Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Mild to warm to Cold to cool to mild then back to cool/cold with a chance of snow during the next cold period. There is the 12 day forecast. So easy the geico caveman could do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 yeah you've been banging that drum nicely now for a while and it's definitely starting to show on some of the op runs too that there is a 1 to 3 day period of relaxation after this weekend/next week's initial cold shots (which, by the way, look pretty darn cold on the euro). I don't want to bang the drum too hard..lol, because it's not a definite imo. I'm just bringing it up so people aren't disappointed if it does happen. Basically, trying to avoid those weenie posts saying "Ugh what a disaster...this wasn't supposed to happen..." etc. That seems to happen, when the snowier solutions don't come to fruition. Personally, I hope it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 But who cares? It's not going to make it snow more or less? I just don't get why it effects people on an emotional level. Subjectively the op euro shows more torches than it does snow events through day ten. That's just the fact of the model. Doesn't mean it changes my day. Ding ding ding. Who cares if some think its going to be cold and some think warm. It's going to do what its going to do... and this board isn't just a cheerleading board for snow and cold. Its a weather board and I enjoy reading both sides of the cold/warm forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 But who cares? It's not going to make it snow more or less? I just don't get why it effects people on an emotional level. Subjectively the op euro shows more torches than it does snow events through day ten. That's just the fact of the model. Doesn't mean it changes my day. because it affects the quality of discussion....and it's generally against board rules. We all know some people troll too much and it derails threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Ding ding ding. Who cares if some think its going to be cold and some think warm. It's going to do what its going to do... and this board isn't just a cheerleading board for snow and cold. Its a weather board and I enjoy reading both sides of the cold/warm forecasts. it's not about warm vs. cold forecasts...it's about trolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Basically, trying to avoid those weenie posts saying "Ugh what a disaster...this wasn't supposed to happen..." etc. That seems to happen, when the snowier solutions don't come to fruition. On this board that translates to "Ugh what a disaster... this isn't want I wanted to happen..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 On this board that translates to "Ugh what a disaster... this isn't want I wanted to happen..." Ha ha...bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 it's not about warm vs. cold forecasts...it's about trolling... That's true, but honestly, anyone that mentions anything warm or not snowy is usually looked at as a troll. I'll admit that Forky post was a straight out troll, but that's usually the case when he comes to a SNE thread. When someone like Nzucker posts about warmer weather, he isn't trolling he's just stating what he thinks and a lot of folks treat that like a troll. Ryan gets accused of trolling all the time, too, when he mentions warmth, lol. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but this is such a cold-oriented board that warmth discussion is very taboo. That's when you start to get "Winter Appreciation Threads" and stuff like that, haha. God forbid someone mentions something other than -10F departures and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 because it affects the quality of discussion....and it's generally against board rules. We all know some people troll too much and it derails threads. Agree. It's the pointless one liners that bother me the most because they always generate a response. It's unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 because it affects the quality of discussion....and it's generally against board rules. We all know some people troll too much and it derails threads. The posts I read just stated the obvious. Ie what the ten day euro showed. Bottom line there seem to be few moderates here who think the pattern will be up and down cold/warm. The rest are aligned on the 1888 and al gore trains. It's getting old. Nobody here has talked much about the euro weeklies lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Heavy heavy winds Saturday. Yeah that signal just jeeps getting stronger. Pretty prolonged event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 That's true, but honestly, anyone that mentions anything warm or not snowy is usually looked at as a troll. I'll admit that Forky post was a straight out troll, but that's the case. When someone like Nzucker posts about warmer weather, he isn't trolling he's just stating what he thinks and a lot of folks treat that like a troll. Ryan gets accused of trolling all the time, too, when he mentions warmth, lol. