March

[Marion_NC_WX]

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

245 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT

MOISTURE INTO THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND

NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY

NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE UP TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS

EXPECTED. WITH SOIL STILL MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL...FLOODING

WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-

SCZ001>007-010-090400-

/O.CON.KGSP.FA.A.0002.110309T1200Z-110310T1800Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-

MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-

SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-

GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-

POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-

GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-

GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...

HARTWELL...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...

WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...

HENDERSONVILLE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...

RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON

245 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND

UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN

NORTHEAST GEORGIA...FRANKLIN...HABERSHAM...HART...RABUN AND

STEPHENS. IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AVERY...BURKE

MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...EASTERN

MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL...

GREATER RUTHERFORD...GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL

MOUNTAINS...MACON...MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON...

POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON...

SWAIN...TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

ANDERSON...GREATER GREENVILLE...GREATER OCONEE...GREATER

PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS...PICKENS

MOUNTAINS AND SPARTANBURG.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY SATURATE ALREADY MOIST SOIL...

CAUSING RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND CREEKS.

* STREAMS AND CREEKS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE THE FIRST TO

FLOOD. AFTER PROLONGED RAINFALL...MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL BE

PRONE TO FLOODING AS WELL.

* THE HEAVY RAINFALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH WET SOILS FROM LAST

WEEKEND`S HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED MUDSLIDES OR

DEBRIS FLOWS ON UNSTABLE SLOPES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON

CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE

FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE

PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

[NavarreDon]

I noticed that this morning too. It was nice to read a thorough discussion for once. The weenie in me wanted them to mention the GEM but that was wishful thinking. I liked that there was a personal touch to the discussion like you would get out of GSP of BMX. Nothing will be better than the "I should have been a farmer" line from GSP though.

One of my favorite discos ever. That really was a special storm. I pulled it up from an old email.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --SOMETIMES I THINK I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FARMER. AT LONG LAST...WE

/THINK/ WE ARE GETTING A SOLID HANDLE ON THE UNFOLDING WINTER

WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SHARPLY AFTER

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...AS MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY

MESOSCALE AND EVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES.

AS OF 16Z...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS WELL ESTABLISHED

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DRIFT/EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST

WITH TIME. IN FACT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED

PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESS UNTIL

THE SURFACE LOW MAKES THE JUMP TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS

EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP WHERE ITS

ALREADY FALLING...AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT.

WE WILL NOW ADVERTISE 8-12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD

CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND BUMP THE I-40 PORTION OF THE

PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. AS USUAL...THE LOCALLY HIGHER

AMOUNTS CAVEAT APPLIES.

[FoothillsNC]

The RGEM and GGEM are slowly evolving toward a NAM blend along with Euro..the GFS is more an outlier now. No matter how you slice it, a major event with very impressive dynamics going on. For awhile as the trough is going neg. tilt, additional energy is diving in the western TN valley holding back the trough before it cuts off (or not) which will really deliver extreme dynamics across northeast GA , Upstate SC and central to western NC. Thats a period when extreme lift will develop along with a triple point low and some severe weather, backbuilding heavy duty rains and hailers develop as the cold is coming in aloft. This is one of the best looking storms to affect the Apps in a while, not to mention the severe thats possible Thursday as the triple pt and surface low deepens somewhat into eastern NC /Va en route to the tristate region.. Overall a great storm for many folks, with heavy rain, hail, winds, snow, thunderstorms, etc for many involved.I'm surprised the board is so quiet.

[kanc2001]

The RGEM and GGEM are slowly evolving toward a NAM blend along with Euro..the GFS is more an outlier now. No matter how you slice it, a major event with very impressive dynamics going on. For awhile as the trough is going neg. tilt, additional energy is diving in the western TN valley holding back the trough before it cuts off (or not) which will really deliver extreme dynamics across northeast GA , Upstate SC and central to western NC. Thats a period when extreme lift will develop along with a triple point low and some severe weather, backbuilding heavy duty rains and hailers develop as the cold is coming in aloft. This is one of the best looking storms to affect the Apps in a while, not to mention the severe thats possible Thursday as the triple pt and surface low deepens somewhat into eastern NC /Va en route to the tristate region.. Overall a great storm for many folks, with heavy rain, hail, winds, snow, thunderstorms, etc for many involved.I'm surprised the board is so quiet.

thanks, now will us SC coasties get some decent rain finally?

