Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah if that were to happen..what a dynamic storm, and everyone would see similar conditions too..lol. that's the ultimate thread the needle job too. about as good as it could work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 that's the ultimate thread the needle job too. about as good as it could work out. Man I would give up my firstborn for some blocking right now. These last few weeks could have been unbelievable if we had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Man I would give up my firstborn for some blocking right now. These last few weeks could have been unbelievable if we had it. Scooter.....thats downright wrong./:yikes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I wouldn't lock any trends in just yet. We are 6-7 days out and this can easily go to sh*t. True, but HPC has been liking the Euro on this for 3 days now so to see the GFS come to it is good. Big Highs in Ontario generally mean colder outcomes no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Man I would give up my firstborn for some blocking right now. These last few weeks could have been unbelievable if we had it. yeah this pattern had/has NNE written all over it. so many big qpf events but a big old fat se ridge and transient cold. hopefully something like the 12z gfs or yesterday's 12z ec run can come close to verifying. if not, for the sake of interesting weather i hope it doesn't just end up a meh fropa. i'd rather see a hvy rain event/torch and follow the hydro issues than watch a cold front come through with a quarter inch of rain followed by gusty W winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 True, but HPC has been liking the Euro on this for 3 days now so to see the GFS come to it is good. Big Highs in Ontario generally mean colder outcomes no? Well you could also have something the euro op has in which the trough just lifts out with no real flip to snow, or the 06z GFS in which low pressure developed and moved into NYC because the trough was a little more amped up. There are a few different solutions. It's not terribly hard to do something the GFS did and even the euro ensembles implied something like this..so there is some merit. It's also a little threading the needle too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 True, but HPC has been liking the Euro on this for 3 days now so to see the GFS come to it is good. Big Highs in Ontario generally mean colder outcomes no? well the euro hasn't exactly been stable on it though. the euro ens have displayed stronger run-to-run continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Scooter.....thats downright wrong./:yikes: It's a figure of speech, I obviously would never do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I wouldn't lock any trends in just yet. We are 6-7 days out and this can easily go to sh*t. Not locking,.just noting widespread colder trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 It's a figure of speech, I obviously would never do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Not locking,.just noting widespread colder trends Hopefully. At this stage I'll welcome anything. I'm rounding the final bend in the winter 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Hopefully. At this stage I'll welcome anything. I'm rounding the final bend in the winter 500. It is nice having the Euro ens cold and on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 It is nice having the Euro ens cold and on our side The only thing is that I can't tell how much QPF falls once the temp drops. There looks to be some, but most of the QPF is along the front. It might be a little better for Pete and up through NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The only thing is that I can't tell how much QPF falls once the temp drops. There looks to be some, but most of the QPF is along the front. It might be a little better for Pete and up through NNE. Plenty of time to work that out . With the exception of 1 or 2 posters I don't think anyone wants a widespread flooding rain event or even any rain at all for that matter. Most want snow or ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yeah if that were to happen..what a dynamic storm, and everyone would see similar conditions too..lol. Wow this would be the ultimate capper to a fantastic winter - flooding rains to rare ZR/IP for the immediate CP to a foot of blue snow. If there's any solution I'd pay for it's the 12z goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12Z Ensembles answer Kevin's snow prayers, lol...especially for the follow up low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Plenty of time to work that out . With the exception of 1 or 2 posters I don't think anyone wants a widespread flooding rain event or even any rain at all for that matter. Most want snow or ice my bad. go snow or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12Z Ensembles answer Kevin's snow prayers, lol...especially for the follow up low. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 give me blocking or give me death do we really think the 12z gfs or something very similiar is likely ...i mean scott would you think it more than 40-50% that we get at least 4+ inches of snow from a system like this ....or would it be heavy rain to sleet......then to a final burst of snow or something. i am hopeful but just trying to figure out how much of a long shot were dealin' with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 AWT. Lock in d10..lol. It's possible with that big high there and PV in Canada, but with no blocking...we know the other outcome too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 give me blocking or give me death do we really think the 12z gfs or something very similiar is likely ...i mean scott would you think it more than 40-50% that we get at least 4+ inches of snow from a system like this ....or would it be heavy rain to sleet......then to a final burst of snow or something. i am hopeful but just trying to figure out how much of a long shot were dealin' with I don't have the courage to throw out probs like that..lol, but I don't think it's unrealistic to envision some sort of wintry end. It's 7 days out, so lets not get carried away. In fact, it's not really worth talking about it all that much, since lots could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I don't have the courage to throw out probs like that..lol, but I don't think it's unrealistic to envision some sort of wintry end. It's 7 days out, so lets not get carried away. In fact, it's not really worth talking about it all that much, since lots could happen. I would wait until friday.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The Mar 5-7 storm has the potential to be the first true warm rainer since mid December for interior SNE. Since Dec 26, 2010 (beginning of the continuous snowpack for much of New England): BDL - only 0.08" of rain fell at temps above 35F (Jan 2, Feb 18) ORH - only 0.16" of rain fell at temps above 35F (Jan 2, Feb 18) CON - no rain fell at temps above 35F Are you sure about that for CON? New years eve/day was pretty toasty around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Plenty of time to work that out . With the exception of 1 or 2 posters I don't think anyone wants a widespread flooding rain event or even any rain at all for that matter. Most want snow or ice I hope no one really wants flooding to occur... why delight in other's misery? I don't begrudge warmth/sun/rain, but floods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 No rain fell on Jan 1 at CON. 0.04" fell on Jan 2, but all the measurable rain fell at a temp. of 35F. Are you sure about that for CON? New years eve/day was pretty toasty around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 No rain fell on Jan 1 at CON. 0.04" fell on Jan 2, but all the measurable rain fell at a temp. of 35F. a mere technicality lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 a mere technicality lol No it's not. His whole point is that we haven't had a warm rain storm since December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 my bad. go snow or go home. I've never seen anyone love rain and flooding so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The point I was trying to make is that while there have been a few torches for interior New England since late Dec, none have been accompanied by any substantial rain. a mere technicality lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Plenty of time to work that out . With the exception of 1 or 2 posters I don't think anyone wants a widespread flooding rain event or even any rain at all for that matter. Most want snow or ice If heavy, widespread flooding was a near-certainty, you would embrace it and fully welcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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