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but this is such a cold-oriented board that warmth discussion is very taboo. That's when you start to get "Winter Appreciation Threads" and stuff like that, haha. God forbid someone mentions something other than -10F departures and snow. Ryan does troll sometimes...it's mostly to get a reaction out of Kevin...but yeah. I guess I troll sometimes too. NZucker is probably getting more flack because he was worried about the pattern in December and look how that turned out. I'd be worried about a gradient pattern where he lives too...but he'll get some opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Agree. It's the pointless one liners that bother me the most because they always generate a response. It's unnecessary. I've said over two boards and many months that stuff all needs to go but nobody seems to want to do it. So at some point if you can't beat them join them. This whole "warm thread". "less warm" "feels just right" and "day after tomorrow inbound" thread scheme was stupid too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The posts I read just stated the obvious. Ie what the ten day euro showed. Bottom line there seem to be few moderates here who think the pattern will be up and down cold/warm. The rest are aligned on the 1888 and al gore trains. It's getting old. Nobody here has talked much about the euro weeklies lately. I like Forky...but he's intent was to troll...plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The posts I read just stated the obvious. Ie what the ten day euro showed. Bottom line there seem to be few moderates here who think the pattern will be up and down cold/warm. The rest are aligned on the 1888 and al gore trains. It's getting old. Nobody here has talked much about the euro weeklies lately. They weren't bad until the second week of March. Even then, it shows a PV to the northeast, so it's possible the warmth is relegated to the Plains. Week 4 hasn't been all that stable lately, so I would view it no different if it were showing a -6SD block over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Anyway...at least there's some action to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The posts I read just stated the obvious. Ie what the ten day euro showed. Bottom line there seem to be few moderates here who think the pattern will be up and down cold/warm. The rest are aligned on the 1888 and al gore trains. It's getting old. Nobody here has talked much about the euro weeklies lately. see I don't get this...if someone mentions warmth they are being reasonable but when people mention cold and snow they are on the 1888 train? Your reality is skewed. I've seen plenty of quality posts about the upcoming pattern in this thread. What could go wrong...what looks good...what the chances are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Ryan does troll sometimes...it's mostly to get a reaction out of Kevin...but yeah. I guess I troll sometimes too. NZucker is probably getting more flack because he was worried about the pattern in December and look how that turned out. I'd be worried about a gradient pattern where he lives too...but he'll get some opportunities. Haha, yeah we all troll at times. I know I did it when I said the one-liner "12z GFS looks great for NNE" yesterday. We all troll at some point or another but inside these threads (in the forum where we belong) its sometimes fun to get a rise out of some of the regulars. People do it to me, too, haha... "cold and dry for NNE, big snow SNE." Heck, I mean MRG Pete trolls the coastal plain every single day, haha. A lot of folks on here have been here long enough to know posting patterns and when Forky jumps in to a SNE forum and posts a one-liner about warmth, well that's pretty clear cut case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Anyway...at least there's some action to track. Yep, looks interesting going forward for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Its a snowboard plain and simple, if you speak of warmth and you are not in the clique then you are a troll. If you are in the clique its ok. Come spring trolling is just fine, torch torch torch away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Anyway...at least there's some action to track. The usual damping of the wind signal does not seem to be occurring yet, perhaps a damaging event for some. Reminds me of a couple of winters back when at the end of a warm spell a freight train broke the mildness, I believe Stratton mountain had winds clocked in the 100 plus range. i remember sking Okemo the next day with mini whirlwinds everywhere in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The usual damping of the wind signal does not seem to be occurring yet, perhaps a damaging event for some. Reminds me of a couple of winters back when at the end of a warm spell a freight train broke the mildness, I believe Stratton mountain had winds clocked in the 100 plus range. i remeber sking Okemo the next day with mini whirlwinds everywhere in the AM. Yep, the damn looks to break over central pa, roaring winds downsloping across the coastal plain followed by some damn cold weather this weekend if the king is correct. Have some family coming into town on Saturday, guess I should tell them to bring the Cold gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 see I don't get this...if someone mentions warmth they are being reasonable but when people mention cold and snow they are on the 1888 train? Your reality is skewed. I've seen plenty of quality posts about the upcoming pattern in this thread. What could go wrong...what looks good...what the chances are. There