[NEGa]

you could be ground zero again atleast as far as heaviest rain accum. goes. No matter which model, they all have a max. rain in N to NE Ga and sw NC and spots in Alabama, much like last storm, with good reason too since the models all have the neg. tilt trough in a prime spot for the southern Apps region. As the first round of rain is sliding east, it re-builds over your region and if the NAM is right on the 850 winds then watch out for some serious flash flood issues in a very short time. Taken with the fact that area just experienced a major rain, this could get rivers and streams over their banks in a hurry. Throw in the high winds that almost always accompany Upper lows in March, and the prime time of midday partial clearing on Thursday over your area, that with steep lapse rates could yield you some flurries to go with the high winds. Wet soil, high winds, floods...what more could you ask for as an active weather lover. I'd be happy with just 2" of rain....almost made that with the last event.

That's for sure lol. Looking forward to a good rain storm...with winds and cold temps no less. 3" certainly looks doable at this point

I am with you and thought there'd be more activity here. This looks to be a really good storm for a lot of us with the potential for some good excitement tomorrow

[FoothillsNC]

thanks, now will us SC coasties get some decent rain finally?

I think the coast will get a good hit as the sfc. low in western SC or AHN region goes into central NC, dragging a good inflow off the Atlantic, with a narrow but intense wall of water oriented south to north, bending sse to nnw with time, with embedded severe. Probably more than last event.

[buckeyefan1]

CAE

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS

BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL

PLAINS. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT

FRONT...WITH SOME WEAK IN SITU WEDGING FOR THE NORTHERN FA EARLY.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE APPROACH

OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BATCH OF CONVECTION

IS PROGGED TO ROLL THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY TYPE

SITUATION...WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS AND HELICITY VALUES BUT LITTLE

TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER VORT/COLD POOL

LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMING

THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD LEAD ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS

OR THUNDERSTORMS TO PROVIDE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SYNOPTIC

WINDS COULD BE ON THE BREEZY TO WINDY SIDE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY NOW

TO PUT OUT AN EXTENDED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT TIME

PERIOD...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MODEL

CONSENSUS INDICATES SYSTEM PUSHING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...WITH

DRIER AIR AND CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

SPC...

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES...

MCS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD OVER SERN LA...SRN MS...AND WRN AL...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY

EMBEDDED SVR STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND

TORNADOES. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT

PROGRESS EWD DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE MCS WILL REACH

SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE BY 10/00Z...AND THEN DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER

NRN FL AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING

THE OVERNIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MID 60S SURFACE

DEWPOINTS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BENEATH A PLUME OF MODERATELY

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C PER KM/. THOUGH MODEL

GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE WIDESPREAD

/LIMITING SURFACE HEATING/...MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG APPEAR

PROBABLE GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE

WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL FAVOR DAMAGING

WINDS. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR...CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40 KT...WILL

ALSO LEAD TO A THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE

QLCS...AS WELL AS WITH ANY CELLULAR ACTIVITY FORMING AHEAD OF THE

LINE.

...GA AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC/ADJACENT CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION MAY AID IN SECONDARY SURFACE LOW

PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEDGE FRONT OVER GA AND THE CAROLINA

PIEDMONT. IF THIS TAKES PLACE...A TONGUE OF 60S DEWPOINTS/HIGHER

THETA-E AIR MAY EXTEND TOWARD CNTRL GA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE SLGT RISK MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NEWD INTO CNTRL GA IN LATER

OUTLOOKS IF FUTURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPMENT AND AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS GIVEN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL

HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE.

OTHERWISE...S-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN

ADVECTING MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN

AND ADJACENT CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY

/COUPLE HUNDRED J PER KG OF MUCAPE/ DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF

THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BY 10/06-12Z. GIVEN STRONG

ASCENT ENTERING THE REGION...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR PROFILES...A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED

OUT.

[Gastonwxman]

The RGEM and GGEM are slowly evolving toward a NAM blend along with Euro..the GFS is more an outlier now. No matter how you slice it, a major event with very impressive dynamics going on. For awhile as the trough is going neg. tilt, additional energy is diving in the western TN valley holding back the trough before it cuts off (or not) which will really deliver extreme dynamics across northeast GA , Upstate SC and central to western NC. Thats a period when extreme lift will develop along with a triple point low and some severe weather, backbuilding heavy duty rains and hailers develop as the cold is coming in aloft. This is one of the best looking storms to affect the Apps in a while, not to mention the severe thats possible Thursday as the triple pt and surface low deepens somewhat into eastern NC /Va en route to the tristate region.. Overall a great storm for many folks, with heavy rain, hail, winds, snow, thunderstorms, etc for many involved.I'm surprised the board is so quiet.

