Threat Thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

http://www.americanw...wilminton-mass/

[Typhoon Tip]

There GFS ensemble have a monster spread at 144h. There is no use in trying to pin down any solution until we are 48h closer. If we continue to see a suppressed look with that initial vortex...that means we'd be looking for more of a retrograde solution down the line. If the block/vortex eases off in the next several runs, then we'll probably trend toward a more straight forward redevelopment.

That pretty well sums up the current era, definitely -

I think this was missed or fell on deaf ears or whatever yesterday, but I posted fairly elaborately about taking that 12z Euro solution yesterday with a big grain of salt. There are mass field continuity changes from cycle to cycle that currently rivals any of the poore modeling eras in history. Most global numerical guidance (deterministic versions at that) are just doing really atrociously - including the wunder boy Euro - during this period of differentiating NAO.

I suppose that is typical because of all the delt(teleconnector) troubles that can afflict the synoptic handling, it is for some reason the back-logging effects of the NAO trainwreck that seems almost be the most problematic for the models.

That said, I still conclude as I have for 3 days (for those that have followed and followed the logic why ...) that the NAO can snow, but we are probablistically better situated at the bookends of the NAO flex. What was interesting about that 12z run yesterday is that the ECM got us to a snow storm but notice ... if we go back and look at the NAO domain it was entering a rapid relaxation as the system was taking off - in effect the model created a favorable playing field and whacked a homerun with it - but the handling of the NAO was and still is goig to be paramount; inherently, that insisted that model run be suspect.

I noticed CT_Rain had also asked if any others found that run to be far fetched? Uh, yeah, for 3 days actually

[Ginx snewx]

Apparently Will didn't think it was funny, look out ..........

[ORH_wxman]

Apparently Will didn't think it was funny, look out ..........

I thought it was funny, but I wasn't going to leave it up for more than 10 min.

[Ginx snewx]

I thought it was funny, but I wasn't going to leave it up for more than 10 min.

LOL

Couple more days of angst until we can say yea or nay to the next early week system, odds are something good pops next two weeks, lots of positives.

[CT Rain]

That pretty well sums up the current era, definitely -

I think this was missed or fell on deaf ears or whatever yesterday, but I posted fairly elaborately about taking that 12z Euro solution yesterday with a big grain of salt. There are mass field continuity changes from cycle to cycle that currently rivals any of the poore modeling eras in history. Most global numerical guidance (deterministic versions at that) are just doing really atrociously - including the wunder boy Euro - during this period of differentiating NAO.

I suppose that is typical because of all the delt(teleconnector) troubles that can afflict the synoptic handling, it is for some reason the back-logging effects of the NAO trainwreck that seems almost be the most problematic for the models.

That said, I still conclude as I have for 3 days (for those that have followed and followed the logic why ...) that the NAO can snow, but we are probablistically better situated at the bookends of the NAO flex. What was interesting about that 12z run yesterday is that the ECM got us to a snow storm but notice ... if we go back and look at the NAO domain it was entering a rapid relaxation as the system was taking off - in effect the model created a favorable playing field and whacked a homerun with it - but the handling of the NAO was and still is goig to be paramount; inherently, that insisted that model run be suspect.

I noticed CT_Rain had also asked if any others found that run to be far fetched? Uh, yeah, for 3 days actually

LOL I was being sarcastic. Who knows what happens... everything is all over the map. Lots of potential in this pattern but nothing is a lock.

[Ginx snewx]

That pretty well sums up the current era, definitely -

I think this was missed or fell on deaf ears or whatever yesterday, but I posted fairly elaborately about taking that 12z Euro solution yesterday with a big grain of salt. There are mass field continuity changes from cycle to cycle that currently rivals any of the poore modeling eras in history. Most global numerical guidance (deterministic versions at that) are just doing really atrociously - including the wunder boy Euro - during this period of differentiating NAO.

I suppose that is typical because of all the delt(teleconnector) troubles that can afflict the synoptic handling, it is for some reason the back-logging effects of the NAO trainwreck that seems almost be the most problematic for the models.

That said, I still conclude as I have for 3 days (for those that have followed and followed the logic why ...) that the NAO can snow, but we are probablistically better situated at the bookends of the NAO flex. What was interesting about that 12z run yesterday is that the ECM got us to a snow storm but notice ... if we go back and look at the NAO domain it was entering a rapid relaxation as the system was taking off - in effect the model created a favorable playing field and whacked a homerun with it - but the handling of the NAO was and still is goig to be paramount; inherently, that insisted that model run be suspect.

I noticed CT_Rain had also asked if any others found that run to be far fetched? Uh, yeah, for 3 days actually

Do you read posts after yours there were literally hours of discussion saying why the Euro might be off. I love your posts but it's almost like you are a hit and run poster. Many many people here made comments about all of the content of your post above. Not bitchin just an Obs.

[J.Spin]

I really hope you guys get some snow out of this though down there outside of the upslope regions, because it'll get annoying if Pete, J.Spin, and I are continuously posting snow obs. I remember growing up in Albany and posting on WWBB... I always used to get annoyed when I was partly sunny and 35F while the Lake Effect guys and upslope zones were constantly posting snow obs and pics.

