Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Threat Thread


ski MRG

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 990
  • Created
  • Last Reply

At least we get a 300 hour hit on the GFS and the northern New England mountains get some great upslope.

I have to see it well be disappointing to see 2 weeks of cold go to waste if we can't get a good snow event out of it... at least there's potential... but realizing that may be a tough proposition.

yeah they probably won't see the classic dump of snow they might want but you have to think the traditional w/nw facing spots make out pretty well. that, plus plenty of cold should jump start the ski season nicely for most of NNE.

hopefully we aren't in a position where things go dry and cold for too long. personally, i like that more than dry and warm but would be nice to at least sneak out some kind of event, regardless of size.

12z gefs mean is a less robust with the blocking regime in the long range compared to its op. counterpart.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How decent is the GGEM? Is it fairly good at this time range?

But it is showing something fairly similar to the Euro at 500. The polar jet phases with a southern s/w over the central plains and then amplifies. It just amplifies more on the ggem and phases in the retrograding low over the northeast, while the Euro amplifies it less and squashes it with the retrograding low, although it still manages a 995mb off the Carolinas. Good thing is they are both slower with S/W #2 and phasing it with some energy from the southwest, which I think has a much better chance at giving us snow than the GFS evolution which is faster with s/w #2 and doesn't phase it with the energy from the southwest. I think it's good the Euro and GGEM are in agreement on this, GFS out to lunch hopefully. You can see the southwest energy over the texas panhandle at hr 168 on the GFS after it has missed the phase with the polar jet energy over KY and NC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This post goes against everything I believe in...

BUT

if you extrapolate the 180 hr GGEM you can see that storm turning into a huge bomb off the NE coast.

Yeah it would start making a pretty good turn to the left if we could see another frame or two. The northern vortex is clearly phasing some energy into the main s/w. Fun solution to look at even though its in fantasy land.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z UKMET basically dampens out the shortwave to nil...and uses it to reinforce the large upper level low in the Gulf of Maine through 144 hours.

Edit: There's some nice shortwave energy over New Mexico at 144 hours which would likely become the next system.

I'm losing my confidence in the first shortwave. Models today seem to be crushing the initial wave and focusing on the follow-up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm losing my confidence in the first shortwave. Models today seem to be crushing the initial wave and focusing on the follow-up.

It's usually one or the other with these. If the first one craps out, it definitely could allow for the second s/w to really amplify, even without the Canadian solution of phasing the PV into it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's usually one or the other with these. If the first one craps out, it definitely could allow for the second s/w to really amplify, even without the Canadian solution of phasing the PV into it.

It's still possible the first one could produce something, but that block is just so strong. Stranger things have happened though..maybe we get a light event or something..who knows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's usually one or the other with these. If the first one craps out, it definitely could allow for the second s/w to really amplify, even without the Canadian solution of phasing the PV into it.

Yeah, that's one I made the comment. There seems to be a clear trend in the 12z runs thus far. Euro should be rolling out now so I guess that will be telling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...