To me, this has the looks of something that I honestly don't think you could ask much more of. We have everything on board for a decent soaking event to affect the Carolinas and parts of GA with a nice hit of snow for the Apps, which I had a feeling they were never finished with winter weather despite the recently warm ups. I like the idea of us getting socked this go around (by that I mean getting in at least a couple of inches of rain) to really help alleviate the drought that we're currently under. This one will definitely be fun to watch unfold as we progress through the rest of this week.

If anyone has been paying attention to the radar, LA and MS have been getting some rough action down their way. Plenty of tornadic action down there earlier today (I believe a place called Greensburg, LA was one of them if I heard correctly). Currently, that area of activity is now affecting southern and central MS extending into portions of central and northern AL. We should see that eventually get into our area later Wednesday through a part of Thursday morning. Wouldn't be surprised if some folks report moderate to potentially large hail associated with any of the severe cells that do flare up and impressive wind speeds similar to that of our last severe outbreak but could be a tad stronger. The only downside though is the rapidly-rising threat of floods showing up with areas under the much more heavier bands of rain and storms that puts down heavy rainfall rates.

[ncjoaquin]

The RGEM and GGEM are slowly evolving toward a NAM blend along with Euro..the GFS is more an outlier now. No matter how you slice it, a major event with very impressive dynamics going on. For awhile as the trough is going neg. tilt, additional energy is diving in the western TN valley holding back the trough before it cuts off (or not) which will really deliver extreme dynamics across northeast GA , Upstate SC and central to western NC. Thats a period when extreme lift will develop along with a triple point low and some severe weather, backbuilding heavy duty rains and hailers develop as the cold is coming in aloft. This is one of the best looking storms to affect the Apps in a while, not to mention the severe thats possible Thursday as the triple pt and surface low deepens somewhat into eastern NC /Va en route to the tristate region.. Overall a great storm for many folks, with heavy rain, hail, winds, snow, thunderstorms, etc for many involved.I'm surprised the board is so quiet.

I wonder how bad flooding will be. I think it's a given that there will be flooding based on how high the creeks and streams were last time. ... And we have a head start with higher waters and wetter grounds to start this time.

[LithiaWx]

Bring on the 2-3+ inches of rain to Atlanta! I'm ready for some movies and games while listening to the rain pour!

[NavarreDon]

I wonder how bad flooding will be. I think it's a given that there will be flooding based on how high the creeks and streams were last time. ... And we have a head start with higher waters and wetter grounds to start this time.

J, I wouldn't be suprised to see some minor flooding from the Swannanoa river & the French Broad in the Asheville area if we get it like the models are showing.

[DaculaWeather]

The RGEM and GGEM are slowly evolving toward a NAM blend along with Euro..the GFS is more an outlier now. No matter how you slice it, a major event with very impressive dynamics going on. For awhile as the trough is going neg. tilt, additional energy is diving in the western TN valley holding back the trough before it cuts off (or not) which will really deliver extreme dynamics across northeast GA , Upstate SC and central to western NC. Thats a period when extreme lift will develop along with a triple point low and some severe weather, backbuilding heavy duty rains and hailers develop as the cold is coming in aloft. This is one of the best looking storms to affect the Apps in a while, not to mention the severe thats possible Thursday as the triple pt and surface low deepens somewhat into eastern NC /Va en route to the tristate region.. Overall a great storm for many folks, with heavy rain, hail, winds, snow, thunderstorms, etc for many involved.I'm surprised the board is so quiet.

I'm already impressed with what I see on the radar already.

[FoothillsNC]

I wonder how bad flooding will be. I think it's a given that there will be flooding based on how high the creeks and streams were last time. ... And we have a head start with higher waters and wetter grounds to start this time.

