weathafella Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Kevin humps the 10 day Euro. At least he gets to sleep with a new model every 12 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Maybe the Euro ens were colder or less wet..who knows what will happen...just commenting on the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Maybe the Euro ens were colder or less wet..who knows what will happen...just commenting on the model They are very wet at first, but almost imply a flip to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 We are in for a long 8 months or so. I couldn't agree more. Maybe a 7-10 day good period and then 8 more months.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Euro implies 50's and rain all weekend. Bare ground to GAY is becoming more likely. You get so neurotic with respect to melting potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Holy convective feedback batman on the 12z GFS - 2.25-2.5" QPF in 6 hr around the benchmark. at Day 8. Looks like the GFS wants to throw a nice little overrunning 2-5" snowfall on March 5th before the cutter/cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skimore Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I just drove through that area yesterday. For all the oft-mentioned reasons (high ratios, nickle and dime events, significantly less snow S and E of airport, where it's measured, mega-efficient snow removal by front-end loaders), it all adds up to "meh". I'd take your one-month snow sprint over their 3-month snow-a-thon. here's 20 miles S of the city on tuesday before fridays snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 So snotty. Put me down for some Hinter any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Flood to snowstorm on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Flood to snowstorm on the euro? Lol...was just going to say that. Epic water to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Lol...was just going to say that. Epic water to snow. Did the euro have that over-running deal that the GFS showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Did the euro have that over-running deal that the GFS showed? Euro has a slow moving surface boundary that sags se over the course of a couple of days with copious rains on the Eastern side of it. But a storm develops along the southern flank of it off hatteras and moves ne just south of the bm concurrent with the surface boundary sagging offshore. So verbatim it goes from a major rain event to some sort of snow event. Fascinating outcome on that run. Maybe one of the only times all winter we've had 1040+mb hp north of nys and lp se of ack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 HPC still humping the Euro Ens...I think that is a good thing. FINAL...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE12Z/28 GFS AND GEFS MEAN CONTINUE TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE END OFTHE GUIDANCE WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES DURING THESECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE GEM GLOBAL IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z/28ECENS MEAN...A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. TARGETED RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED FOR THEPACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE PERIOD TO HELP SORT OUT THE CRITICALREGION BELIEVED TO HAVE BEARING ON THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Euro has a slow moving surface boundary that sags se over the course of a couple of days with copious rains on the Eastern side of it. But a storm develops along the southern flank of it off hatteras and moves ne just south of the bm concurrent with the surface boundary sagging offshore. So verbatim it goes from a major rain event to some sort of snow event. Fascinating outcome on that run. Maybe one of the only times all winter we've had 1040+mb hp north of nys and lp se of ack. HPC has that wavy front nne of its lows off the mid atlantic coast. Obviously this will shift a lot, but if there is a 1040ish H moving from Ontario into Quebec, and if the flow splits and slows down (as the Euro probably depicts), then a more SE solution would be able to evolve. Is there any blocking on the Euro? What is causing this to move slowly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Flood to snowstorm on the euro? As I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 As I thought. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The Mar 5-7 storm has the potential to be the first true warm rainer since mid December for interior SNE. Since Dec 26, 2010 (beginning of the continuous snowpack for much of New England): BDL - only 0.08" of rain fell at temps above 35F (Jan 2, Feb 18) ORH - only 0.16" of rain fell at temps above 35F (Jan 2, Feb 18) CON - no rain fell at temps above 35F Lol...was just going to say that. Epic water to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 lol I did, mentioned it earlier in this thread. For the interior , generally outside of SNE but maybe down there too, there's a fair chance of a coastal storm and a change to snow. the main deal might be the secondary rather than that ugly primary with 50s and extreme meridonal moisture feed/ heavy flooding...that is probably just a model fantasy for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The Mar 5-7 storm has the potential to be the first true warm rainer since mid December for interior SNE. Since Dec 26, 2010 (beginning of the continuous snowpack for much of New England): BDL - only 0.08" of rain fell at temps at or above 35F (Jan 2, Feb 18) ORH - only 0.16" of rain fell at temps at or above 35F (Jan 2, Feb 18) CON - no rain fell at temps at or above 35F Justin, do you think this is likely to trend in the warmer direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I did, mentioned it earlier in this thread. For the interior , generally outside of SNE but maybe down there too, there's a fair chance of a coastal storm and a change to snow. the main deal might be the secondary rather than that ugly primary with 50s and extreme meridonal moisture feed/ heavy flooding...that is probably just a model fantasy for now. That would be pretty interesting from a MET stand point. Flooding rains then a snowstorm. Personally I could do without the flooding rains, since I was going to go skiing this weekend but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Seems like the clock on the coastal plain seeing a good snowstorm this march has hit 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Seems like the clock on the coastal plain seeing a good snowstorm this march has hit 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Euro ensembles advertise something similar to the op for the d7-8 storm, but also have a biggie again in d10. It could be a tainter, but it's close to something better, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Euro ensembles advertise something similar to the op for the d7-8 storm, but also have a biggie again in d10. It could be a tainter, but it's close to something better, that's for sure. 2nd week of March finale FTW Plenty of storms, as long as I get one more storm with 6"+ snow I'll be satisfied with March. Of course I wouldn't mind if it was more then 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 i am fine with no more snow, living 5 miles in from the Narragansett bay's mouth you would expect a march simialr to this one, I told my friends mid feb my prediction of no more 6+ inch snowstorms are over, sticking with that conclusion till I see otherwise. BTW: first post that I have been given the Weenie. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 2nd week of March finale FTW Plenty of storms, as long as I get one more storm with 6"+ snow I'll be satisfied with March. Of course I wouldn't mind if it was more then 1... I def would not say it's a good pattern for snow events, but it should be watched. There is a monster high in Canada that ridges into the northeast US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Seems like the clock on the coastal plain seeing a good snowstorm this march has hit 0. How long have you lived in NE Cinderella? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I def would not say it's a good pattern for snow events, but it should be watched. There is a monster high in Canada that ridges into the northeast US. I knew you would respond with something like this or to not expect it to happen, LOL. Better then drizzle and 43F. At least we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 i am fine with no more snow, living 5 miles in from the Narragansett bay's mouth you would expect a march simialr to this one, I told my friends mid feb my prediction of no more 6+ inch snowstorms are over, sticking with that conclusion till I see otherwise. BTW: first post that I have been given the Weenie. haha haha I just weenied you cause the euro just showed 2 snowstorms over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I knew you would respond with something like this or to not expect it to happen, LOL. Better then drizzle and 43F. At least we have a chance. LOL, sometimes I feel like I have to put a caution statement out, because my comment can get spun around..but the whole thing is interesting imo. That's really all you can say when you're beyond a week out, no matter what the pattern. If anything I wouldn't be shocked if it cooled off slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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