dryslot Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 the 48 hour products are running now. We will have the 12z Euro out before the GFS is done lol. Mentioned it earlier, The euro is already out to 24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 a weenie probably hacked into the 12z GFS lol Look for it to show a HECS at 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 a weenie probably hacked into the 12z GFS lol Look for it to show a BECS at 144hrs FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS really wants this storm to be a ptype mess next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS really wants this storm to be a ptype mess next week. Doesn't it make more sense for a more northern track with no blocking and a fairly strong SE ridge? Confluence is always overforecast this far out..If this isn't a perfect candidate for a N trend..i don't know what is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Doesn't it make more sense for a more northern track with no blocking and a fairly strong SE ridge? Confluence is always overforecast this far out..If this isn't a perfect candidate for a N trend..i don't know what is You don't want the GFS to trend further north though lol. There is blocking...a Davis Strait rex block...not massively strong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 gfs looks interesting north of the pike, for CT its rain. Garbage in, Garbage out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Snow and 10F on the Euro next Monday morning? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Doesn't it make more sense for a more northern track with no blocking and a fairly strong SE ridge? Confluence is always overforecast this far out..If this isn't a perfect candidate for a N trend..i don't know what is We actually have some blocking in the NAO region, but the ridge is not large, and is somewhat weak. The blocking is what is preventing this low from being a cutter...even on the GFS. However, the Euro and GFS are just night and day next week. I think the 00z Euro is a little too supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 the euro is very different from the gfs, still there's a vortex over NNE at 120 hrs. the gfs has it in SE canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Snow and 10F on the Euro next Monday morning? lol Thats more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro is going to send that low through the grinder, with that confluence in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Canadian is a nice compromise..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro is going to send that low through the grinder, with that confluence in Canada. lol. flurries don't even make it to pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I can't decipher the surface winds on the gfs graphic--what's that showing for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro is going to send that low through the grinder, with that confluence in Canada. Can't believe the difference between the Euro and GFS. The NAO block really isn't that strong but the Euro wants to drive that PV into New England. I doubt it ends up as close as it shows. My gut really tells me that suppression is probably not the worry with this system, but if the Euro holds steady for another day or two, then I might change my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Was the #2 analog over the east as of 00z 2/10/83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 You don't want the GFS to trend further north though lol. There is blocking...a Davis Strait rex block...not massively strong though. No no..I meant theEuro/GGEM idea of too far south. I'm not even factoring in the GFS at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Can't believe the difference between the Euro and GFS. The NAO block really isn't that strong but the Euro wants to drive that PV into New England. I doubt it ends up as close as it shows. My gut really tells me that suppression is probably not the worry with this system, but if the Euro holds steady for another day or two, then I might change my mind. Yeah I agree. I thought something closer to the GFS was the worry all along, but the euro is stubborn too. It's possible both are the extremes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 No no..I meant theEuro/GGEM idea of too far south. I'm not even factoring in the GFS at all LOL, you can't just ignore it...but you can incorporate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Pretty rare to see a polar vortex dive into northern New England like that, esp. with only weak blocking and a trough over NW Canada. I agree that the Euro is likely overdoing the southward push of the polar vortex. Something like the UKMET, with the vortex dropping to a position ESE of James Bay by Mon, makes more sense. Can't believe the difference between the Euro and GFS. The NAO block really isn't that strong but the Euro wants to drive that PV into New England. I doubt it ends up as close as it shows. My gut really tells me that suppression is probably not the worry with this system, but if the Euro holds steady for another day or two, then I might change my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 What was the qpf distribution from the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS sure opens up the freezer next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yeah I agree. I thought something closer to the GFS was the worry all along, but the euro is stubborn too. It's possible both are the extremes right now. Ukie and Canadian both seem like compromises...with Ukie a bit further N and GGEM a bit further south in that middle ground. I agree with Justin that a Ukie type solution of where the PV lobe sets up is probably not a bad idea to go with right now. We'll have to watch the Euro though closely...we still have to remember that this thing is 5+ days out...we started tracking it 2-3 days ago since the weather has been so boring. So its easy to fall into the trap of thinking solutions are locking in when in reality we still have an eternity (esp this winter) until we have any type of confidence. General pattern would certainly argue we have to worry about something further north like the GFS...but there isn't zero blocking and if that PV sets up in the right spot then it can push it decently south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 the 12z Euro has picked up where the 00z left off... The run could have replaced all those lines and colors and various physical parameters of the charts with a sentence that says, "Do not bother following the weather for at least 1 month because there will not be any", and that would have sufficed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We certainly have 2 vastly differnt camps here and i really hate having the GFS on our side up here, But on that note, Its been this way all winter, We will know on sunday what the outcome will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Ukie and Canadian both seem like compromises...with Ukie a bit further N and GGEM a bit further south in that middle ground. I agree with Justin that a Ukie type solution of where the PV lobe sets up is probably not a bad idea to go with right now. We'll have to watch the Euro though closely...we still have to remember that this thing is 5+ days out...we started tracking it 2-3 days ago since the weather has been so boring. So its easy to fall into the trap of thinking solutions are locking in when in reality we still have an eternity (esp this winter) until we have any type of confidence. General pattern would certainly argue we have to worry about something further north like the GFS...but there isn't zero blocking and if that PV sets up in the right spot then it can push it decently south. What did you mean snow and 10 degrees Monday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 For lack of a better phrase, someone needs to kick that SE ridge "in the balls" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 One thing that makes me concerned about suppression is that both the UKMET and GFS trended majorly toward the Euro. The UKMET shifted the polar vortex about 300 mi south vs. the previous run, while the GFS shifted it about 500 mi south. However, there is a lot of volatility in this pattern, and there's no guarantee the guidance won't reverse those trends. Ukie and Canadian both seem like compromises...with Ukie a bit further N and GGEM a bit further south in that middle ground. I agree with Justin that a Ukie type solution of where the PV lobe sets up is probably not a bad idea to go with right now. We'll have to watch the Euro though closely...we still have to remember that this thing is 5+ days out...we started tracking it 2-3 days ago since the weather has been so boring. So its easy to fall into the trap of thinking solutions are locking in when in reality we still have an eternity (esp this winter) until we have any type of confidence. General pattern would certainly argue we have to worry about something further north like the GFS...but there isn't zero blocking and if that PV sets up in the right spot then it can push it decently south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 What did you mean snow and 10 degrees Monday morning? Euro brought the pv into New England and an inverted/norlun type trough with it...so it gave like 1-2" of powder with temps in the teens. Thicknesses were like 500dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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