I think the straw that breaks the camels back this time could be the quick intensity of the heavy rains.Most models still have a rather unusual situation where the divergence aloft nearly stalls in the perfect spot to nail the Apps and western Piedmont around 36 to 42 hours. As the energy is coming into the neg. tilt trough, this will backbuild a line of super duty rain rates, in addition to the strong 850 flow around the big high, combined with a surface low developing in northern Georgia, so all factors point to some rates that could approach the rates of the Christmas 2010 storm in the Apps and Interstate 85 corridor from near Athens to Greensboro region and probably west to the mountains. The rates are what gets you. Creeks and rivers will quickly jump out , if you lack duration but have the rates. Fascinating system if it unfolds this way.

http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com

[oconeexman]

I think the straw that breaks the camels back this time could be the quick intensity of the heavy rains.Most models still have a rather unusual situation where the divergence aloft nearly stalls in the perfect spot to nail the Apps and western Piedmont around 36 to 42 hours. As the energy is coming into the neg. tilt trough, this will backbuild a line of super duty rain rates, in addition to the strong 850 flow around the big high, combined with a surface low developing in northern Georgia, so all factors point to some rates that could approach the rates of the Christmas 2010 storm in the Apps and Interstate 85 corridor from near Athens to Greensboro region and probably west to the mountains. The rates are what gets you. Creeks and rivers will quickly jump out , if you lack duration but have the rates. Fascinating system if it unfolds this way.

http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com

After the last event the creek below my house finally started shrinking back down a little today, yesterday was a small river. By this time tomorrow it will be out of it's banks and flooding the pasture...i'm ready to take some pics!

[DaculaWeather]

I have the Birmingham GRL3 radar going http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php Lots of lightning with these storms

[NavarreDon]

Should someone do an obs thread for the event or will this thread do?

[NCSNOW]

Just got the grass cut. The weed-n-feed and last weekends rain has my fescue in full throttle, despite some frosty mornings. Looking forward to this storm. Would love to get lucky and see some back end flakes, but I'll take all the rain mother nature can deliver. Hopefully this will become the new norm (above average precip) over the next 6 months.

[SnoJoe]

Why did they treat the roads in Yancey Co. this afternoon with that soapy water looking crap when it's going to rain and wash it all off ?

[Carvers Gap]

Should be wild during the next few days. For accumulating frozen precip in NE TN, I'd draw a line down I-81 and go east. I'd say Kingsport sees snow showers, JC may see minor accumulating snows. Looks like the airport has reported at least a trace of snow in November, December, January, February, and now March.

[FoothillsNC]

. Hopefully this will become the new norm (above average precip) over the next 6 months.

Youre already cutting grass? wow. I hope we're at the beginning stages of many months in a row of atleast average rains. Normally, after March, this area goes super dry. Only time will tell, but with a waning Nina ( I think) maybe there's hope for a new paradigm.

[Gastonwxman]

Just got the grass cut. The weed-n-feed and last weekends rain has my fescue in full throttle, despite some frosty mornings. Looking forward to this storm. Would love to get lucky and see some back end flakes, but I'll take all the rain mother nature can deliver. Hopefully this will become the new norm (above average precip) over the next 6 months.

Youre already cutting grass? wow. I hope we're at the beginning stages of many months in a row of atleast average rains. Normally, after March, this area goes super dry. Only time will tell, but with a waning Nina ( I think) maybe there's hope for a new paradigm.

Won't be long before the grass has to get cut here. Already the onion and dandelion weeds are taking over with the rapid grass growth. I'm going to wait until it quits raining for a while before cutting though. I agree though that getting in on at least average rainfall will be worth a day's worth of yardwork so as to not repeat long-term droughts.

[rosie]

My grass (weeds) are about ready for a mow, wish the rain could wait a few days.

[Lookout]

I think the straw that breaks the camels back this time could be the quick intensity of the heavy rains.Most models still have a rather unusual situation where the divergence aloft nearly stalls in the perfect spot to nail the Apps and western Piedmont around 36 to 42 hours. As the energy is coming into the neg. tilt trough, this will backbuild a line of super duty rain rates, in addition to the strong 850 flow around the big high, combined with a surface low developing in northern Georgia, so all factors point to some rates that could approach the rates of the Christmas 2010 storm in the Apps and Interstate 85 corridor from near Athens to Greensboro region and probably west to the mountains. The rates are what gets you. Creeks and rivers will quickly jump out , if you lack duration but have the rates. Fascinating system if it unfolds this way.

http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com

I haven't had time to follow this very much but I don't understand why ffc/gsp don't have the flood watch further south. Here is the current 6 hour FFG guidance and given model projections their watch doesn't seem to line up well with what is expected and the current ffg guidance.

