Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I never knew you were so into rain and flooding. Makes sense now..I just put all the pieces together i've never really seen a flood so can't say i'm into it or not. it doesn't happen down here. coastal flooding does obviously but other than urban area/street/basement type flooding the combo of sandy soil and no rivers makes flooding pretty much non-existent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Now you're sounding like MRG.. are you at home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Now you're sounding like MRG.. No, I was just pointing out where the traditional ice spots are...obviously it can ice a lot further S and e given the correct setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 This upcoming event looks very different from those past 3 in terms of the presence of a very strong, cold high over Quebec, as you noted. A pattern like that would tend to support more widespread ice, while a pattern with poor high placement and little cold air damming (as we saw in the Feb 5, 25 and 28 events) only supports icing in climo-favored areas. Feb 5- no high Feb 25 - 1035 mb high over the northern Rockies with arctic front oozing in toward end of event Feb 28 - ~1027 mb high retreating toward Newfoundland Three times in February alone...this past event you flipped to a 34F rain for hours and hours while it was 30-31F up in this area. Feb 25th event we iced all afternoon while you were mid 30s and rain, and then the Feb 5-6 event...marginal ice while it was all rain S of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 This upcoming event looks very different from those past 3 in terms of the presence of a very strong, cold high over Quebec, as you noted. A pattern like that would tend to support more widespread ice, while a pattern with poor high placement and little cold air damming (as we saw in the Feb 5, 25 and 28 events) only supports icing in climo-favored areas. Feb 5- no high Feb 25 - 1035 mb high over the northern Rockies with arctic front oozing in toward end of event Feb 28 - ~1027 mb high retreating toward Newfoundland I think it will just depend on how well the LL cold can get transported. Dec 11, 2008 had a 1033-ish well placed high over Quebec and the cold never really got S of the pike except in NW CT hills well over 1000 feet. If the sfc low stays decently SE, then it should be able to drag the cold pretty far SE too. Though in that case, it might mean more snow for the NW interior areas and maybe a stripe of icing further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Doesn't matter if there is a 1070 mb high over organizing low's shlong....I'll be 32.5* and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Heavy heavy low level cold, la la la lock it up Heavy rain to ice to IP to snow for all. Major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Doesn't matter if there is a 1070 mb high over organizing low's shlong....I'll be 32.5* and rain. thats a lot of pressure on my shlong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 From the trend on the models and the research energy peak on March 7th, I believe that a major snowstorm is almost a lock now, the question being what parts of New England and upstate NY get into the snow. Would say at this point the chances look best for w MA and nw CT as well as upstate NY, e ON, s QC, VT, n NH and inland Maine. Chances for eastern MA, RI and most of CT, LI, NYC seem to depend on storm becoming more intense without track shifting north. This is still plausible given the large-scale features. This could in fact be one of those events that looks fairly good at five days and then really good at 2-3 days, locking into an obvious "blizzard" scenario with model consensus. Keep your fingers crossed (unless you're one of those normal people who don't want a disruptive weather bomb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 From the trend on the models and the research energy peak on March 7th, I believe that a major snowstorm is almost a lock now, the question being what parts of New England and upstate NY get into the snow. Would say at this point the chances look best for w MA and nw CT as well as upstate NY, e ON, s QC, VT, n NH and inland Maine. Chances for eastern MA, RI and most of CT, LI, NYC seem to depend on storm becoming more intense without track shifting north. This is still plausible given the large-scale features. This could in fact be one of those events that looks fairly good at five days and then really good at 2-3 days, locking into an obvious "blizzard" scenario with model consensus. Keep your fingers crossed (unless you're one of those normal people who don't want a disruptive weather bomb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I wonder if this storm will finally melt my invincible snow pack.. I expected it would be all gone after I got back after this weekend.. but I still have a solid 4-5" in middle of open fields. 