are those calling for 1/2 to 3/4 of bostons normal total for the year in the next few weeks. There are those saying winter is over. Both extremes are ridiculous at this point in time when most everything close to reliable (inside of ten days) shows torches and cold outbreaks alternating which I think will be the dominant pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The usual damping of the wind signal does not seem to be occurring yet, perhaps a damaging event for some. Reminds me of a couple of winters back when at the end of a warm spell a freight train broke the mildness, I believe Stratton mountain had winds clocked in the 100 plus range. i remeber sking Okemo the next day with mini whirlwinds everywhere in the AM. 70-75 kt 850mb jet on strong cold advection on the Euro..that's pretty nuts. I look a good wind storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Heavy heavy winds Saturday. There's been a pretty consistent signal for that! BOX is talking advisory levels, at least along the coast. This far out, I would think that an unusual degree of confidence. Hopefully, it'll be more hww and encompass more than the coast. 15.4/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 There are those calling for 1/2 to 3/4 of bostons normal total for the year in the next few weeks. There are those saying winter is over. Both extremes are ridiculous at this point in time when most everything close to reliable (inside of ten days) shows torches and cold outbreaks alternating which I think will be the dominant pattern. Ray? w.e. He's been perfectly level headed. We'll see where the chips lie on March 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 I've been saying for a few days now, that we may see a 1-2 day warm up at the end of the month, as the NAO goes positive and more troughing develops over the west coast. The 00z GFS ensembles bring it in by the end of next week...a little quicker than the euro. However, it's not a definite thing because the Canadian and 06z GFS ensembles don't really show this, so not all guidance is on board. Right now, I kind of favor a brief milder spell for a day or two, but then it should turn colder by March 1st or so. After that, guidance does get interesting beyond March 1st. The euro ensembles are probably the coldest of all ensembles right now. Will said that not all the analogs were completely on board with a big cold and stormy stretch, and indeed the GFS is not perfect looking. It's showing the strongest negative PNA pattern of all the models, which means it pumps up the se ridge the most, right now. It's always good to have the best ensemble guidance on board, but models are guidance so you can't exactly throw out the GFS ensembles either. I do think that the pattern will feature some good wintry opportunities during early March, but some taint events could happen too. I like the overall look, with weak ridging into Greenland and the NPAC ridge (while not ideal) is in a position to at least help keep the cold closer to the nrn tier of the US. Take a look at the 00z GFS ensembles. You can see how the front is very close to the nrn tier of the US, and is visible just south of sne on March 2. It's good to have southern Canada cold, the complete 180 from last year, where Quebec torched. I think Will said yesterday that there may be one or 2 days that are mild late month but nothing like what we are seeing this week..and that the signal isn't nearly as strong as this current torch was on the ensembles. Next weeks event looks like a 3-6 type event at this point. Not a big one but a nice return back to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Maybe somebody can answer my concerns, with the trough digging in the west pumping heights along the EC, systems should ride to our north, however, if the KIng is correct and blocking is in place wont any storm get squeezed south and get shredded leaving us high and dry, how do we thread the needle so that sne cashes in on snow next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Heavy heavy winds Saturday. Both the GFS and Euro deliver HWW winds to all of SNE on Saturday. Gusts to 60 seem possible as of now. If I was BOX I'd dtart hammering damaging wind potential with theis afternoon's AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 unfortunately trolling is a board past-time. it's fine every now and then...in fact i think we all do it every-once-in-a-while...but there is a contingent of posters - we, and they, know who they are - that do it way way too much. it gets old quick. and frankly it's kind of weird. the best part is waking up to come on the board and seeing lots of pages of posts, expecting some good discussion...and instead it's just 100 back-and-forth garbage posts. oh well. Yes I agree, and responding to messenger...it's not so much the banter and friendly trolling...that can be fun and entertaining. But it is the sort of weird energy that the forky style trolling brings that bothers me. Now, does it really affect my day? Of course not much, but I enjoy both the weather discussion and the banter on here and don't like it when the banter takes on a strange feel. I have found that most often happens when non-New Englanders come in here and don't quite get the subtlety of New England style banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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