Having everyone in the region under the umbrella of the New England subforum is great now, in that it feels much more inclusive, but I think your point above is a good one. We’re obviously going to have to feel out how the subforum plays through the winter months, but so far I’ve been planning to put my observations in the NNE thread unless a region-wide observations thread develops. Even with those threads it becomes difficult sometimes, because I try to be consistent in my reports, and during the final days of events when I’m adding my observations, nobody else is using the thread. At least the record of the observations is there however.

[ORH_wxman]

We briefly talked about this storm last night....but here is the the way it transpired....it had a mean vortex over NNE and big -NAO block:

Dec 22-25, 1961:

[CoastalWx]

That low ain't going far when the Davis Strait ridge connects with the pna ride out west.

[Ginx snewx]

We briefly talked about this storm last night....but here is the the way it transpired....it had a mean vortex over NNE and big -NAO block:

Dec 22-25, 1961:

Snow totals? I was four , trying to remember if this was my first snow memory. I know I remember an Easter one, but somewhere in the back of my mind is an earlier one.

[Damage In Tolland]

We briefly talked about this storm last night....but here is the the way it transpired....it had a mean vortex over NNE and big -NAO block:

Dec 22-25, 1961:

What did amounts look like for that in SNE?

[moneypitmike]

Immediate threat: it's gonna rain--a lot.

36.7/31

[dryslot]

Snow totals? I was four , trying to remember if this was my first snow memory. I know I remember an Easter one, but somewhere in the back of my mind is an earlier one.

I think the whole NE got slammed with that storm, Oh wait, I was only four as well, Never mind......

[ORH_wxman]

What did amounts look like for that in SNE?

9.0" at BOS (but massive gradient right on the shore), 20.2" for Ray, 17.6" at ORH, 15" at PVD, 7.5" at BDL. Big cutoff just E of the river valley too.

[weathafella]

I was 15 years old during the 12/22-25, 1961 period but ...gulp....I can't remember. A year later there was a huge block during the Holidays that resulted in windy and bitterly cold wx but frustratingly dry.

[Typhoon Tip]

Do you read posts after yours there were literally hours of discussion saying why the Euro might be off. I love your posts but it's almost like you are a hit and run poster. Many many people here made comments about all of the content of your post above. Not bitchin just an Obs.

No you pretty much nailed it - hit and run poster haha funny - but I don't really have any choice. I'm better at this on Saturday mornings when I can catch up.

Apologies.

[Ginx snewx]

I was 15 years old during the 12/22-25, 1961 period but ...gulp....I can't remember. A year later there was a huge block during the Holidays that resulted in windy and bitterly cold wx but frustratingly dry.

Was't Feb 61 one of the all time greats? I believe there was a really good snow in 1960 early Dec as well.

[CoastalWx]

Man the flow is just stretched out garbage across the US by hr 108.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe that upper level low over ND can do something down the road.

[ORH_wxman]

I was 15 years old during the 12/22-25, 1961 period but ...gulp....I can't remember. A year later there was a huge block during the Holidays that resulted in windy and bitterly cold wx but frustratingly dry.

If you were down near NYC, then it was a bit less memorable, but it was still an okay storm down there. I think they had a general 4-8".

[Damage In Tolland]

9.0" at BOS (but massive gradient right on the shore), 20.2" for Ray, 17.6" at ORH, 15" at PVD, 7.5" at BDL. Big cutoff just E of the river valley too.

What is different with the current setup(as depicted by models) for Dec 5-9.. from the setup for that event?

[weathafella]

Was't Feb 61 one of the all time greats? I believe there was a really god snow in 1960 early Dec as well.

1960-61 was the best winter of my life. But that was the previous year discussed to the 1961 period.

The reason 1960-61 was so great was for the great early December blizzard 12/11-12 which my area got nearly 2 feet for in NJ. Then relaxation but still snow chances followed by pattern reload for a month beginning in January and ending with the Feb 1961 blizzard. I can still see the big flakes near the coastal front pounding down the night of 2/3/61.......in our front light you could literally see them accumulate. I was then 14....and in full on weenie mode......a winter for the ages.

[ORH_wxman]

What is different with the current setup(as depicted by models) for Dec 5-9.. from the setup for that event?

Shortwave isn't as strong coming out of the plains and the vortex is currently a bit further south. A lot of the setup is the same, but the details make all the difference in the world.

Unfortunately we really won't have a clue on the details until we get closer. They have been flip flopping quite a bit.

[weathafella]

GFS wants to retrograde the low down through the GOMaine past 132 hours....lol..

[Baroclinic Zone]

Maybe that upper level low over ND can do something down the road.

Current system seems to be getting out of the way by (12z) 114h compared to (00z) 126h to allow for amplification to occur.

[weathafella]

actually no...into Canada maybe. Clusterfk.

[CoastalWx]

That's a pretty good ridge out west, and that strong s/w over the Plains wants to tilt less positively....maybe it tries something down the road.

[dryslot]

GFS wants to retrograde the low down through the GOMaine past 132 hours....lol..

Again......

[weathafella]

Witch's tit time on GFS.