Indeed, I can tell you this area is wet and has been wetter than most areas for a while. We did not get hammered a lot with the last one but my location has done very well with most systems the last several months. So I certainly think their watch doesn't go far enough south

[FoothillsNC]

just saw the 18z GFS . All models are now seeing something around 30 to 36 hours for the 85 corridor. We don't usually get this kind of rain in a short period, so it'll be interesting to see how far off the models are.

[FoothillsNC]

I haven't had time to follow this very much but I don't understand why ffc/gsp don't have the flash flood watch further south. Here is the current 6 hour FFG guidance and given model projections their watch doesn't seem to line up well with what is expected and the current ffg guidance.

Indeed, I can tell you this area is wet and has been wetter than most areas for a while. We did not get hammered a lot with the last one but my location has done very well with most systems the last several months. So I certainly think their watch doesn't go far enough south

I'm not sure why of a lot of things, like the rain in Asheville on Thursday. But I don't forecast there. I do see, like you, a major event, and have no doubts the models are all telling us there will be some flash flooding over a rather large region of real estate. I'm not positive they have it properly placed...its extremely unusual for my area to have a flood event, so my guess is that the worst is just west of here down to your area, or theres also the chance it could be more centered toward the piedmont around CLT to GSO or so. But right now, the models have alarm bells going off for the general 85 corridor AHN to GSO region. Guess we'll see pretty soon what happens.

[Lookout]

I'm not sure why of a lot of things, like the rain in Asheville on Thursday. But I don't forecast there. I do see, like you, a major event, and have no doubts the models are all telling us there will be some flash flooding over a rather large region of real estate. I'm not positive they have it properly placed...its extremely unusual for my area to have a flood event, so my guess is that the worst is just west of here down to your area, or theres also the chance it could be more centered toward the piedmont around CLT to GSO or so. But right now, the models have alarm bells going off for the general 85 corridor AHN to GSO region. Guess we'll see pretty soon what happens.

New nam really hammers the 85 corridor up to your area...heavier than the 18z run. Radar should be fun to watch during those times you indicated.

Interestingly, the 0z nam is quite a bit further south and stronger at 500mb vs the 18z run and now develops a cutoff 500mb low over the nc/va/ky border at 48 hours.

[POWERSTROKE]

Won't be long before the grass has to get cut here. Already the onion and dandelion weeds are taking over with the rapid grass growth. I'm going to wait until it quits raining for a while before cutting though. I agree though that getting in on at least average rainfall will be worth a day's worth of yardwork so as to not repeat long-term droughts.

we have a lot of grass we could cut. We cut a property today but really don't want to this early. Takes my profit a way on commercial contracts

[FoothillsNC]

New nam really hammers the 85 corridor up to your area...heavier than the 18z run. Radar should be fun to watch during those times you indicated.

just took a look at through 42 hours. If you want to see epic, not meaning the Charlie Sheen interviews, check out the 30 and 42 hours. It continues to hold the energy back as the neg. tilt trough develops. I don't recall ever seeing this play out like this here, with so much energy diving in, yet not quite cutting off. An absolute blistering goes on for somewhere between ATL and GSO region. Hopefully that dumps on me, but I won't be surprised to see it either further west slightly or futher east slightly. I'll never forget last years 9" forecast amount for this area, yet had less than 1". The mtns and the coast got hammered. Still a fun system to watch unfold.Someone is going to get some extreme rates.

[FoothillsNC]

pretty cold coming into the Southeast also. We've had 27 two mornings in a row, and the forecast low was nowhere near that. This airmass coming in is much colder, so I'm sure mid 20's are in order Fri and Sat. morning.

[Gastonwxman]

just took a look at through 42 hours. If you want to see epic, not meaning the Charlie Sheen interviews, check out the 30 and 42 hours. It continues to hold the energy back as the neg. tilt trough develops. I don't recall ever seeing this play out like this here, with so much energy diving in, yet not quite cutting off. An absolute blistering goes on for somewhere between ATL and GSO region. Hopefully that dumps on me, but I won't be surprised to see it either further west slightly or futher east slightly. I'll never forget last years 9" forecast amount for this area, yet had less than 1". The mtns and the coast got hammered. Still a fun system to watch unfold. Someone is going to get some extreme rates.

I'd say if anyone, it would be areas along and just east of the Apps down to portions of northern and central GA (possibly central AL) as winners of this rain event.

Sad that we don't have a setup allowing cold air to work with all of this. This would have been a widespread major winter storm for a good chunk of the SE otherwise but I'll take rain at this point. We do need this after all.