2 months of snowpack on the shore in SE CT .. who would of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 From the trend on the models and the research energy peak on March 7th, I believe that a major snowstorm is almost a lock now, the question being what parts of New England and upstate NY get into the snow. Would say at this point the chances look best for w MA and nw CT as well as upstate NY, e ON, s QC, VT, n NH and inland Maine. Chances for eastern MA, RI and most of CT, LI, NYC seem to depend on storm becoming more intense without track shifting north. This is still plausible given the large-scale features. This could in fact be one of those events that looks fairly good at five days and then really good at 2-3 days, locking into an obvious "blizzard" scenario with model consensus. Keep your fingers crossed (unless you're one of those normal people who don't want a disruptive weather bomb). .... do those things really ever happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I think it will just depend on how well the LL cold can get transported. Dec 11, 2008 had a 1033-ish well placed high over Quebec and the cold never really got S of the pike except in NW CT hills well over 1000 feet. If the sfc low stays decently SE, then it should be able to drag the cold pretty far SE too. Though in that case, it might mean more snow for the NW interior areas and maybe a stripe of icing further SE. Are there climo factors at play here? Off-hand I don't recall too many severe icing events in CNE after March 1. Not saying its impossible obviously, just wondering what the track record has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Doesn't matter if there is a 1070 mb high over organizing low's shlong....I'll be 32.5* and rain. .4999999999* too high, even at the 1m level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 lets face it... another "nobody wins" Tip special, 35* rain with a dusting at the end, identical to Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I wonder if this storm will finally melt my invincible snow pack.. I expected it would be all gone after I got back after this weekend.. but I still have a solid 4-5" in middle of open fields. 2 months of snowpack on the shore in SE CT .. who would of thought. We're still clinging to some snow on north-facing lawns and wooded areas...not solid coverage but not just piles either. It should stick around until the weekend's rain, been an incredible run for snowpack for those who live near the coast, the likes of which we may never see again. Real question is: can we add a few more snow cover days with the bomb the ECM shows in the LR? Cut-off season FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Funny that some think an ice storm can't happen in March considering the heavy icing we just had. That was in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Not psyched to hear about this ice potential. The last roof slide on Monday buried my gererator. I was fairly certain I'd be able to ride it out until the thaw. Now I'm beginning to think I may need to shovel it free on Saturday. 29.4/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I approve this message. And a lovely afternoon out here now ..down to 21F and windy. From the trend on the models and the research energy peak on March 7th, I believe that a major snowstorm is almost a lock now, the question being what parts of New England and upstate NY get into the snow. Would say at this point the chances look best for w MA and nw CT as well as upstate NY, e ON, s QC, VT, n NH and inland Maine. Chances for eastern MA, RI and most of CT, LI, NYC seem to depend on storm becoming more intense without track shifting north. This is still plausible given the large-scale features. This could in fact be one of those events that looks fairly good at five days and then really good at 2-3 days, locking into an obvious "blizzard" scenario with model consensus. Keep your fingers crossed (unless you're one of those normal people who don't want a disruptive weather bomb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I was down in Queens yesterday and pretty much gone all over the NYC area... I didn't see much solid cover on the west side of the river until I got above Newburgh. Some scattered in the woods yes. But the east side of the Hudson was catching those storms more being on the border of NE. Lots left here of course ...but Sunday won't help. We're still clinging to some snow on north-facing lawns and wooded areas...not solid coverage but not just piles either. It should stick around until the weekend's rain, been an incredible run for snowpack for those who live near the coast, the likes of which we may never see again. Real question is: can we add a few more snow cover days with the bomb the ECM shows in the LR? Cut-off season FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I approve this message. And a lovely afternoon out here now ..down to 21F and windy. Neither the ALY nor BOX AFD's are saying much about wintry with the upcoming systems. They ahve the front end snow in areas but seem to be talking mostly rain with lackluster comments re: wintry on the back end. Hmmmm I could go for a big blizzard to keep me from haivng to fly to IA on Tuesday....... 27.6/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Epic snows for VT NNh WMe WNY on the 0 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Epic snows for VT NNh WMe WNY on the 0 GFS At hour 200ish.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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