/w was in a funny spot for amplification..and it kind of is. This PV is causing quite a bit of nw flow, and as the s/w for storm 1 approaches, we already see a strong s/w trying to dive south on the backside of this trough. So when that happens, it just mucks all the good dynamics for the storm 1 s/w and now we have a loaded gun for this next s/w to round the bend and tap unused fuel in the form of baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yeah, again ... NCEP echoes my own sentiments for next weekend: ...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS... HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OF ECMWF ENS MEANS/ LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS AND THE 06Z RUN OF GFS. OVERALL TREND OF THE PACIFIC FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE WITH SUGGESTION OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE DEVELPMENT MID TO LATE PERIOD WITH EPAC/WCT COAST RIDGING ALLOWING FOR MORE DOWNSTREAM AMPLITUDE. LATEST 06Z GFS OFFERS THE BEST COMPROMISE MID TO LATE PERIOD BETWEEN THE EXTREMES OF AMPLITUDE AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z CMC AND THE FLATTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW OF ECMWF. UPDATED PROGS INCORPORATE A LARGE DEGREE OF THE 06Z GFS DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT. MAIN EFFECT IS THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SERN CONS AND ITS EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST DAYS 6 FRI/SAT TORDS A BIT DEEPER SOLUTION THAN EARLIER PRELIMS. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN I mean they more than less get to the same conclusion albeit perhaps somewhat differently... But western ridge and subsequent downstream N/A trough response is pegged timing wise on the PNA relay into conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Oh yeah well Ukies got the 984mb of the South Carolina coast. Take that Euro!! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Oh yeah well Ukies got the 984mb of the South Carolina coast. Take that Euro!! http://www.meteo.psu...12z/ukloop.html Ukie looks like it has the first event as pretty significant here, but I don't really believe it. It looks like it gets both waves to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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